ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Trader Ron]

The EURO does not slam south florida in that run...but it gets close and then goes on destroy whats left of Louisiana after Gustav.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082812!!/

Well it goes right over The Keys. Not a good scenario.

[tgenius]

The EURO does not slam south florida in that run...but it gets close and then goes on destroy whats left of Louisiana after Gustav.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082812!!/

Well it goes right over The Keys. Not a good scenario.

That scenario is enough to have Dade County under a Hurricane Warning which would cause havok in the news and city.

[gatorcane]

not to mention it only makes sense to look at trends and not actual landfall locations (counties) this far out (8 days).....

[Bocadude85]

Yea we need to be looking at sypnotics not where the storm makes landfall 8 days from now because we all know it will change over and over again

[Nimbus]

Storm developing off the east coast of Florida that just misses a trough then drifts west or WSW under strong ridging. Track sort of like Betsy or Andrew. Well just because the models haven't dug a trough down to pick it up in five runs doesn't mean they won't right?

Any other Floridians starting to feel like they might be suffering from denial?

[Trader Ron]

and over and over and over.

32 model runs to go and 16 for others.

[Vortex]

I dont think the forecast is as complicated as it appears...Once Hanna gets to around 24-27N/70W the shortwave will bypass her and significant ridging to the north will turn her w or even sw for a period. At the same time is went I expect her much anticipated strengthening to begin. More then likely sometime late this weekend. I'd advise anyone along the SE coast and especially florida/keys to begin to monitor this situation.

[SouthFLTropics]

OMG...the most recent Euro run would have to make everyone in NOLA crap their pants...A 1-2 punch in a period of 4 days...At least everyone would be evacuated already from Gustav...

SFT

[Trader Ron]

Vortex we chopped liver over here on the W.C.



AKA..it looks like the models have a decent handle on Hanna, a/o today.

[BOPPA]

Vortex we chopped liver over here on the W.C.



AKA..it looks like the models have a decent handle on Hanna, a/o today.

Right -we get scared on the WC too - and plent worried - being "sandwiched"
between these things does not give me a warm & fuzzy feeling

[gatorcane]

NOGAPS (144 hours)



CMC (144 hours)


GFDL (126 hours)

[Steve H.]

Yah Trader Ron has the right idea. There are many model runs/solutions the models are grappling with, but there are many more to go til day 6/7, and the solutions will eventually smooth the dips and swings of the features over the next week. But begin to be concerned when the answer starts to lie between the ECM solution of yesterday and today (assuming Hanna survives, which I believe she will). The trouble right now for forecasters is seeing where the dlm ridge sets up - either on the east coast or become more progressive and into the westward Atlantic. There is just no way to know right now, and if anyone tries to make a solid forecast right now, will get lucky or just eat crow. Many days ahead for refinement.

[Nimbus]

Short term the ULL that is just west of Hanna has not moved yet and may shear Hanna back to a TD.
I still think there is time for a second or third short wave to pull Hanna north.

[gatorcane]

Short term the ULL that is just west of Hanna has not moved yet and may shear Hanna back to a TD.
I still think there is time for a second or third short wave to pull Hanna north.

I see only one possible shortwave that can do it and all of the models agree it will miss it.

What other shortwaves are you referring to?

[Weatherboy1]

model trends are hugely divergent 5 or 6 days out. CMC and NOGAPS want to drive this thing almost due south or even SSE under the building ridge. GFDL wants to just stall it. And on and on. I just hope Storm2k has enough bandwidth to handle all of us tropics junkies given all the systems out there right now and all the uncertainty about where they're headed!

[Blown Away]

Those models remind me of Jeanne a few years ago. Funny cause the GFS wanted to kick Jeanne out to sea.

[DanKellFla]

Yah Trader Ron has the right idea. There are many model runs/solutions the models are grappling with, but there are many more to go til day 6/7, and the solutions will eventually smooth the dips and swings of the features over the next week. But begin to be concerned when the answer starts to lie between the ECM solution of yesterday and today (assuming Hanna survives, which I believe she will). The trouble right now for forecasters is seeing where the dlm ridge sets up - either on the east coast or become more progressive and into the westward Atlantic. There is just no way to know right now, and if anyone tries to make a solid forecast right now, will get lucky or just eat crow. Many days ahead for refinement.

I asked my magic 8 ball about the storm.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z about to roll..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[fci]

I see ALL models taking Hanna eventually to the SOUTH.

Which tells me that they think she will make a loop at the end.
Question is whether it is a full loop that eventually takes her W or SW or a half loop that ejects her to the NE.

And what about the "back door cold front" I saw on the Miami Forecast Discussion yesterday?
Would this drag Hanna out along the front to the NE and keep her away from Florida??

[gatorcane]

I see ALL models taking Hanna eventually to the SOUTH.

Which tells me that they think she will make a loop at the end.
Question is whether it is a full loop that eventually takes her W or SW or a half loop that ejects her to the NE.

And what about the "back door cold front" I saw on the Miami Forecast Discussion yesterday?
Would this drag Hanna out along the front to the NE and keep her away from Florida??

FCI a more SW or South bend I can see but the backdoor front would have a precisely opposite impact than what you describe so long as Hanna does not move too quickly northwestward.

Namely, Hanna does not get ejected NE by the time the front comes through as all global models are showing, meanders and then a big High builds in down the Eastern CONUS behind this front and Western Atlantic that would shove her SW, W or maybe South.