ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

cpdaman · #2101 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:17 am

latest satelite trends (updated thru 1202 pm)

show convection indeed building back north and west (so much for shear)

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... e&itype=ir

#2102 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:19 am

160730 2141N 07106W 8430 01504 0038 +141 +141 172068 070 052 010 00
160800 2143N 07106W 8431 01502 0037 +144 +144 172067 068 051 010 00
160900 2147N 07106W 8431 01496 0032 +146 +146 170069 070 050 008 00
160930 2149N 07106W 8429 01501 0032 +148 +148 169069 070 050 008 00
161000 2152N 07106W 8424 01506 0035 +146 +146 168067 068 049 008 00
161030 2154N 07106W 8436 01495 0041 +137 +137 168064 068 051 009 00

68+ knots FL winds in the EQ.

#2103 Postby **AJC3** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:19 am

Chacor wrote: Turks and Caicos are a British territory, but the Bahamas issues warnings for them.

Thx for the clarification. Wasn't exacly sure about this...though I should have known this by now!

cpdaman · #2104 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:21 am

AJC3 wrote:
Chacor wrote: Turks and Caicos are a British territory, but the Bahamas issues warnings for them.

Thx for the clarification. Wasn't exacly sure about this...though I should have known this by now!

AJC3 arent' you a bit concerned this could blow up to a major in the next 24 hours

(i mean a slight mis forecast of shear by models) seems like it puts this thing in waters that are extremely dangerous) not saying the shear forecat is right or wrong, also what do you see with hanna

captain east · #2105 Postby **captain east** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:23 am

starting to find the eye....
*click it for full size img*

Hurricanewatcher2007 · #2106 Postby **Hurricanewatcher2007** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:23 am

HURAKAN wrote:160730 2141N 07106W 8430 01504 0038 +141 +141 172068 070 052 010 00
160800 2143N 07106W 8431 01502 0037 +144 +144 172067 068 051 010 00
160900 2147N 07106W 8431 01496 0032 +146 +146 170069 070 050 008 00
160930 2149N 07106W 8429 01501 0032 +148 +148 169069 070 050 008 00
161000 2152N 07106W 8424 01506 0035 +146 +146 168067 068 049 008 00
161030 2154N 07106W 8436 01495 0041 +137 +137 168064 068 051 009 00

68+ knots FL winds in the EQ.

Theres some 70kts there as well. They are still moving north toward the East quad so there will be stronger winds then that once they start in toward the center.

#2107 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:23 am

It seem I did know what I was talking about the morning when I said it would be a hurrican by this afternoon. Hummmmm
now If I knew where it was going too. Oh Yeah Forgot Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

I said yesterday NC didn't I? that way I know it wouldn't come this way. So where does it go? Fla? Ga-SC or SC-NC
But I really don't buy the Ga-SC. Maybe SC.

Just Joshing You · #2108 Postby **Just Joshing You** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:24 am

Those are pretty strong winds for being so far away from Center. Interested to see what the NE quadrant holds.. may be a Cane.

greels · #2109 Postby **greels** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:25 am

Our alerts being issued from our DM office are coming from Nassau.

I have been involved with DM here for a little over 2 years now .

#2110 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:25 am

storms in NC wrote:It seem I did know what I was talking about the morning when I said it would be a hurrican by this afternoon. Hummmmm
now If I knew where it was going too. Oh Yeah Forgot Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I said yesterday NC didn't I? that way I know it wouldn't come this way. So where does it go? Fla? Ga-SC or SC-NC
But I really don't buy the Ga-SC. Maybe SC.

IMO, it's either you or me!

jk

typhoon_tim · #2111 Postby **typhoon_tim** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:27 am

storms in NC wrote:It seem I did know what I was talking about the morning when I said it would be a hurrican by this afternoon. Hummmmm
now If I knew where it was going too. Oh Yeah Forgot Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I said yesterday NC didn't I? that way I know it wouldn't come this way. So where does it go? Fla? Ga-SC or SC-NC
But I really don't buy the Ga-SC. Maybe SC.[/quote]

I tend to agree.... but that's the climatologist in me 8-)

Chacor · #2112 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:28 am

Changed to 6-hourly fixes for tomorrow.

NOUS42 KNHC 011630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT MON 01 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID O2/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-093 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM HANNA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70.....CHANGED
A. 02/1800,03/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0308A HANNA
C. 02/1530Z
D. 23.7N 74.0W
E. 02/1700Z TO 03/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49.....NO CHANGE
A. 03/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0408A HANNA
C. 02/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71....CHANGED
A. 03/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0508A HANNA
C. 03/0330Z
D. 24.2N 74.5W
E. 03/0500Z TO 03/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
A G-IV MISSION FOR 04/0000Z.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

#2113 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:28 am

162530 2253N 07112W 8437 01488 0025 +150 +150 158076 077 047 002 00
162600 2255N 07111W 8430 01496 0023 +157 +157 157075 077 046 002 00

77 knots FL winds

#2114 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:30 am

HURAKAN wrote:162530 2253N 07112W 8437 01488 0025 +150 +150 158076 077 047 002 00
162600 2255N 07111W 8430 01496 0023 +157 +157 157075 077 046 002 00

77 knots FL winds

Can you tell me where they think the LLC is rate now?

CourierPR · #2115 Postby **CourierPR** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:30 am

storms in NC wrote:It seem I did know what I was talking about the morning when I said it would be a hurrican by this afternoon. Hummmmm
now If I knew where it was going too. Oh Yeah Forgot Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I said yesterday NC didn't I? that way I know it wouldn't come this way. So where does it go? Fla? Ga-SC or SC-NC
But I really don't buy the Ga-SC. Maybe SC.[/quote]SC may be only one of multiple landfalls if she takes a coastal ride, beginning in FL

DESTRUCTION5 · #2116 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:30 am

HURAKAN wrote:162530 2253N 07112W 8437 01488 0025 +150 +150 158076 077 047 002 00
162600 2255N 07111W 8430 01496 0023 +157 +157 157075 077 046 002 00

77 knots FL winds

Now we have a Cane

apocalypt-flyer · #2117 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:30 am

That equals 65kts. LOVELY. Not.

#2118 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:30 am

may be a hurricane I think look at the recon data.

#2119 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:30 am

Hurricane?

Scorpion · #2120 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:31 am

This wasn't even that close to the center.. I think higher winds will be found.

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