CPAC: Tropical Depression Kika

Chacor · #22 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 8:26 am

Not looking that healthy right now.

Chacor · #23 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 8:54 am

441
ACPN50 PHFO 061351
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED AUG 6 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
10N 145W...OR ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO. THIS FEATURE MOVED
TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 10 MPH. CYCLING BUT INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

$$

RYSHKO

Chacor · #24 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 9:14 am

TXPN40 PHFO 061220
TCSCP

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1200 UTC WED AUG 06 2008

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92C

B. 06/1130Z

C. 10.1N

D. 145.2W

E. GOES11

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/06 HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN WITH CENTER LESS THAN 45 NM FROM DEEP
CONVECTION YIELDS MINIMUM DT OF 2.5. PATTERN T IS 2.0. FINAL T IS
HELD DOWN BY CONSTRAINTS AT 1.5.

$$

RYSHKO

SAB: 06/1200 UTC 10.1N 144.5W T1.5/1.5 92C -- Central Pacific Ocean

#25 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 10:49 am

06/1200 UTC 10.1N 144.5W T1.5/1.5 92C -- Central Pacific Ocean

Chacor · #26 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 10:52 am

It's at the end of my previous post.

#27 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 11:01 am

Chacor wrote::uarrow: It's at the end of my previous post.

Sorry, didn't see it. 8-)

#28 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 1:44 pm

06/1800 UTC 10.1N 145.2W T2.5/2.5 92C -- Central Pacific Ocean

Impressive!

#29 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 1:47 pm

#30 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:30 pm

985
WHXX01 KMIA 061914
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1914 UTC WED AUG 6 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP922008) 20080806 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080806 1800 080807 0600 080807 1800 080808 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.1N 145.7W 10.5N 147.7W 10.7N 149.6W 11.0N 151.4W
BAMD 10.1N 145.7W 10.6N 147.9W 11.0N 150.2W 11.4N 152.7W
BAMM 10.1N 145.7W 10.5N 147.7W 10.7N 149.8W 11.0N 152.1W
LBAR 10.1N 145.7W 10.6N 148.3W 11.1N 151.3W 11.8N 154.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080808 1800 080809 1800 080810 1800 080811 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 153.2W 12.0N 156.9W 13.4N 160.6W 14.6N 164.6W
BAMD 11.8N 155.3W 12.5N 160.5W 13.7N 164.9W 15.6N 168.3W
BAMM 11.3N 154.4W 11.8N 159.4W 12.7N 163.9W 14.0N 168.5W
LBAR 12.5N 157.1W 13.4N 162.3W 13.8N 166.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 41KTS 45KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 41KTS 45KTS 51KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.1N LONCUR = 145.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 143.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 141.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

#31 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:32 pm

In the CPAC seeing a system like this is quite impressive.

#32 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:38 pm

Wind shear looks favorable until 160ºW if it remains around 10ºN.

#33 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:40 pm

Low Levels:

Upper Levels:

It should go westward.

#34 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 4:08 pm

More convection develops.

KWT · #35 Postby **KWT** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 4:56 pm

This one surely has to be upgraded to at least a TD if not a TS straight away, it looks impressive enough IMO.

#36 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 4:57 pm

Interesting little system! Quite well developed.

#37 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 6:28 pm

T2.5 supports Tropical Storm Kika if it is organized enough.

Chacor · #38 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:24 pm

T2.5 is only ONE reading. It's inaccurate to base this on ONE reading alone. The CPHC's own Dvorak fix on it came up with T2.0.

#39 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:24 pm

If RECON were to visit 92C, it will likely find a depression or weak storm.

Chacor · #40 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:25 pm

The SAB's Dvorak fixes are not the be-all-and-end-all, there are other fixes out there.

TXPN40 PHFO 070011 CCA
TCSCP

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0015 UTC THU AUG 07 2008

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92C

B. 06/2330Z

C. 10.2N

D. 146.3W

E. GOES11

F. T2.0/2.0/D 06 HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. SYSTEM HAS A .30 DEG WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING A DT OF 2.0.
MET AND PT AGREE.

$$
CRAIG

CPAC: Tropical Depression Kika

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