EPAC: Tropical Storm Hernan

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Large circulation.

[HURAKAN]

05/1745 UTC 11.7N 106.7W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

EP, 92, 2008080600, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1073W, 25, 1006,



More impressive area of convection.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 06 2008

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 12N109W IS EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
W AT 10 KT. SYSTEM ABLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION GOING EVEN
AGAINST ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE ELY WIND SHEAR.
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND DECREASED
SHEAR. SYSTEM UNDER MONITORING AS SIGNS OF CYCLONIC TURNING ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS. BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN NW
QUADRANT WITHIN LAST 4 HR MIGHT BE PRECURSOR OF INTENSIFICATION.

[HURAKAN]

174
ABPZ20 KNHC 061145
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 6 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

This one was quick after its comeback!! Hello Hernán.

[RL3AO]

Looks good. Someone must have told it the Atlantic was trying to catch up.

[Cyclone1]

Rl3AO: Haha

It does look impressive this morning. Impressive enough to have me posting on a non-Atlantic storm.

[HURAKAN]

Easterly shear is likely affecting the system.

[Chacor]

TCFA:

WTPN21 PHNC 061430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 109.1W TO 14.0N 114.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 109.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.9N 109.6W, APPROXIMATELY
410 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 060907Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE
IMAGE. CONVECTION IS PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED ALONG A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAND ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE DIS-
TURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE AND
DECREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 071430Z.//

[Derek Ortt]

may be something to watch for hawaii down the road

[HURAKAN]

06/1200 UTC 12.0N 110.1W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

348
ABPZ20 KNHC 061745
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 6 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

NRL indicated depression at 5.

[HURAKAN]

06/1800 UTC 12.6N 111.2W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

Done deal:

BEGIN
NHC
invest_RENUMBER_ep922008_ep092008.ren

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[cycloneye]

And the ATCF best track has it as TD:

EP, 92, 2008080618, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1110W, 25, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/