ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[CourierPR]

JMO she will start to move to the NW by tonight. I say 11PM update. She is moving now to the west

Let the parochial prognostications begin.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

x-y-no and NEXRAD thanks for the response on the high..

Next question. I see some deep-layer ridging building in from the north on this WV loop heading down the EC of the CONUS.

Am I seeing this right and could this not steer Hanna on the left side of the NHC cone (a ECMWF/UKMET solution) towards peninsula FL, specifically Southern FL?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

I could be wrong, but will high pressure build in between Gustav and Hanna as Gustav weakens and moves out or will Gustav leave a big weakness behind somewhat like a trough that will turn everything north as it attempts to move west

[AdamFirst]

Does anyone else feel a false sense of complacency in terms for South Florida with this storm? I don't see alot of people talking about it

[ROCK]

x-y-no and NEXRAD thanks for the response on the high..

Next question. I see some deep-layer ridging building in from the north on this WV loop heading down the EC of the CONUS.

Am I seeing this right and could this not steer Hanna on the left side of the NHC cone (a ECMWF/UKMET solution) towards peninsula FL, specifically Southern FL?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

I could be wrong, but will high pressure build in between Gustav and Hanna as Gustav weakens and moves out or will Gustav leave a big weakness behind somewhat like a trough that will turn everything north as it attempts to move west

The Ohio high is moving off to the east which will allow Gus to proceed northward, as that high builds in from the west, Hanna will move west......timing is everything....does it hold for a FL hit? or does the next trof weaken it and allow Hanna track up the EC?....

[captain east]

Does anyone else feel a false sense of complacency in terms for South Florida with this storm? I don't see alot of people talking about it

Ya, when ever I tell my parents there like nahh, it's not gonna hit... or Ohh, it's only a Tropical Storm.

[NEXRAD]

The steering flow is out of the north in the upper levels, out of the northeast in the mid-levels, and easterly in the lower levels. Overall, Hanna will persist on a general west track over the next 12 to 18 hours. If anything, some further SW jogs can be anticipated. If the storm were to move northwest it'd encounter much greater shear and would then likely weaken.

- Jay

[hial2]

Does anyone else feel a false sense of complacency in terms for South Florida with this storm? I don't see alot of people talking about it

I talked on the phone w/my mother..she told me it's coming my way (N.C) "according to the cone"..My family in S.Fl is b-b-q ing and not concerned AT ALL,despite my advice..

[fasterdisaster]

983.6 millibars fits, for now, the definition of rapid deepening.

[Chacor]

171330 2224N 07228W 8419 01386 9838 +244 +170 287009 012 026 003 03

[gatorcane]

Does anyone else feel a false sense of complacency in terms for South Florida with this storm? I don't see alot of people talking about it

I talked on the phone w/my mother..she told me it's coming my way (N.C) "according to the cone"..My family in S.Fl is b-b-q ing and not concerned AT ALL,despite my advice..

I am finding there is virtually no concern here in South Florida with Hanna. The most concern I saw was ironically earlier this week when the cone was point at the East Coast of Florida but still not touching it. If one extrapolated out the line it would have been an East Florida problem.

People simply will follow the NHC line and not the cone, no matter what you say. That's why I liked Stewart's 5am discussion this morning that mentioned only a slight shift west makes Hanna a threat to FL. Rhome elected not to mention this possibility though.

[El Nino]

983.6 millibars fits, for now, the definition of rapid deepening.

Is that REALLY official ?

[storms in NC]

JMO she will start to move to the NW by tonight. I say 11PM update. She is moving now to the west

Why? I see no evidence of that.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]



Brent you know better than any one. Once a storm gets stronger it will most of the time (Not all the time)take on a more Northern path. Not a straight North but I do think a WNW then NW to be the pattern here. We don't know what she will do but what she is doing right now. They Did not call for her to be a cat 1 either. But she is or will be soon. So it is just a matter or time and timing to what she is going to do.

[fasterdisaster]

983.6 millibars fits, for now, the definition of rapid deepening.

Is that REALLY official ?

I misread it, it's 983.8, but that still fits rapid deepening. Sorry.

[StJoe]

Does anyone else feel a false sense of complacency in terms for South Florida with this storm? I don't see alot of people talking about it

I talked on the phone w/my mother..she told me it's coming my way (N.C) "according to the cone"..My family in S.Fl is b-b-q ing and not concerned AT ALL,despite my advice..

I am finding there is virtually no concern here in South Florida with Hanna. The most concern I saw was ironically earlier this week when the cone was point at the East Coast of Florida but still not touching it.

People simply will follow the NHC line and not the cone, no matter what you say.

Maybe we are all in a state of denial??? We have a storm that is literally at our door step within the next couple of days...

[cpdaman]

983.6 millibars fits, for now, the definition of rapid deepening.

well we need more time to determine this IMO

previous VDM was estimated i believe as lowest pressure on first pass was found in 34 knot winds

also overnite and into the moring the high "offical mb reading from the NHC" were just best estimates, and this has clearly been IMO at 990 or lower since 3 am (based on turks and caicos observations combined with short term track observations)

[Chacor]

Vortex message shows 985 mbar, 64 kt sfc, BANDING EVIDENT IN CENTER BUT STILL NO TRUE INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE ON RADAR.

[NEXRAD]

Brent you know better than any one. Once a storm gets stronger it will most of the time (Not all the time)take on a more Northern path. Not a straight North but I do think a WNW then NW to be the pattern here. We don't know what she will do but what she is doing right now. They Did not call for her to be a cat 1 either. But she is or will be soon. So it is just a matter or time and timing to what she is going to do.

A deeper, stronger, storm will experience greater steering influence from the mid and upper levels than a weaker system, and this will be especially true if Hanna maintains such robust convection. The mid and upper level (H50 through H25) steering patterns will maintain a mostly northerly component over the system alla ridging aloft over Florida and the Ern Gulf of Mexico through mid-week. The Atlantic ridge is being held in place, aloft, from the combined influence of Hanna and the Eward moving trough axis well north of the tropical cyclone. The southerly flow around the western axis of the Atlantic ridge will eventually begin to exert a greater influence on the storm, however, not until late Wednesday or Thursday based on the guidance I've reviewed.

The GFS has shifted steadily left with the 06Z and 12Z runs, and the UKMET has kept its left "outlier" track per the 12Z output. I'd expect the 12 and 18Z guidance to shift left with a deeper early-period Hanna.

- Jay

[Bob R]

NHC website now lists HURRICANE HANNA.

[miamijaaz]

Hurricane Hanna:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 011731
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HANNA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
130 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...HANNA BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

AT 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 130 PM AST...1730Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST...OR VERY NEAR
MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HANNA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. THE TURKS ISLAND JUST REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...95 KP/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 130 PM AST POSITION...22.4 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[bahamaswx]

If we accept that pressure was probably in the low 990's as of early this morning (~3am), then this is merely slow strengthening, and certainly not 'RI'.