ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cycloneye]

It would surprise me if they send the plane.

[cycloneye]

They dont slam the door completly:

341
ABNT20 KNHC 171137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FORMATION HAS LESSENED TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

[Thunder44]

Looks a little better than it did, just two hours ago, because it between the two shear zones you see on this map, right now:

[tailgater]

Well I guess I'm in disagreement with most on this Forum because I think it's got a fairly good chance at development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

The wave axis (94L) has just about cleared the trof axis this morning. It was the approach of the trof axis that enhanced the thunderstorm activity yesterday morning. It's currently being impacted by northwesterly winds aloft (shear) and increasing low-level flow (shear), so it will be very difficult for thunderstorms to organize and persist over any one area. So it'll most likely just race westward at 20-25 mph and move ashore into Mexico/Central America over the weekend as a tropical wave. Development chances aren't nonexistent, but they're no better than with any of the waves that moved through the Caribbean over the past few weeks.

It appears that the current convective pulse in the East Pacific and Atlantic may be coming to an end soon. Maybe now we can have a few quiet weeks before the season really gets going.

[jasons2k]

Well, I ate crow with this one, next please.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

wxman57, do you think this perhaps would have a better shot after (if) it makes the EPac?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think its is dead, but will note Isla Margarita, Venezuela has a West wind at 6 mph at 11ºN, 64ºW.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Isla Margarita is the elongated East-West island in above satellite pic just above Venezuela. Pressure has risen from 1011 to 1012 mb last hour, which would be expected as apparently axis of wave (with weak low pressure) is moving past.

[NDG]

After all, it appears it still has a broad surface closed low. If it can only get a break from the shear.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

AL, 94, 2008071712, , BEST, 0, 126N, 642W, 30, 1009,

30 knots.

[tailgater]

I think its is dead, but will note Isla Margarita, Venezuela has a West wind at 6 mph at 11ºN, 64ºW.

Fairly evident with that ob that 94L has a good low level structure, with a west wind on a system moving 20 mph a good bit to it's north.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[cycloneye]

A tad slower than yesterday.

LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 64.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT

[Thunder44]

Here are some microwave images this morning showing the sprial rainbands:

[Sanibel]

Of course there's always the option that it simmers at this level all the way across. Tropical weather watching has a way of humiliating you with the option you failed to consider. July Caribbean hostility prevails. The further south this tracks the less chance for development. I'm sure I don't need to say some of us will be looking for refire and rebound like it did before.


12.8N-64.2W

[cycloneye]

[miachele]

Another Mexico traveler here (Yucatan).
Seems like it's fizzling out - good news hurricane wise - but are we just gonna get slammed with rain EVERYDAY while we're there?
We're leaving this weekend, coming back the following weekend (July 20-26).
Thanks for the updates guys.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Another Mexico traveler here (Yucatan).
Seems like it's fizzling out - good news hurricane wise - but are we just gonna get slammed with rain EVERYDAY while we're there?
We're leaving this weekend, coming back the following weekend (July 20-26).
Thanks for the updates guys.

If I'm not mistaken, with the wave frequency about once every three days, roughly two days out of every three will have decent enough weather barring development, which seems somewhat unlikely.


Probably a reason why hotels get cheaper around the Caribbean in the Summer and early Autumn...