ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[coreyl]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc02/ATL/10L.ISIDORE/ir/geo/1km/20020917.0102.goes-8.ir.x.99LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-167N-740W.jpg

It was farther north, but it did start out very far south like this one.

The shear doe's hold the key. If the shear don't destroy this system it could develop...Now what will it do and how strong will it gets is anyones guest. I don't think we should even try to guest how strong this will be intil its a cyclone. Because this thing has tricked us many of times.

How strong is the shear that you are guys are talking about?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc02/ATL/10L.ISIDORE/ir/geo/1km/20020917.0102.goes-8.ir.x.99LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-167N-740W.jpg

It was farther north, but it did start out very far south like this one.

The shear doe's hold the key. If the shear don't destroy this system it could develop...Now what will it do and how strong will it gets is anyones guest. I don't think we should even try to guest how strong this will be intil its a cyclone. Because this thing has tricked us many of times.

How strong is the shear that you are guys are talking about?

30 knots to the north and west of the "cyclone", but there is a small area of decreasing shear over the system its self. If the ULL don't move north, this should have chance. If not its dead.

[coreyl]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc02/ATL/10L.ISIDORE/ir/geo/1km/20020917.0102.goes-8.ir.x.99LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-167N-740W.jpg

It was farther north, but it did start out very far south like this one.

The shear doe's hold the key. If the shear don't destroy this system it could develop...Now what will it do and how strong will it gets is anyones guest. I don't think we should even try to guest how strong this will be intil its a cyclone. Because this thing has tricked us many of times.

How strong is the shear that you are guys are talking about?

30 knots to the north and west of the "cyclone", but there is a small area of decreasing shear over the system its self. If the ULL don't move north, this should have chance. If not its dead.

What is the ULL supposed to do, I mean are the models showing the ULL moving north?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How strong is the shear that you are guys are talking about?[/quote]

30 knots to the north and west of the "cyclone", but there is a small area of decreasing shear over the system its self. If the ULL don't move north, this should have chance. If not its dead.[/quote]

What is the ULL supposed to do, I mean are the models showing the ULL moving north?[/quote]

The Gfs forecasts it to head west-southwestward with the storm. Meaning this is dead storm spinning.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Meso]

Looking at the loops the deep convection has continued, but there is still quite a bit of shear present ahead.A positive thing for the system is the moist environment.While the convection looks decent, I can't say I see real visible organization as such (maybe a hint of what could be could be called organization over the last few frames, but that could just be increased convection).At the moment it looks like a good looking wave, NHC is forecasting shear to drop and if it does move into a better shear environment I think it will have a shot.Everything is weighing on the shear it seems.The fact that the EURO now shows development makes me think it has a bit more of a chance.My odds on it would be like 35-45% for development,which is pretty high.JMO.

[coreyl]

The fact that this invest is still hanging around makes me think it still has a chance of developing but I am having a hard time seeing it ever get in the gulf because it is at such a low latitude but who knows what will happen.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't get what the nhc is looking at? The shear maps don't look good at all...But anyways the cmc doe's finally move it northly out of the area by 72 hours, that helps form a cyclone. But that is still strong shear over the system even so. I don't understand why it is forming a cyclone in the middle of that.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Meso]

The EURO is almost showing the exact same thing as the CMC though, which is odd..The most conservative model vs the most bullish.Naturally the EURO shows weak winds, but I don't trust EURO intensity, it's even worse than the CMCs, just on the opposite end of the spectrum.EURO often forecasts 70km/h winds here when it's really 30km/h and it always has the Atlantic cyclones weaker than they are, especially as tropical storms.But the fact that the CMC and EURO have this at almost the exact same location as a storm makes me raise an eyebrow

[tailgater]

Sat. loop and radar loop (thanks NDG) looking a little better with each new image. I don't know if it's got a closed low yet but it's got to be very close to TD status. Awaiting lastest Dvorak numbers?
http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/ppi.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
bedtime for me

[KWT]

Convection really has flared up again as the Dmax is starting to come closer. Too early to know how organised ths is but convection really is powering up again if it can find lower shear in the western Caribbean this has got a real chance IMO.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection really has flared up again as the Dmax is starting to come closer. Too early to know how organised ths is but convection really is powering up again if it can find lower shear in the western Caribbean this has got a real chance IMO.

What lower shear? I can see what Derek Ortt see's. That is the models forecast the TUTT ULL to move west-southwestward with the system. Don't expect things to become to favorable.

[KWT]

Well I'm only saying what the NHC seems to think there will be more favorable conditions further west, there may well still be some shear on it but just lower then whats on it right now. We will see but I think that conditions will eventually lower further west, may not have much timre to strengthen by then however.

[KatDaddy]

From this mornings Hou-Gal AFD:

ALL EYES THEN TURN TOWARD TROPICAL
ACTIVITY THE 00Z MODELS HAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AREA. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR NEXT WEEK`S TUESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME PERIOD IF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR. STAY TUNED!

[KWT]

Interesting KatDaddy, they have to mention it simply because some of the models are trying to turn this system towards the US. I'll be surprsied if say last nights GFDL actually occured however.

[NDG]

Definitily the the pic some wanted to see this morning, this system is a fighter and is taking advantage of the lowering shear, ULL to its NW at least for now has helped in UL shear to change direction and weaken some. I really don't see how some still feel this is not going to further develop, we already knew that this had a closed low, so right now is in the process of developing a LLC, TD at least in a few hours.

[KWT]

Well the key is can it hold that sort of presentation til lrecon gets there, if it can then it may be able to develop a tighter circulation, its hard to tell though. Still looks like its being sheared but maybe not as badly as it was before.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

The LLC appears to be over land near 12 north/70 west. So no development.

Intil it moves back over water no reason to get excited.

[zaqxsw75050]

I don't get what the nhc is looking at? The shear maps don't look good at all...But anyways the cmc doe's finally move it northly out of the area by 72 hours, that helps form a cyclone. But that is still strong shear over the system even so. I don't understand why it is forming a cyclone in the middle of that.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Well, if you look at the model carefully, you can see there is a upper level anticyclone form in around 42 hours. If that's the case, the shear is created from the storm itself. Instead of restricting development, it would actually help if the solution actually happen.

[KWT]

Thats of course Matt if it even has a closed circulation at all, I would guess if it had a broad low that even if there was a LLVC over land it would get replaced quite quickly with a new one over water in that deep convection.

[Thunder44]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_1.html

The LLC appears to be over land near 12 north/70 west. So no development.

Intil it moves back over water no reason to get excited.

That QS image is from yesterday AM.