WPAC: Ex-TY Fengshen 0806 (07W) 1,300 dead

[HURAKAN]

Closer to landfall.

[Chacor]

Bulletin issued at 22:51 HKT 24/Jun/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The No. 8 Northeast Gale or Storm Signal was issued at
10:45 p.m.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per
hour or more are expected from the northeast quarter.

At 11 p.m., Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen was centred
about 100 kilometres south-southeast of Hong Kong
Observatory (near 21.5 degrees north 114.6 degrees east)
and is forecast to move north or north-northwest at about
16 kilometres per hour in the general direction of the
Pearl River Estuary.

Fengshen continues to edge closer to Hong Kong. Local
winds are strengthening gradually.

According to the present forecast track, Fengshen will be
closest to Hong Kong in the early morning, its centre might
even cross the territory of Hong Kong.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at
Cheung Chau and Sai Kung were 60 and 48 kilometres per hour
with maximum gusts 81 and 86 kilometres per hour
respectively.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow is it me or was this one of the worst forecasts ever made over here?

[P.K.]

Bulletin issued at 01:48 HKT 25/Jun/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The No. 8 Northwest Gale or Storm Signal is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per
hour or more are expected from the northwest quarter.

At 2 a.m., Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen was centred about
50 kilometres southeast of Hong Kong Observatory (near 22.0
degrees north 114.5 degrees east) and is forecast to move
north or north-northwest at about 14 kilometres per hour in
the general direction of Hong Kong.

According to the present track, Fengshen will be closest to
Hong Kong in the morning.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at
Chek Lap Kok and Sai Kung were 44 and 49 kilometres per
hour with maximum gusts 56 and 73 kilometres per hour
respectively.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 22.0N 114.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 24.1N 114.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 261800UTC 26.6N 116.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[JonathanBelles]

Good thing Fengshen/Frank weakened otherwise we'd be having another disaster on out hands.

[CajunMama]

I found out last night that the bookeeper for my husbands company was on a scuba diving vacation with a group of friends in the philippines. They tried to get out before "Frank" but were unable to. She finally landed in LAX today and should be home tonight.

[Ad Novoxium]

It's official: this was one of the all time worst forecasted storms ever.

[HurricaneRobert]

Looks like the center is going west of Hong Kong, not east (despite JTWC and JMAs forecasts).

[Chacor]

Bulletin issued at 07:59 HKT 25/Jun/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The No. 8 Southwest Gale or Storm Signal is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per
hour or more are expected from the southwest quarter.

At 8 a.m., Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen was centred about
50 kilometres north of Hong Kong Observatory (near 22.7
degrees north 114.1 degrees east) and is forecast to move
north or north-northwest at about 14 kilometres per hour
crossing the Pearl River Estuary area.

Fengshen is expected to gradually weaken after making
landfall. The Observatory will consider issuing Strong
Wind Signal No. 3 later this morning.

In the next few hours, Hong Kong will continue to be
affected by heavy rain. The public should remain on the
alert.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at
Chek Lap Kok and Cheung Chau were 58 and 63 kilometres per
hour with maximum gusts 76 and 89 kilometres per hour
respectively.

BETWEEN 6:45 AND 7:45 A.M., THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL RECORDED
IN VARIOUS REGIONS WERE:

TUEN MUN 59 MM;
YUEN LONG 48 MM;
LANTAU ISLAND 43 MM;
SHA TIN 29 MM;
CENTRAL & WESTERN DISTRICT 26 MM;
TAI PO 26 MM;
WAN CHAI 24 MM;
TSUEN WAN 24 MM;
NORTH DISTRICT 24 MM;
EASTERN DISTRICT 23 MM;
SAI KUNG 22 MM;
KWAI TSING 20 MM;
KOWLOON EAST 20 MM;
SOUTHERN DISTRICT 18 MM;
LAMMA ISLAND 18 MM;
KOWLOON WEST 17 MM.

25.4 mm = 1 inch.

[HURAKAN]

Landfall.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Fengshen really pulled a fast one on all the forecasting agencies. My friend was on Boracay during Fengshen and was just spared a direct hit. Now he's back in Hong Kong where he lives getting hit again!

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Made landfall.

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 114.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 114.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 24.1N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.1N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 114.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAD MADE LANDFALL TO THE
EAST OF HONG KONG AT APPROXIMATELY 242100Z. SHORTLY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL HONG KONG REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KNOTS.
250000Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT HONG KONG SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS SINCE ELONGATED AND BECOME OBSCURED BY CIRRUS BLOW OFF;
SUBSEQUENTLY, THE LLCC HAS BECOME INCREASING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.

[senorpepr]

ZCZC 034
WTPQ20 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0806 FENGSHEN (0806) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 22.7N 114.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 25.5N 114.3E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

[Sanibel]

Hong Kong is lucky this one didn't maintain intensity. Unpredictable Fengshen.

[senorpepr]

I'm trying something new here. I'm building a suite of tropical maps (observations, etc). My plan is to make synoptic scale charts (Caribbean, WPAC, etc) as well as storm floater maps.


I'll post this here as a test. This is the SFC pressure/plots floater for Fengshen.
As I build more, I'll make them public. (Maybe I'll even host them somewhere)


(This image should update at 40 past each hour. Check time stamp in the corner for transmit time.)

[Aslkahuna]

I've seen a lot worse busts by JTWC in the past. If one looks up the 1974 ATCR Forecast Verification stats one will find that the storm with the worst track forecast error for the year was TY Irma whic, ironically, was a straight runner but being late November it was forecast to recurve north consistently until 24 hours before landfall in Luzon and at that they missed the track across the island having it pass north of Clark by some distance when the center of the eye passed just south of the base. They also underestimated the reintensification after an eyewall replacement and called it 95 kt at landfall when based upon later studies of late season storms it was probably closer to 115 to 120kt. Had it been a 95kt storm it would not have had a circular well defined eye 3 hours after landfall and we would not have gotten raked as bad as we did.

Steve

[Chacor]

865
WTPQ20 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 23.3N 113.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 110NM SOUTH 80NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 25.5N 113.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Still looks decent.


JMA still going with an NE track while JTWC has once again flip-flopped and is now going with a NW track.

[HURAKAN]

And the over-forecasted turn to the NE never happened.