ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It doesn't have the best defined LLC, but it does have one. And, winds are at TS force now at flight level and at the surface. Unless the NHC waits for a better defined LLC, this is very likely Fay.

[funster]

Invests can't technically rapidly intensify - they can only get better organized. The pressure just doesn't drop fast enough to meet the criteria until a storm is much better organized.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes it has west winds. That 90% of the time=closed LLC. Waiting for a vortex!

[RL3AO]

Yes it has west winds. That 90% of the time=closed LLC. Waiting for a vortex!

You do realize they are flying at 11,000 feet?

[Honeyko]

With IR2 on the fritz, the Navy IR offers the most low-level definition for spotting banding, etc: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... JavaScript

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes it has west winds. That 90% of the time=closed LLC. Waiting for a vortex!

You do realize they are flying at 11,000 feet?

. This is close to land and they are not even trying to find a LLC, it just blows the mind.

I say they need to drop down in find a LLC. I pray they do that.

I think this is seriously close to being a tropical cyclone.

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

This mission has a specific purpose... it is not to go on a wild goose chase to possibly find a center

It is about collecting valuable research data from a developing tropical cyclone.

This flight eats up some of the research flight hours for the season

[TrekkerCC]

Yes it has west winds. That 90% of the time=closed LLC. Waiting for a vortex!

You do realize they are flying at 11,000 feet?

. This is close to land and they are not even trying to find a LLC, it just blows the mind.

I say they need to drop down in find a LLC. I pray they do that.

I think this is seriously close to being a tropical cyclone.

Matt,

If you look at the SFMR winds below...you see 25-35kt surface wind estimate over the MLC. This is suggestive that the circulation has not made it to the surface yet. It might do so later today or within the next 24 hours, but it doesn't appear now there is a LLC.

-Trek

[RL3AO]

BTW, the AF flight take off at 1pm ET.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 14/1800Z
B. AFXXX 04DDA INVEST
C. 14/1700Z
D. 18.0N 62.5W
E. 14/1700Z TO 15/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[wxmann_91]

While not in a "runaway intensification mode"...

Er, how much more impressive does an Invest have to be over the course of six hours to meet that criteria?

some pretty decent outflow channels are going to develop in the next 24-36 hr, you can see the classic shape on the 36 hr GFS 700mb map (gotta look at 200mb to see the ULL's that will provide the channels). I think TD later today.

80c tops are going to exhaust over the head of everything.

Whereas in previous days, 92 was being smothered by exhaust from SE coastal trough and Central American convection, now it's turn-table time. You just watch her anticyclone explode in all directions, and kill convective activity at its periphery.

(My preliminary hunch is that soon-to-be Fay will run right over PR and then beat her brains out on DR/Haiti; possible Gulf menace if whatever is left can manage to spin up south of Cuba rather than grind up the whole length of that island. E.g., Hurricane Frederick track.)

"Runaway intensification" implies some sort of RI. We're not there yet. And yes I agree that Fay's anticyclone is taking over... that's why it's strengthening tonight.

[Meso]

Continues to look good

[Blown Away]

So what has changed in the atmosphere that has 92L turning E of FL instead of going through the FL straits into the EGOM?

[Nimbus]

The convection was more consistant overnight and recon found a surface pressure of 1006. Last night at sunset it looked like 92L was starting to develop inflow and outflow so we probably already have a TD that has shown it can sustain itself.

edit: Any LLC still looks like it will be near the SW edge of the convection so don't expect RI this morning if the system is still not symmetrical.

Model trend seems to upping the intensity later in the run and has shifted right. The uncertainty about the ridge is likely to remain for a few model runs. At 72 hours out with upper air flights to establish the ridge we would have a lot better idea where this was going.

At this point I still think its questionable whether the track goes into the eastern gulf or up the east coast. Are there any models that are showing a strong system late in the forecast that don't have a trough digging east of LA?

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Firstly, it appears that a new LLC will relocate slightly farther northeast later today. Note that WV imagery and other data indicates upper level shear has been decreasing, as 92L has passed the shear zone. Note that the outflow boundaries emanating from the western semicircle have vanished, while a poleward outflow channel is developing west of the shear zone (aided by UL divergence). The 300 mb anticyclone is building west to the north of 92L. Additionally, note that the southwesterly low level cumulus (inflow) on the SW side are now shifting to south, possibly indicating the LLC is in the process of relocating slightly farther north and east under the convection. It will be interesting if ASOS/buoy data near the eastern Caribbean begins to support this hypothesis as we enter the morning (light) hours. Obviously, the relocation has not occurred as of now, but I believe it may likely occur today.

Regardless, this one will not miss the islands. Originally, I did not anticipate development until the system passed Puerto Rico; however, I now believe we may observe classification as a tropical cyclone over the Leewards during the late afternoon hours today. Based on the current movement, 92L will likely pass through the Leewards around noon today, and it will likely affect Puerto Rico early tomorrow (i.e. around midnight). Leewards/Puerto Rico will face a threat from localized flooding via heavy precipitation along elevated terrain. Tropical storm force gusts may likely occur in association with the strongest thunderstorms across the northern Leewards and off Puerto Rico.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Honeyko]

(My preliminary hunch is that soon-to-be Fay will run right over PR and then beat her brains out on DR/Haiti; possible Gulf menace if whatever is left can manage to spin up south of Cuba rather than grind up the whole length of that island. E.g., Hurricane Frederick track.)

This is precisely what the 06Z NOGAPS is now plotting:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008081406

[Blown Away]

(My preliminary hunch is that soon-to-be Fay will run right over PR and then beat her brains out on DR/Haiti; possible Gulf menace if whatever is left can manage to spin up south of Cuba rather than grind up the whole length of that island. E.g., Hurricane Frederick track.)

This is precisely what the 06Z NOGAPS is now plotting:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008081406

Much different Nogaps from 00z run, right?

[Meso]

FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE

[jlauderdal]

By jfaul4820

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Well this will be a nailbiter over the next few days for sure!

I have family in NC, and also at Myrtle. I also have someone that may need medical evacuation on the Florida Space coast, and just bought a new boat here on the west coast of Florida. No matter what this thing does....I'm gonna have some work to do!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

looks pretty obviously closed. maybe a litttle elongated, but closed.