ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[RL3AO]

the 2 A.M. is AST

Which is the same time as EDT(meaning it's 2am EDT also).

Anyway, I still think this looks good.

AST is one hour ahead of eastern//

AST = EDT

AST is one hour ahead of EST, not EDT.

[Blown Away]

If the NHC classifies this as a TD this morning, will the 5 day track line make it to SFL, I'm sure the cone will?

[cheezyWXguy]

If the NHC classifies this as a TD this morning, will the 5 day track line make it to SFL, I'm sure the cone will?

should be at least 5 or 6 days, due to weak steering currents near florida.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.scc-ares-races.org/utcchart.html

[boca]

I think the track will miss us to the east based upon the 00GFS so far. Maybe the western most edge of the cone. Just an opinion.

[Bocadude85]

I doubt they would pick a landfall point.. probably just keep it off the coast

[txag2005]

Even though this flight is research, will they still do recon?

[Blown Away]

I think the track will miss us to the east based upon the 00GFS so far. Maybe the western most edge of the cone. Just an opinion.

The 18z GFS loops back and landfalls in SFL and the GFDL skirts just E of SFL??

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Bocadude85]

I think the track will miss us to the east based upon the 00GFS so far. Maybe the western most edge of the cone. Just an opinion.

Take a look at the high the ooz gfs builds in....

[boca]

I think the track will miss us to the east based upon the 00GFS so far. Maybe the western most edge of the cone. Just an opinion.

The 18z GFS loops back and landfalls in SFL and the GFDL skirts just E of SFL??

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

The 00GFS kicks it out 200 miles to our ENE between 132hrs and 156hrs. Further away than the 18z model runs.

[haml8]

Is this where you think the LLC will pop up Derek? IF it does??

[boca]

I think the track will miss us to the east based upon the 00GFS so far. Maybe the western most edge of the cone. Just an opinion.

Take a look at the high the ooz gfs builds in....

Why does it look like its kicking this out between 132 and 156hrs.Wierd.

[Aric Dunn]

i would look in that area .. but most likely closer to the convection where ther is more convergence

[Zip]

What is known about the ultimate size of tropical cyclones? What causes a storm, say Katrina, to grow so large in diameter, and a storm like the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 to remain small and tightly wound?

Is there a time in the life cycle of a given system when one "knows" if it will be large or small?

I'm thinking 92L looks like the kind of system that has the potential to be small, but possibly viscious. Or maybe in a few days, after leaving the dry air behind, 92L expands a windfield to huge size (assuming it develops at all, which is looking more and more likely, to me, anyway)...?

Thanks

[cheezyWXguy]

Is this where you think the LLC will pop up Derek? IF it does??

No I dont believe thats what he was referring to, but Im not him. But with such favorable upper level winds occuring, the center would likely form underneath convection. The obviously strong mlc is a good indication that this is strengthening, and a llc could form underneath it in the next 12 hours.

[ConvergenceZone]

So where's Mecklenberg tonight?


If this forms, I'll be eating crow, that's for sure....

[Stormcenter]

What is known about the ultimate size of tropical cyclones? What causes a storm, say Katrina, to grow so large in diameter, and a storm like the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 to remain small and tightly wound?

Is there a time in the life cycle of a given system when one "knows" if it will be large or small?

I'm thinking 92L looks like the kind of system that has the potential to be small, but possibly viscious. Or maybe in a few days, after leaving the dry air behind, 92L expands a windfield to huge size (assuming it develops at all, which is looking more and more likely, to me, anyway)...?

Thanks

Hugo type?

[haml8]

Is this where you think the LLC will pop up Derek? IF it does??

No I dont believe thats what he was referring to, but Im not him. But with such favorable upper level winds occuring, the center would likely form underneath convection. The obviously strong mlc is a good indication that this is strengthening, and a llc could form underneath it in the next 12 hours.

Thanks for the feedback, he had mentioned something earlier abou watching 18N, so that is why I asked. Still learning here but unless I ask questions I won't get anywhere thanks again.

[cheezyWXguy]

So where's Mecklenberg tonight?


If this forms, I'll be eating crow, that's for sure....

I believe he was banned. Thank God.

[Aric Dunn]

What is known about the ultimate size of tropical cyclones? What causes a storm, say Katrina, to grow so large in diameter, and a storm like the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 to remain small and tightly wound?

Is there a time in the life cycle of a given system when one "knows" if it will be large or small?

I'm thinking 92L looks like the kind of system that has the potential to be small, but possibly viscious. Or maybe in a few days, after leaving the dry air behind, 92L expands a windfield to huge size (assuming it develops at all, which is looking more and more likely, to me, anyway)...?

Thanks

lots of questions..

to answer the size part..
alot is due to the environment its in, for instance a very moist surrounding will likely lead to a larger expansive system ( not all the time)
when a system is sourrounded by dry air then typically you have smaller more compact system ( again not always the case) Annular hurricanes is a good example..

and there is no time that i know of that we can tell if it will bne large or small .. as they often "shed" outer rainbands when they become full fledged hurricanes..