Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

Last I saw there was a fair bit of dry air from the SAL.

[cycloneye]

Can anyone post the link to the ASOS for Sal, Cape Verde islands? I'm perusing available surface observations from the islands.

Conditions at Jul 29, 2008 - 10:00 PM EDTJul 29, 2008 - 09:00 PM CDTJul 29, 2008 - 08:00 PM MDTJul 29, 2008 - 07:00 PM PDTJul 29, 2008 - 06:00 PM ADTJul 29, 2008 - 05:00 PM HDT
2008.07.30 0200 UTC
Wind from the NE (050 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 69 F (21 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob GVAC 300200Z 05007KT 9999 FEW014 SCT016 24/21 Q1011 NOSIG

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GVAC.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Last I saw there was a fair bit of dry air from the SAL.

Sal is a city located within the country Cape Verde (islands).

Praia is the capital.

Edit: Sal is one of the islands, as I privately suspected... sorry!

[cycloneye]

The SAL looks like its not a big impediment for 98L to organize as its west of it and moving in tandem.

[RL3AO]

I think the winds would be more from the north if it was closed.

[kurtpage]

Latest Water Vapor Image

[Aric Dunn]

that is a very large burst of convection ... right over the center.. !! as the center has moved back over water since this morning.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

[cycloneye]

30/0000 UTC 13.4N 17.6W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[lonelymike]

Here's the stupid question of the day: Have the Cape Verde islands ever been hit by a tropical storm or hurricane. Being pretty close to the cradle of canes I would doubt it but hey does anyone know?

[RL3AO]

Here's the stupid question of the day: Have the Cape Verde islands ever been hit by a tropical storm or hurricane. Being pretty close to the cradle of canes I would doubt it but hey does anyone know?

Tropical storm? Yes. Hurricane? Not sure.

[Vortex]

Most all the guidance I'm looking at from the medium range globals suggest this system will move w/wsw the next 2 days then west towards and possibly over the leewards in about 6-7 days. Although they maintain a weak system at this point there is no indication so far that 98l is headed out to sea anytime soon.

[Aric Dunn]

center roughtly around the where the circle is. I used a extrap from the long Ir loop i posted earlier and present structure of the system.
a westerly motion should take shape at least in the short term. the north motion that was occuring ealier was likely in response to a second weaker low that emerged of the coast farther north earlier this morning causing some interaction.
that motion appears to have ended with a west to slightly north of west motion for the last few hours..

and a depression is not out of the question sometime tomorrow after visible comes and and observations from the cape verde islands.

[Aric Dunn]

30/0000 UTC 13.4N 17.6W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

hmm those coordinates seem a little to far east .. but the 13.4 is about right. .

[RL3AO]

Interesting note. Unless this Wikipedia article is missing something, there has never been a TC that impacted Cape Verde in July. (I guess you could argue Bertha was the first)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_West_Africa_hurricanes

[cycloneye]

Pic at 10 PM EDT: No models yet?

[JonathanBelles]

Very nice looking system...something to watch in the next few days as long as it doesnt go poof.

[Aric Dunn]

Pic at 10 PM EDT:

that is the fastet i have seem something "look" like its organizing...

I see a major major imporvement but i want to wait another few hours to see what happens with it before im sure of the LLC placement.

[wxman57]

Chances of an east Caribbean hit from such a high latitude starting point would seem low, particularly given the weakness of the Bermuda High so far this season. Heck, it only has to gain 4-5 degrees latitude over the next week to miss the Caribbean and likely turn off to the north and out to sea. I'm not too concerned about a Caribbean or U.S. threat from this system.

[Aric Dunn]

Chances of an east Caribbean hit from such a high latitude starting point would seem low, particularly given the weakness of the Bermuda High so far this season. Heck, it only has to gain 4-5 degrees latitude over the next week to miss the Caribbean and likely turn off to the north and out to sea. I'm not too concerned about a Caribbean or U.S. threat from this system.

only one problem. the present set up at least over the next couple days would suggest a w to wsw motion.
either for a weak or moderate strength system.

[RL3AO]

IR image with surface obs. From wunderground.