ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[gatorcane]

Yes the fact the TUTT is pulling out (thanks to Bertha) is not good at all.

Lots of deep convection folks -- this thing is cranking and cranking quick as it moves generally westward.

[caribepr]

Hey just helping this thread to get as many pages a possible....
blah, blah.....

Is that the purpose, or even secondary goal, to 'get as many pages as possible'? <<<slaps own forhead in dizzying deja vu of times past>>>

Having the same feeling here...used to be posts personally, now we are trying to top pages for storms? When the discussion matters, good, when it's to make pages get longer (is this why some are not using smaller pics, or repeating posts with multiple pics, for space takers?) it hampers the flow of information.
But I've never been accused of being a competitive sort...

[RL3AO]

Upper low near the Bahamas is drifting north as it encounters the weakness left by an upper level trough as a shortwave approaches from the Southeastern United States. This should reduce the upper level shear over the central Caribbean Sea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Could this be something that lowers the shear in the Caribbean for the rest of the season? Or at least in the short term?

[MiamiensisWx]

Could this be something that lowers the shear in the Caribbean for the rest of the season? Or at least in the short term?

This will reduce the shear over the next several days across the central Caribbean basin.

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

[msbee]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is a look at a few historical storms to have moved through (or very near) the NE islands in a similar fashion to what the models now show 94L doing:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:David_1979_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bert ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Donna_1960_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Geor ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hugo_1989_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mari ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Jean ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1926 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1947 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Faith_1966_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Inez_1966_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gilb ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Luis_1995_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bonn ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Dean_2007_track.png

Now who knows whether or not 94L will decide to repeat history with any of these tracks or strengths, but it is still interesting to look at anyway and remember that beyond the islands, almost anybody could potentially be at risk.

That's nice. Two of those storms caused serious damage on St. Maarten......Donna and Luis.

[gatorcane]

Above models show South America is likely target. Sure they will flip flop.

It's pretty obvious what a "cone" will look like from above. Generally WNW. The shallow BAMs on the left would probably be disregarded given the tight global model consensus to take it WNW. Global models are more adept at picking up any weaknesses.

[MiamiensisWx]

Caribbean residents can feel free to browse my analysis for detailed information:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=101807&p=1734862&hilit=#p1734862

I would still monitor it very closely in all portions of the eastern Caribbean, including the Windwards and Leewards.

[ROCK]

Just by looking at the latest IR, 94L is not waiting around. I am thinking a LLC to be hatched around 10N-13n overnight and into tomorrow. Yes, TD tomorrow, IMO.

[kpost]

Don't forget this one from 1926.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1926_Nassau_Hurricane_track.png

[gatorcane]

I can almost guarantee you that as soon as this thing is named a depression and the cone is pointing WNW towards the SE Bahamas that the South Florida media outlets will be all over this.

[fci]

July may be a bit busy this year...or normal....or slow...you pick

Meaningless post award for July goes to......jaxfladude!

I agree. I welcome jaxfladude to discuse track and future strength with us. You can do it!

We can then expect a jaxfldude post on future track to be something like

"It looks like it will move either West, North , South or East at either a slow or fast speed and either maintain current strength, intensify or weaken."

[ROCK]

Above models show South America is likely target. Sure they will flip flop.

It's pretty obvious what a "cone" will look like from above. Generally WNW. The shallow BAMs on the left would probably be disregarded given the tight global model consensus to take it WNW. Global models are more adept at picking up any weaknesses.

I am waiting on a center to be established so models can digest possible track. Hard to say carib bound or Herbert Box 1....My thinking is consolidation likely to occur around 10N or a higher lat IMO. 94L is breaking off the ITCZ currently and becoming its own entity.

[gatorcane]

Indeed its looking like it could be a Herbert box candidate for sure but still not known. It's been a while since something somewhat viable has passed through the Herbert box (2004 was the last I believe).....Karen last year did..I think.. but she was doomed from the start.

[ROCK]

I can almost guarantee you that as soon as this thing is named a depression and the cone is pointing WNW towards the SE Bahamas that the South Florida media outlets will be all over this.

And.... oil will jump $5.00 as a result....Got love those commodity speculators...

[cycloneye]

You guys know me, I'm not one to jump on development potential whenever I see a cumulus cloud in the tropics. But I do think that this system has a good chance of becoming Cristobal this week. It's more than 24 hours away from a depression, probably 48 hours or more, but it's slowly organizing. As I look at the environment in its path I see considerable weakness in the ridge to its north as it nears the Caribbean. This should allow it to gain significant latitude over the coming days. I'd discard the current BAM runs taking into South America. They don't look realistic at all.

I think that the northeast Caribbean islands would be at greatest risk by Friday. Thereafter, we'll have to see just how weak the ridge to the north is and how strong Cristobal becomes (I've already created a Cristobal folder for my 2009 hurricane talks and I'm saving all images of this system there) by the time it reaches 60W. With Bertha still hanging around near Bermuda in 4-5 days, this might allow 94L to track more WNW-NW after reaching the NE Caribbean. Question is, does high pressure build in to its north, blocking it and shoving it west or does it take a path similar to Bertha but more west? My initial thought is the latter. Similar path to Bertha but more west before the turn north. I certainly wouldn't rule out an east coast threat at this point, but with the Bermuda high now so weak west of 60W I'm thinking a Gulf threat is not very likely.

I am reposting the great analysis from one of our pro mets wxman57 for those who haved not read it as it was posted late this morning.mj,these are the kind of posts that you want to see.

[fci]

I can almost guarantee you that as soon as this thing is named a depression and the cone is pointing WNW towards the SE Bahamas that the South Florida media outlets will be all over this.

And to an extent that would be justified.
Don't expect hourly updates but it is their job to keep people informed and anything in the tropics that could potentially affect South Florida warrants media attention.
We all blast the media if they ignore systems and then crucify them if they "are all over it".

[RL3AO]

Don't forget about chat!

http://www.esper.net/pjirc/storm2k.html

[Weatherfreak000]

I can almost guarantee you that as soon as this thing is named a depression and the cone is pointing WNW towards the SE Bahamas that the South Florida media outlets will be all over this.

I expect anytime a storm forms just about anywhere Florida outlets are all over it.