ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Probably a shift to the south in the track I'd say

No, that would be deemed "unacceptable"
Sorry....

No Hanna your track cannot shift left!



Signed:

East Coast Floridians:

[NEXRAD]

Can someone answer what the anticyclonic turning I see is just West of the FL peninsula...?

That seems to be a high pressure system and some kind of narrow ridge over Florida....that seperates Hanna and Gustav.

Wonder if that will impact the steering currents for Hanna?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

The anticyclonic turning is caused by ridging aloft. It's quite visible with the upper level wind data (from CIMSS for example, or even the RUC/2 analysis).

- Jay

[fasterdisaster]

Probably a shift to the south in the track I'd say

No, that would be deemed "unacceptable"
Sorry....

Hey I'm right there with ya buddy.

[NCWeatherChic]

Question here...at a 77kts or so FL winds for Hanna, what would that say for surface winds? How does this convert? Hope that made sense. I know what I am trying to say but my head wont allow me to get the words out correctly after the hydrocodone I took (just had surgery).

The 77 knots flight level translates to a rough 61 to 69 knot surface wind. The general rule is to reduce the flight level winds by 10 to 20 percent to get an estimate on surface winds, though the percentage varies depending on the actual flight level.

- Jay

Thanks Jay!!!!

[NEXRAD]

She definitely has a forming eye. I don't know how you can miss it.

Per the 1615Z imagery, I still don't see an eye or even an eye-like signature.

- Jay

[cpdaman]

1248 and 1258 recon data sets Should have this storms NE quad


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i'm am afraid she MAY be undergoing RI, i hope not

What makes you think so. What parameters have you seen to indicate this?

i have been watching the MB reading at turk and caicos like a hawk for the last 12 hours, and the fall at turks and caicos this morning (about 2mb in last hour) as the storm moves slowly away, is deeply concerning to me

just saying this MAYBE the start of such intensification. not saying it has or is, but those observations and the deep convection taking the shape of a cirlce with a comma in last few hours.

also from 1035 to 1256 pressure fell 4 mb at turks and caicos from 993.5 to 989.7 as storm is drifting away.

[HURAKAN]

She definitely has a forming eye. I don't know how you can miss it.

Per the 1615Z imagery, I still don't see an eye or even an eye-like signature.

- Jay

[gatorcane]

x-y-no and NEXRAD thanks for the response on the high..

Next question. I see some deep-layer ridging building in from the north on this WV loop heading down the EC of the CONUS.

Am I seeing this right and could this not steer Hanna on the left side of the NHC cone (a ECMWF/UKMET solution) towards peninsula FL, specifically Southern FL?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Chacor]

Comma-shaped, but still a ways off from an eye.

[meteorologyman]

I'm curious how wide the LLC or the eye is and if it's changing in size?

[fasterdisaster]

Comma-shaped, but still a ways off from an eye.

Nevertheless, it is a forming eye.

[NEXRAD]

I've noticed the comma shaped lower cloud tops, but per the IR and IRWV, this looks more like an artifact of stronger banding forming in Hanna's SE quadrant than any tell-tale eye development.

- Jay

[Brent]

WOW, what is she going to do when Gustav's outflow stops hurting her?

[NCWeatherChic]

Here is a video on youtube of Hurricane Hunters in Felix...I like it....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxYfl-inCw8

[storms in NC]

JMO she will start to move to the NW by tonight. I say 11PM update. She is moving now to the west

[fasterdisaster]

JMO she will start to move to the NW by tonight. I say 11PM update. She is moving now to the west

The forecast doesn't even call for her to move NW until tomorrow night.

[HURAKAN]

169
URNT15 KNHC 011707
AF301 0208A HANNA HDOB 22 20080901
165630 2309N 07153W 8431 01472 9985 +172 +170 137062 064 050 003 00
165700 2308N 07154W 8436 01466 9984 +171 +170 138065 066 046 002 00
165730 2306N 07155W 8432 01467 9981 +175 +170 136064 066 047 003 00
165800 2305N 07156W 8423 01475 9976 +183 +170 133065 066 050 003 00
165830 2304N 07157W 8423 01473 9968 +191 +170 133064 066 048 003 00
165900 2303N 07159W 8434 01460 9959 +196 +170 133060 060 051 002 00
165930 2302N 07200W 8428 01457 9948 +204 +170 132056 058 052 002 00
170000 2301N 07201W 8422 01461 9941 +208 +170 128054 057 054 002 00
170030 2300N 07202W 8432 01443 9931 +217 +170 125050 052 057 001 00
170100 2258N 07204W 8435 01438 9921 +228 +170 121045 047 059 001 00
170130 2257N 07205W 8426 01448 9917 +232 +170 118043 045 060 000 03
170200 2256N 07206W 8428 01440 9911 +235 +170 119046 051 063 003 00
170230 2255N 07207W 8430 01435 9919 +217 +170 121054 057 061 000 00
170300 2253N 07209W 8429 01439 9925 +202 +170 128054 055 060 000 00
170330 2252N 07210W 8424 01437 9918 +205 +170 127054 055 058 001 00
170400 2251N 07211W 8430 01429 9920 +199 +170 125060 062 062 001 00
170430 2250N 07212W 8427 01430 9920 +191 +170 126064 067 061 000 00
170500 2249N 07213W 8428 01422 9910 +196 +170 125060 063 062 000 00
170530 2247N 07215W 8428 01420 9901 +204 +170 123050 055 062 000 00
170600 2246N 07216W 8432 01409 9895 +204 +170 124041 045 063 000 00
$$

Getting closer to the eye. SFMR supports a hurricane.

[deltadog03]

WOW, what is she going to do when Gustav's outflow stops hurting her?

That concerns me too Brent...If she keeps trucking a little further west, she will be out of his outflow and generate outflow of her own.

[x-y-no]

x-y-no and NEXRAD thanks for the response on the high..

Next question. I see some deep-layer ridging building in from the north on this WV loop heading down the EC of the CONUS.

Am I seeing this right and could this not steer Hanna on the left side of the NHC cone (a ECMWF/UKMET solution) towards peninsula FL, specifically Southern FL?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

I don't see any ridge building - there's a moderate mid and upper level ridge over Florida, that's it. Pretty much the scenario the global models have been showing for days.

The question of steering two to four days down the road is more one of how much the Bermuda high builds in after that big trough starts lifting out.

[Brent]

JMO she will start to move to the NW by tonight. I say 11PM update. She is moving now to the west

Why? I see no evidence of that.