ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Sanibel]

Yes, I was thinking that we've seen 20mph systems that did develop at that forward speed. You can see the NNW shear on satellite loops. It even put a dent in 94L's NE side. Never the less I think Derek is missing the fact that the red IR area is west of the center meaning that the main inhibiting shear is in the steering level of the tropical flow or synoptic feature that is guiding it and coming from the east. Perhaps the difference here is what is pushing the system. Perhaps certain strong ridges offer better conditions to develop at high forward speed but the tropical flow presently pushing 94L doesn't? 94L is presently shaken up by passing the islands while under NNW shear and also losing some of its oceanic southern inflow by being too close to SA. But it still has the red IR burst. This one isn't as robust as last year's Caribbean low-trackers. I would think that the low shear conditions of two days ago, when 94L stayed weak, would suggest that shear wasn't the only inhibiter.

[Derek Ortt]

if the convection is ahead of the center, that means the disturbance needs to speed up to form

case in point is Erika, 2003

[Stratosphere747]

Any idea why the T-numbers haven't updated for 94l?

[Innotech]

probably because the storm hasnt updated itself either.

[Derek Ortt]

neither this, nor the SW caribbean really have much of a chance

time for me to get some sleep now. Hopefully all remains quiet in the morning

[txag2005]

My wife and I are supposed to leave Friday for a week long vacation in the Cancun/Playa Del Carmen/Cozumel area in Mexico. We are scheduled to be in Mexico from this Friday, July 18 until Thursday July 24.

I just heard about this storm on the news a bit ago and it looks like the models on Weather Underground show tracks putting it dangerously close to the Yucatan. I dont really understand weather or the risk of this storm actually forming into a major TS/hurricane. Should I be concerned? If this thing forms, when is expected landfall? My wife and I are trying to decide if this storm is enough for us to cancel our trip (we leave Friday and come by next Thursday), or if we should just go ahead and go.

Any thoughts or advice??

Thanks!

[RL3AO]

My wife and I are supposed to leave Friday for a week long vacation in the Cancun/Playa Del Carmen/Cozumel area in Mexico. We are scheduled to be in Mexico from this Friday, July 18 until Thursday July 24.

I just heard about this storm on the news a bit ago and it looks like the models on Weather Underground show tracks putting it dangerously close to the Yucatan. I dont really understand weather or the risk of this storm actually forming into a major TS/hurricane. Should I be concerned? If this thing forms, when is expected landfall? My wife and I are trying to decide if this storm is enough for us to cancel our trip (we leave Friday and come by next Thursday), or if we should just go ahead and go.

Any thoughts or advice??

Thanks!

If it does affect the Yucatan, it should be no more than a tropical wave with some rain showers and maybe a few 25 mph gusts if there is any convection with it. It could just be a wave with no rain by the time it gets there. You should be fine. But never say never and you should check the NHC site if you can once a day or so. Have fun on your trip.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[txag2005]

My wife and I are supposed to leave Friday for a week long vacation in the Cancun/Playa Del Carmen/Cozumel area in Mexico. We are scheduled to be in Mexico from this Friday, July 18 until Thursday July 24.

I just heard about this storm on the news a bit ago and it looks like the models on Weather Underground show tracks putting it dangerously close to the Yucatan. I dont really understand weather or the risk of this storm actually forming into a major TS/hurricane. Should I be concerned? If this thing forms, when is expected landfall? My wife and I are trying to decide if this storm is enough for us to cancel our trip (we leave Friday and come by next Thursday), or if we should just go ahead and go.

Any thoughts or advice??

Thanks!

If it does affect the Yucatan, it should be no more than a tropical wave with some rain showers and maybe a few 25 mph gusts if there is any convection with it. It could just be a wave with no rain by the time it gets there. You should be fine. But never say never and you should check the NHC site if you can once a day or so. Have fun on your trip.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

So there isn't a large chance that this will form into a Hurricane at some poitn?

[RL3AO]

So there isn't a large chance that this will form into a Hurricane at some poitn?

Its a pretty small chance this will ever become a tropical depression.

[bob rulz]

So there isn't a large chance that this will form into a Hurricane at some poitn?

Its a pretty small chance this will ever become a tropical depression.

But if it does become a tropical depression I'd say there's a good chance it'll become a hurricane.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
Nearly fizzing out. Could be different by morning, but it looks terrible right now. Good night.

[txag2005]

I hope that is the case, especially as I'm scared out of mind of the chance of getting caught in a storm while down in Mexico.

[KWT]

Yeah I think this system is finished now all the convection is decaying bar from a little burst way to the south and its looking messy now, if I was recon I wouldn't bother with it.

[Thunder44]

Yeah, it looks worse than yesterday evening. It looks like it's still under some shear and dealing with dry air.

[tailgater]

My wife and I are supposed to leave Friday for a week long vacation in the Cancun/Playa Del Carmen/Cozumel area in Mexico. We are scheduled to be in Mexico from this Friday, July 18 until Thursday July 24.

I just heard about this storm on the news a bit ago and it looks like the models on Weather Underground show tracks putting it dangerously close to the Yucatan. I dont really understand weather or the risk of this storm actually forming into a major TS/hurricane. Should I be concerned? If this thing forms, when is expected landfall? My wife and I are trying to decide if this storm is enough for us to cancel our trip (we leave Friday and come by next Thursday), or if we should just go ahead and go.

Any thoughts or advice??

Thanks!

If it does affect the Yucatan, it should be no more than a tropical wave with some rain showers and maybe a few 25 mph gusts if there is any convection with it. It could just be a wave with no rain by the time it gets there. You should be fine. But never say never and you should check the NHC site if you can once a day or so. Have fun on your trip.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

So there isn't a large chance that this will form into a Hurricane at some poitn?

I would watch this system very closely between now and the time my flight left. It doesn't look good on Sat. loops this morning but if conditions improve as I personally think they will once it clears @ the 72nd parallel, the structure of the invest at lower levels has improved. Definitely Bears watching if you're headed to Cancun.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF

[Colorado]

Do you think this storm would affect Cancun area vacationers leaving as late as Aug. 2? Or is it what's behind it that those of us leaving that week would have to fear? Thanks in advance. I'm really glad I found this site.

[Derek Ortt]

guys... a little realistic please

this is is almost certainly not doing anything

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT WITH
A 1009 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE WILL
POSSIBLY BE INVESTIGATED LATER TODAY BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. CONDITIONS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS...
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 62W-67W WITH SCATTERED/LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NERN VENEZUELA.

[Thunder44]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT WITH
A 1009 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE WILL
POSSIBLY BE INVESTIGATED LATER TODAY BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. CONDITIONS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS...
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 62W-67W WITH SCATTERED/LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NERN VENEZUELA.

From what I see on water vaper imagery, there is only a little area where it appears "conducive" for develop in the Eastern Carribean. There is more shear, from a trough, coming in from the north and east and there is more shear coming in from the NW from the system in SW Carribean. Right now it seems to be in between those areas, and it looks a little better than it did a couple hours ago. Although there is still some dry air to deal with even there.

I think NHC is afraid it may take oppurtunity develop in the small windows that open up. I think it's justified, but the overall probabilites of any significant development is low, IMO.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Western Caribbean one looks a lot better, but it is running out of time.


94L looks pathetic. When Wxman57 brings in Dr. McCoy, it is usually for a reason...