ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[cycloneye]

The first plots from GFDL:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L



INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 18



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 12.6 34.2 270./ 8.0

6 13.0 34.8 305./ 7.5

12 13.0 35.6 268./ 7.6

18 13.4 36.4 299./ 8.7

24 13.8 37.6 285./12.3

30 14.1 38.9 284./12.7

36 14.1 40.3 269./14.0

42 14.3 41.8 280./14.6

48 14.5 43.7 275./18.8

54 14.6 45.5 274./17.5

60 14.7 47.3 272./16.8

66 15.1 49.0 283./17.2

72 15.5 50.6 285./15.8

78 16.1 52.6 286./20.0

84 16.2 54.3 276./16.2

90 16.8 55.6 293./14.0

96 17.2 57.1 285./15.2

102 17.6 58.9 283./16.9

108 18.1 60.3 289./14.3

114 18.7 61.6 293./14.0

120 19.3 63.4 289./18.0

126 19.9 64.9 291./14.7

[cycloneye]

Firsrt run for 94L from HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[marcus B]

Here is the 12z GFS loop.Look at where it ends up making landfall,in Corpus Christi yes I typed that right,in Corpus Christi.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif

Right on Labor Day

[cycloneye]

The first animation loop from GFDL for 94L

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[DESTRUCTION5]

The first animation loop from GFDL for 94L

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

GFDL Brings FAY BACK TO SFL!!! ?

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS seems to imply Fay hangs around long enough to possibly influence track of 94L.

Or at least influence the small upper low it predicts to be between itself and 94L. Which would influence 94L, indirectly.


Interesting stuff.


Looking at visible satellite loop, I'm not a trained expert, but I think that is darned close to being Gustav already...

[SouthFLTropics]

That's just nuts...I had to look at it multiple times to make sure that the loop wasn't running backwards. What the Heck..

SFT

[Meso]

hahaha what the!?

Me too, I kept checking if I was going forward or backwards. It puts Fay in rewind mode ;O

[Praxus]

Lol WTF, had to show that one to people at work.

Well at least this hurricane season isn't boring like the last two!

[KWT]

Some of those models are pretty interesting, they really weaken 94L around 72-120hrs, I guess the model progs shear to be high enough to disrupt it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The first animation loop from GFDL for 94L

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

GFDL Brings FAY BACK TO SFL!!! ?

12Z Canadian and GFS both show sharp left hand turn... Will Fay affect 94L?

[x-y-no]

The first animation loop from GFDL for 94L

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

GFDL Brings FAY BACK TO SFL!!! ?

Pretty funny, yes.

But note that this run is focused on 94L, so this doesn't mean much.

[StJoe]

Lol WTF, had to show that one to people at work.

Well at least this hurricane season isn't boring like the last two!

You know, not for nothing...but Fay is really starting to remind me of my ex; really wet and disorganized!!! Then she wants to come back for more???

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC Guidance from the BAMS.

602
WHXX01 KWBC 181808
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1808 UTC MON AUG 18 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080818 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080818 1800 080819 0600 080819 1800 080820 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 35.2W 13.4N 37.0W 14.1N 39.4W 14.7N 42.5W
BAMD 12.9N 35.2W 13.3N 36.7W 14.0N 38.3W 14.9N 40.2W
BAMM 12.9N 35.2W 13.4N 36.8W 14.1N 38.8W 14.9N 41.1W
LBAR 12.9N 35.2W 13.0N 36.8W 13.4N 38.9W 13.6N 41.1W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080820 1800 080821 1800 080822 1800 080823 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 46.2W 18.7N 54.3W 22.0N 62.0W 25.7N 68.0W
BAMD 16.0N 42.4W 18.8N 47.8W 21.6N 53.3W 23.3N 58.2W
BAMM 15.9N 43.9W 18.4N 50.2W 20.8N 56.5W 23.5N 62.2W
LBAR 13.9N 43.8W 14.8N 49.6W 17.1N 56.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 54KTS 55KTS 58KTS
DSHP 50KTS 54KTS 55KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 35.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 33.6W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 31.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[z-bail]

x-y-no,
i have a question regarding that. when you say this is focused on 94L, what does that mean? isn't a model a model?
i thought i have seen that in the past also. i look at one storm, say fay and it has a certain track. then i look at the track for invest 94L and I see what Fay does in the 94L track and it is different.

I don't understand this! How can there be more than one model TOTAL?

I can understand if they want to zoom in on 94L when you click on that link but how would that change the model of what FAY is going to do?

[cycloneye]

94L will have to deal with some episodes of shear during its journey:

Code: Select all

  *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  08/18/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    36    40    46    50    53    54    53    55    57    58
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    36    40    46    50    53    54    53    55    57    58
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    30    33    36    37    37    38    38    41    44

SHEAR (KTS)       11     8     9     8    15    23    16    25    20    20    14    17    13
SHEAR DIR        116   131   156   176   184   227   225   230   234   238   254   256   269
SST (C)         28.1  28.0  27.9  27.9  27.7  27.1  26.9  27.3  27.3  27.7  28.3  28.4  28.7
POT. INT. (KT)   137   136   135   135   133   126   125   130   130   135   143   144   148
ADJ. POT. INT.   133   131   131   132   130   123   122   128   127   130   138   137   138
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     8     9     9     9     9     9     9     9     9
700-500 MB RH     62    63    62    61    58    58    54    53    49    49    51    53    58
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     8     8     8     9    10     8     9     9     8     8     6     5
850 MB ENV VOR    76    78    78    75    88    91    64    45    31     1     3   -16   -11
200 MB DIV        92    72    57    39    38    17    22    21    15    -9     2    36    31
LAND (KM)       1834  1837  1845  1823  1761  1643  1537  1465  1435  1288  1002   757   681
LAT (DEG N)     12.9  13.2  13.4  13.8  14.1  14.9  15.9  17.0  18.4  19.7  20.8  22.0  23.5
LONG(DEG W)     35.2  36.0  36.8  37.8  38.8  41.1  43.9  46.9  50.2  53.3  56.5  59.6  62.2
STM SPEED (KT)     8     8     9    10    11    13    15    16    17    16    16    15    14
HEAT CONTENT      15    14    15    16    17    15    18    27    32    34    50    45    57

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  528  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  18.0 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  76.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   4.   9.  15.  20.  24.  27.  30.  32.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   4.   3.   2.  -2.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -7.  -7.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   6.   9.  13.  19.  24.  28.  30.  31.  33.  34.  36.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   7.  11.  15.  21.  25.  28.  29.  28.  30.  32.  33.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008     INVEST 08/18/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  10.3 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  59.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 106.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.8 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  12.8 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  15.4 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    35% is   2.8 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    20% is   2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008     INVEST 08/18/08  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##    NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED   


[KWT]

Then again the SHIPS forecast of shear has been frankly nothing short of useless at times this season so not sure whether we should really put too much weight on it.

[x-y-no]

x-y-no,
i have a question regarding that. when you say this is focused on 94L, what does that mean? isn't a model a model?
i thought i have seen that in the past also. i look at one storm, say fay and it has a certain track. then i look at the track for invest 94L and I see what Fay does in the 94L track and it is different.

I don't understand this! How can there be more than one model TOTAL?

I can understand if they want to zoom in on 94L when you click on that link but how would that change the model of what FAY is going to do?

The GFDL is a nested grid model run on the GFS background. Because of that, it is mainly meaningful in the region where that nested grid is located (focused on the storm in question).

Here is the 12Z GFDL focused on Fay:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Note that it does not do anything like what the 94L focused run did.

[mattpetre]

Thats a system behind 94L cycloneye, 94L stays weak and in the end goes through a slight weakness around 65-70W.

KWT, can you provide a link that verifies this. I thought the same thing as cycloneeye about that prediction to Central TX being 94L. Not that I don't believe you, I'd just like to see it. The only animated GFS I have just shows the CONUS, so I don't know what it is that's coming into view as Fay goes away.

[KWT]

Yeah sure, here is 6hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

you can see it further west with 1009.

Now heres 36hrs out, now at 1011:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

60hrs has it at 1010, note whats developing behind it now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

78hrs and 94l opens into a wave:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

120hrs and you can see the system further east now in central Atlantic, 94L just about gone:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

168hrs and wave behind 94l still going between 20/60:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

Should be able to track it from there towards Florida.