ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Lifesgud2]

Wow..Finally some good news that this will NOT hit Florida. I was thinking just yesterday that its time for the Hurricane run, but it sure does seem that that wont be neccessary.

[CronkPSU]

Wow..Finally some good news that this will NOT hit Florida. I was thinking just yesterday that its time for the Hurricane run, but it sure does seem that that wont be neccessary.

that seems pretty shortsighted to me and a little careless

[canegrl04]

92L should be upgraded to TD status before this afternoon

[gatorcane]

If the NHC cone does not include Florida then you can declare that you do not need to make that hurricane run but as of now I would think South Florida would be in the cone.

[Lowpressure]

Wow..Finally some good news that this will NOT hit Florida. I was thinking just yesterday that its time for the Hurricane run, but it sure does seem that that wont be neccessary.

Where does it say it will not hit Florida? Be cautious with INACCURATE comments like that, at this pont the system could go about any direction. Florida still has plenty of threat here, as do many others, ie Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and up the SE Coast.

[gatorcane]

Well-said, all of those areas LowPressure mentioned are at risk.

[HURAKAN]

[boca]

Wow..Finally some good news that this will NOT hit Florida. I was thinking just yesterday that its time for the Hurricane run, but it sure does seem that that wont be neccessary.

The models don't have a central to initialize on so still too early.

[hurricanefloyd5]

that was just dump!!!! why did you say this storm will not hit florida and you let your gaurd down for!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Lifesgud2 put your guard back upby the stuff you need to survive a Hurricane incase it changes!!!!!!!!!!

PS That is the kind of thinking that can get someone killed in a storm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

SAT-WED...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST SAT-SUN ALLOWS ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE TO START BUILDING WEST ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF MON. STABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN POP/S BELOW THEIR CLIMO VALUES.

OF INTEREST STARTING SUN IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. MODELS SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE ECMWF/CANADIAN OPEN WAVE TO THE GFS/NAM12 CLOSED SYSTEM. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THIS FEATURE.

MON THROUGH WED FORECAST DEPENDS ON WHETHER THERE IS A CLOSED SYSTEM TO THE EAST OR AN OPEN WAVE TRAVERSING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AFTER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DID NOT RAMP UP WINDS AS TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES OVER BAHAMA ISLANDS SUN-WED.

So if 92L stays weak it moves W to the FL Straits and if it deepens it will move E of FL?? Contradicts what some were saying?

[Lowpressure]

This may be the best looking invest I have ever seen. Dvorak must be puzzled with this system so far.

[alienstorm]

Looking at the High Resolution loop it looks like the LLC is located at 18N 61W... comments welcome....

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-60.0

[MiamiensisWx]

Was the 12Z best track fix released?

[HURAKAN]

[Lowpressure]

Looking at the High Resolution loop it looks like the LLC is located at 18N 61W... comments welcome....

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-60.0

To be honest, it is difficult to tell. One thing is for certain is that convection is exploding right now. If you are correct with the center estimate, recon may have a surprise or two for us later.

[MiamiensisWx]

What are the exact coordinates? Is the position near 18.0 N 61.2 W?

[Stratosphere747]

Was the 12Z best track fix released?

Further W...

AL, 92, 2008081412, , BEST, 0, 179N, 621W

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[MiamiensisWx]

The 12Z position appears to be incorrect... there are NO signs of a LLC near 62.1 W based on surface observations and satellite data. The formative LLC is farther east near 61.2 W, in my view.

Inaccurate fixes can lead to issues, since a TC is developing close to land.

[x-y-no]

Wow..Finally some good news that this will NOT hit Florida. I was thinking just yesterday that its time for the Hurricane run, but it sure does seem that that wont be neccessary.

The models don't have a central to initialize on so still too early.

I wouldn't have too much confidence in any solution regarding landfall yet. For instance, here's an excerpt from this mornings HPC prelim discussion:

THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COMPROMISE WAS WITH THE TROPICAL LOW
FORECAST TO CROSS FLORIDA MID NEXT WEEK...WHERE CONTINUITY FROM
YESTERDAYS 16Z HPC/NHC COORDINATION CALL WAS NUDGED NORTHWARD AND
EXTRAPOLATED ALONG AN EXTRA DAY. THIS TRACK IS MOST IN LINE WITH
THE 13/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z GFS WAS TOO WEAK WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS IT TO LOOP OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST SIMILAR TO OPHELIA IN 2005...USING A DEEPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TO LURE IT NORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA
BEFORE IT GETS BLOCKED. THIS WOULD BE A SINGULARLY UNIQUE TRACK
FOR AN AUGUST TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFY.

(emphasis mine)