Tropical Depression Douglas in EPAC

[HurricaneRobert]

This system has a very large twin over the in west pacific, which just shows that this is a fully boarded train in this ocean.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2353 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W N OF 09N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB
LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 09N100W. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
24 HRS ALTHOUGH THE AREA OVER AND AROUND THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
RATHER DISORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 10N98W TO 12N97W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
LINE 12N93W TO 14N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 101W.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

[cycloneye]

29/2345 UTC 10.8N 97.0W T1.0/1.0 96E -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL

This run of GFDL has three things.First it tracks 96E towards the Mexican coast,second it has what is left of Boris retrograding eastward and it shows something in the BOC.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 300301
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0301 UTC MON JUN 30 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962008) 20080630 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080630 0000 080630 1200 080701 0000 080701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 98.0W 12.7N 100.3W 13.7N 102.7W 14.8N 105.0W
BAMD 11.7N 98.0W 12.7N 100.5W 13.7N 102.9W 14.6N 105.2W
BAMM 11.7N 98.0W 12.8N 100.6W 13.8N 103.1W 14.8N 105.5W
LBAR 11.7N 98.0W 12.7N 100.4W 13.9N 102.7W 15.0N 104.9W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080702 0000 080703 0000 080704 0000 080705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 107.0W 17.9N 110.3W 18.9N 112.7W 20.0N 115.5W
BAMD 15.7N 107.4W 17.7N 110.9W 19.0N 113.9W 20.1N 117.4W
BAMM 15.8N 107.8W 17.5N 111.3W 18.3N 113.8W 19.2N 116.6W
LBAR 16.2N 107.1W 18.6N 110.7W 21.3N 113.5W 24.9N 114.9W
SHIP 66KTS 66KTS 58KTS 54KTS
DSHP 66KTS 66KTS 58KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 98.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 95.9W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 94.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Code: Select all

        *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *
                    *      INVEST  EP962008  06/30/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    34    40    46    57    66    68    66    62    58    57    54
V (KT) LAND       25    29    34    40    46    57    66    68    66    62    58    57    54
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    30    34    39    43    44    42    40    37    35

SHEAR (KTS)        3     3     2     3     1     3     6    11    13    12     9     6    11
SHEAR DIR         39    11   188   301    19   159   134   129   122   122   135   153   168
SST (C)         29.5  29.5  29.5  29.4  29.3  28.5  27.3  26.2  25.4  25.1  24.9  24.6  23.8
POT. INT. (KT)   161   161   161   160   159   151   137   125   116   112   110   108    99
200 MB T (C)   -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     6     8     9     6     6     3     3     2     2     1     1
700-500 MB RH     87    85    85    85    84    83    77    76    71    72    67    69    65
GFS VTEX (KT)      9  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    65    64    61    62    56    64    79    86    88   109    97    99   118
200 MB DIV       116   100   104    98    95    76    61    51    79    56    17    41     9
LAND (KM)        470   439   437   442   449   452   495   588   615   618   646   706   763
LAT (DEG N)     11.7  12.3  12.8  13.3  13.8  14.8  15.8  16.7  17.5  17.9  18.3  18.7  19.2
LONG(DEG W)     98.0  99.3 100.6 101.9 103.1 105.5 107.8 109.8 111.3 112.6 113.8 115.1 116.6
STM SPEED (KT)    12    14    14    13    13    13    11     9     7     6     6     7     7

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  499  (MEAN=582)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  18.8 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  85.0 (MEAN=65.7)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   5.  10.  16.  21.  23.  24.  23.  23.  21.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   4.   5.   8.  10.  11.  11.  10.  10.  10.  10.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -9.
  700-500 MB RH          1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.   8.   8.   7.   7.   6.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   8.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       3.   6.  11.  16.  27.  35.  39.  38.  35.  31.  29.  27.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   4.   4.   6.   6.   5.   4.   3.   2.   3.   3.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      4.   9.  15.  21.  32.  41.  43.  41.  37.  33.  32.  29.

** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008     INVEST 06/30/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   2.4 Range: 18.5 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 102.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 135.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  85.4 Range: 63.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.6
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  11.7 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    89% is   7.1 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    73% is   8.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    42% is   7.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008     INVEST 06/30/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY   

If you look at the shear data,there is almost none for this system.

[KWT]

Hmm SHIPS showing high chance of RI occuring with low shear and warm SST's its not really all that surprising that the SHIPS are as agressive as they are.

got to wait for the Vis. imagery but right now it still looks a broad mess to be honest.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BORIS...CENTERED ABOUT 830 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA CENTERED
ABOUT 1440 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS BROAD AND NOT
WELL-ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hasn't broken free from the ITCZ yet.

[cycloneye]

Sandy,you were right about issuing the TCFA too early.

[Chacor]

Not necessarily. A TCFA only means that TC formation potential within 24 hours is good. It doesn't mean that a TC will form, or anything else. It will probably be reissued later.

[HURAKAN]

It was too early because the organization of the system was not GOOD.

[HURAKAN]

A clue about the time it takes a disturbance to develop in a conducive environment is the size of the system. 96E has always been a big disturbance and large disturbances take a lot more time to develop than small disturbances.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC MON JUN 30 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962008) 20080630 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080630 1800 080701 0600 080701 1800 080702 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 104.4W 13.7N 106.0W 14.5N 106.9W 15.4N 108.0W
BAMD 13.0N 104.4W 13.6N 106.4W 14.2N 108.0W 14.9N 109.4W
BAMM 13.0N 104.4W 13.5N 106.2W 14.1N 107.6W 14.8N 108.8W
LBAR 13.0N 104.4W 13.9N 106.8W 14.8N 109.3W 15.8N 111.5W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080702 1800 080703 1800 080704 1800 080705 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 108.7W 18.7N 109.9W 19.7N 112.3W 20.1N 115.8W
BAMD 15.7N 110.6W 16.5N 112.5W 16.5N 114.4W 16.8N 116.8W
BAMM 15.8N 109.7W 17.2N 110.8W 17.9N 112.6W 18.7N 115.5W
LBAR 16.8N 113.5W 18.9N 116.8W 21.2N 119.6W 22.9N 122.2W
SHIP 60KTS 54KTS 47KTS 43KTS
DSHP 60KTS 54KTS 47KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 104.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 101.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 97.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNN

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

HWRF has it as a hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

What a surprise!!!

[HURAKAN]

A lot of work has to be done to get a TD from 96E!! Looks a lot like a disturbance from the WPAC. Nice circulation but too broad.

[RL3AO]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008063012-invest96e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

HWRF has it as a hurricane.

It also has it as a 50kt TS at 0z tonight. It won't quite make that.

[cycloneye]

A new TCFA issued.

391
WTPN21 PGTW 302000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292000Z JUN 08//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 292000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 104.0W TO 15.2N 108.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 104.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 301307Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, AND SHOWS WINDS OF 10 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTER, WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ON THE OUTER EDGES. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT,
WITH A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE TO EAST PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS MAKE FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
012000Z.//

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just staring at the Floater 8 visible, and it probably meets the minimal requirements to be a TD, in my unprofessional opinion.

[HURAKAN]

Sorry Ed but this is not a tropical depression. It's still a disorganized and broad disturbance.