TC Bertha

[Jason_B]

Has a nice outflow to it. Next 24hrs will be interesting.

[NDG]

If a low pressure center is trying to organize near 10.5 N, it is in plenty of warm waters, low shear environment with very little if any SAL, it will have to move WNW as the most to stay in warmer waters south of the CV islands, if it gain any more latitude like most models past 3 days it will start encountering cooler waters and more stable environment, but it should be at least a named system by then.
Let not call this a fish storm, because if weakens past 40W it will be steered more W by the lower atmospheric steerings, so way to early to go even there.

[HURAKAN]

1996:
Bertha originated from a tropical wave which moved from Africa to the Atlantic on 1 July.

[Recurve]

Current shear

[cycloneye]

[NDG]

Lets look at this area map instead for windshear:

[Chacor]

In decent conditions. 12Z SHIPS run is due any time now...

[Derek Ortt]

every model has a fairly intense TC out of this.

Have to give props for Falko Judt for calling this last evening

[DESTRUCTION5]

every model has a fairly intense TC out of this.

Have to give props for Falko Judt for calling this last evening

Fairly intense Cyclone in early July coming off Africa can only mean one thing.....I think we all know what that is...

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 010900.GIF

Convection developing. System not weakening at the moment.

[Chacor]

This is old — the 06z SHIPS run — but the SHIPS RI index showed a massive RI potential.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

[cycloneye]

This is old — the 06z SHIPS run — but the SHIPS RI index showed a massive RI potential.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

That is posted at the models thread.All model runs are being posted at the 92L models thread to not have this main 92L thread congested.

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.htm
Low shear in vicinity of Invest 92 L, and farther west, winds seems to decrease a bit given the map, maybe a window of opportunity for this beauty. This awesome wave looks like a an august wave typical of CV storm ( what an appearence!!), amazing . Well, very interresting trip ahead, something to watch within the next 24 hours....

[Chacor]

I don't think posting the RI probabilities "congests" this thread, seeing how it's fairly relevant as to how the invest is developing pretty quickly...

[boca]

If this wave develops into a well developed storm it would almost 100% chance of being a fish because of how east it developed.

[Chacor]

ATCF is in the process of updating now so 12z information and models should be out in the next few minutes.

EDIT:
AL, 92, 2008070112, , BEST, 0, 108N, 166W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[NDG]

So far everything is going as the concensus model were indicating for the past couple of days, it would be hard to go against them at this time for those who are still reluctant, which I can not imagine at this time.

Convergence & UL divergence are getting little by little closer to the broad cyclonic center:

[hawkeh]

Wow I was expecting to wake up to a ragged looking wave, not this. Nice outflow on it...

[wxman57]

For the record, I measured a movement of 280nm from 12Z yesterday to 12Z today, a forward speed of 11.7 kts. The previous 24 hours it moved 240nm, or 10 kts. That 15-20 kt statement from the NHC is a bit high, but it is typical of the speed most waves travel in the Tropical Atlantic.

Was checking back through climo and from 1851-2007 could find only 1 storm that formed within 500nm of where 92L is in July. That was Ceasar in 1990. Ceasar tracked NW and out to sea. Bertha formed near 10N/34W - much farther west. When I expanded the search to all named storms developing within 100nm of 11N/20W in all months since 1851, I get the tracks in the image below. Only one storm that formed so far north and east in 1973 managed to reach land.

92L is certainly a strong wave with perhaps a weak LLC, but we see many such systems move off the west coast of Africa each season without developing. Odds are the thunderstorms will weaken over the next 24-48 hours and the rotation will slowly dissipate. If it does develop, then there appears to be a weakness in the ridge between 30W-40W that will very likely allow a recurvature to the northwest and out to sea over cooler waters.

All storms forming within 100nm of 11N/20W since 1851:

[Chacor]

Oh, the 999% in the RI index? Appears to be because the Ocean Heat Content input into the model run was/is missing. So it's best not to take that at face value.