#2036 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 16, 2008 11:17 pm
my (UNPROFESSIONAL) take on the 0z GFS. I agree with MWatkins, it initialized a little too far north(on the coast of CUBA). I think she is heading west still, and GFS proceeds pretty quickly with WNW. The slow speed off the coast of FL concerns me not only for flooding concerns and what not but it could be an indicator that the steering currents really weaken in a couple days. It pretty much stalls it over Tallahasssee. If I had to go out on a limb here I would say Pensacola is looking way more likely than anything East of the Keys. Ultimately if you go with the trends I feel like thinks will shake out somewhere near Apalachicola to Panama City. Lots can change though. It could slam in to Cedar Key moving due North, But I feel at this point that is about as probable as a landfall inthe western FL panhandle. Once she really gets going we should start to have a better idea. If I lived anywhere from Mobile Bay to Miami I would be watching this quite closely. Yes I said Mobile. I know it isnt currently in the cone but I suspect if things continue as they are it eventually will be the western edge of the cone. The other thing...we all know this is the Gulf, and slow movement(even with most of the models predicting it) means that a lot can happen.
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