WPAC: TD (ex-Typhoon Fung-wong) inland in China

[Chacor]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the Japan Met Agency or your local weather bureau.

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BULLETIN NR 1
1515 UTC THU JULY 24 2008
OPERATIONAL TIME 1200 UTC
CORRECTED TO ADD MOVEMENT

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA...NO IMMEDIATE
THREAT TO LAND...

AT 9 PM JST...1200 UTC...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS IN
THE GENERAL REGION OF 21-22 N...132 E. HAVE OPTED TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE JMA AND JTWC 12Z CENTRES...SO THE CENTRE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.3 EAST. THIS
IS APPROXIMATELY 685 KM...425 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA JAPAN...AND
ABOUT 1160 KM...720 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI TAIWAN.

THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 30 KT...
55 KM/H...OR 35 MPH. JTWC'S 25 KT READING APPEARS ON THE LOW END GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION...AS WELL AS DVORAK READINGS
CORRESPONDING TO 30 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND JMA. A 1357 SAT IR IMAGE
SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE CURVING STRUCTURE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...AND
SO EVEN 30 KT MAY BE ON THE LOW END AND THIS COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM
ANY TIME NOW.

THE JMA...USUALLY CONSERVATIVE...ARE CALLING FOR SOME FAIRLY QUICK
INTENSIFICATION...SHOWING THE DEPRESSION AS A 45-KNOT STORM IN 24 HOURS
- OR ABOUT 50 KT ONE-MINUTE WINDS. THE JTWC...ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE
SHOWING A 35-KNOT TROPICAL STORM AT THE SAME FORECAST POINT.

THE JTWC APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH THE STORM...AND
WITH NO APPARENT BARRIERS TO INTENSIFICATION...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
JMA SOLUTION...WHILE POSSIBLY A BIT HIGH...IS MORE LIKELY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE JMA AT 1200Z WAS 998 HPA.

THE DEPRESSION IS HARDLY MOVING RIGHT NOW...WITH THE JTWC ESTIMATING A
GENERAL MOVEMENT NEAR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 2 KT IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE
JMA IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW WESTWARD COMPONENT. BOTH ANALYSES
AGREE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD PICK UP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. BOTH ANALYSES ALSO AGREE ON THE GENERAL POSITION OF THE
STORM-TO-BE IN 24 HOURS...WITH A DIFFERENCE IN LATITUDE OF ABOUT 0.6
DEGREES. THE MOTION OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE ANY FUTURE LAND THREAT...
AS THE JTWC'S CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE STORM TAKING A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
TURN THAT SCRAPES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN.

REPEATING THE 1200Z POSITION...21.7 N 132.3 E...OR ABOUT 685 KM SOUTHEAST
OF OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
PASS THE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD SOON. MOVEMENT...ALMOST STATIONARY OR
SLOWLY WEST.

NEXT BULLETIN BY 0000Z.

[Chacor]

This, on the other hand, is an official NWS (WFO Guam) advisory:

WTPQ31 PGUM 241521
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST THU JUL 25 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W HAS DEVELOPED WELL EAST OF TAIWAN...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 1 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.3 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 995 MILES NORTH OF KOROR
920 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
1005 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 21.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 132.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST.

$$

LEE

[Chacor]

The next name on the list is Fung-wong, meaning phoenix. It's also the local name of the second-highest peak in Hong Kong.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 21.9N 131.9E POOR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 22.5N 129.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[RattleMan]

WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 21.9N 131.6E POOR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 22.5N 129.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

-80C tops means it must be at TS stregth now.

[jasons2k]

I wonder why they are not forecasting this to be a typhoon. It looks pretty good thus far.

[HURAKAN]

24/2030 UTC 21.9N 132.6E T2.5/2.5 09W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

2.5 from RJTD at 00z means we should have Fung-wong any time now.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 21.5N 131.4E POOR
MOVE SSW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 21.9N 128.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

JMA doing the same thing as they did with Kalmaegi, that is, refusing to upgrade despite a 2.5.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 242157.GIF

Looks decoupled with its LLC exposed and the MLC visible in the rotation of the convection of the system.

[RL3AO]

JTWC upgrades, 65kt in 72 hr.


1. TROPICAL STORM 09W WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 21.6N 131.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 131.7E

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 21.5N 131.2E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 22.2N 127.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[Chacor]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the Japan Met Agency or your local weather bureau.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM (09W) BULLETIN NR 2
0415 UTC FRI JULY 25 2008
OPERATIONAL TIME 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW A TROPICAL STORM...TAIWAN IN RANGE...

AT 9 AM JST...0000 UTC...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM (09W) WAS LOCATED
AROUND LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.5E. A 2330Z SAT VIS IMAGE
SHOWED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. THIS IS ABOUT
650 KM...405 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA JAPAN...AND ABOUT 1080 KM...
670 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI TAIWAN.

THE ESTIMATED POSITION OF THE STORM AT 12 PM JST...0300 UTC...NEAR
LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 131.2 EAST.

THIS IS AN ESTIMATED MOVEMENT OF AROUND DUE WEST AT 4 KT OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. BOTH JTWC AND JMA ANALYSES AGREE ON A WEST...OR JUST SOUTH OF
WEST...MOVEMENT AT AROUND THE SAME FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BOTH ANALYSES...HOWEVER...DIFFER ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE STORM
IN 24 HOURS...WITH THE JMA FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE JTWC'S ANALYSIS...
BRINGING THE STORM CLOSER TO TAIWAN. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...EASTERN
TAIWAN SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS FOR A TROPICAL STORM OR TYPHOON.

THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 35 KT...
65 KM/H OR 40 MPH. THE JMA INSISTS ON A 30-KNOT ANALYSIS...WHICH MAY
BE FAIR GIVEN THE APPARENT EXPOSURE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTRE...DISPLACED
FROM DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS ARE WELL COLDER THAN -80C...
AND GIVEN TROPICAL STORM-EQUIVALENT DVORAK NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KT. THE NEXT NAME ON THE LIST...AS AND WHEN THE JMA
NAMES THIS STORM...IS FUNG-WONG.

THE JMA CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A 45-KNOT STORM IN 24 HOURS. GIVEN ITS
INSISTENCE ON THIS SCENARIO...EVEN FROM 12 HOURS AGO...DESPITE THE STORM
NOT DEVELOPING THAT QUICKLY...COUPLED WITH A JTWC FORECAST OF 40 KNOTS AT
THE SAME FORECAST POINT...A 40-KNOT...10 MINUTE WINDS...STORM SEEMS FAIR
AT THAT POINT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE JMA AT 0300Z WAS 996 HPA.

REPEATING THE 0000Z POSITION...21.5 N 131.5 E...OR ABOUT 650 KM SOUTHEAST
OF OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MOVEMENT...WEST AROUND
4 KT.

NEXT BULLETIN BY 1200Z.

[P.K.]

T2.5 from RSMC Tokyo so expect this to be upgraded to a TS shortly.

[RL3AO]

T2.5 from RSMC Tokyo so expect this to be upgraded to a TS shortly.

I think they've had that for 12 hours now.

[P.K.]

It was a T2.0 last I checked last night. I didn't see the previous 6 hour fix however they usually name as soon as it reaches T2.5.

[RL3AO]

Look at Chacors post above from 0046z.

[P.K.]

Upgraded as expected.

WTPQ20 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0808 FUNG-WONG (0808) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 21.9N 130.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 22.4N 128.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 270600UTC 22.4N 124.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 280600UTC 24.0N 122.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =