Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

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cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 94E in EPAC

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:04 pm


WHXX01 KMIA 251858
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1858 UTC WED JUN 25 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942008) 20080625 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080625 1800 080626 0600 080626 1800 080627 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 101.1W 10.5N 103.6W 11.3N 106.0W 12.2N 108.2W
BAMD 9.5N 101.1W 10.0N 103.5W 10.5N 105.6W 11.0N 107.5W
BAMM 9.5N 101.1W 10.4N 103.4W 11.1N 105.6W 11.8N 107.6W
LBAR 9.5N 101.1W 10.5N 103.7W 11.4N 106.6W 12.4N 109.4W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 44KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080627 1800 080628 1800 080629 1800 080630 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 110.0W 13.8N 114.1W 14.7N 117.6W 15.2N 121.7W
BAMD 11.6N 109.4W 12.5N 112.9W 12.9N 117.2W 13.7N 121.7W
BAMM 12.6N 109.6W 14.0N 113.6W 14.9N 118.4W 15.7N 123.7W
LBAR 13.3N 112.0W 15.5N 117.1W 16.7N 122.0W 12.7N 123.9W
SHIP 52KTS 64KTS 63KTS 60KTS
DSHP 52KTS 64KTS 63KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 101.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 8.1N LONM12 = 98.5W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 7.2N LONM24 = 96.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 25, 2008 4:02 pm

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#23 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 25, 2008 5:04 pm

Indeed its starting to look more and more organised now, still got some good convectionn around the center and it does look pretty decent right now. We shall see what happens but I think its slowly on its way to becoming a tropical depression. SHIPS still taking this upto minimal hurricane force as well so they clearly think this will be a pretty big player.
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Re: INVEST 94E in EPAC

#24 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 25, 2008 6:36 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 252325
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 25, 2008 7:40 pm

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Tomorrow could be an interesting day.
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Re: INVEST 94E in EPAC

#26 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 25, 2008 7:44 pm

345
WHXX01 KMIA 260041
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC THU JUN 26 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942008) 20080626 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080626 0000 080626 1200 080627 0000 080627 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 102.4W 11.6N 104.6W 12.5N 106.8W 13.4N 108.6W
BAMD 10.5N 102.4W 11.0N 104.6W 11.5N 106.6W 12.1N 108.5W
BAMM 10.5N 102.4W 11.3N 104.6W 12.1N 106.7W 12.9N 108.7W
LBAR 10.5N 102.4W 11.5N 105.2W 12.6N 108.0W 13.5N 110.8W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 37KTS 47KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 37KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080628 0000 080629 0000 080630 0000 080701 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 110.4W 15.8N 114.5W 16.8N 119.3W 17.5N 125.3W
BAMD 12.8N 110.3W 13.9N 114.4W 14.6N 119.5W 15.7N 125.8W
BAMM 13.9N 110.7W 15.5N 115.1W 16.7N 120.7W 17.9N 127.5W
LBAR 14.8N 113.5W 16.9N 118.5W 18.5N 123.8W 12.5N 124.7W
SHIP 55KTS 59KTS 62KTS 60KTS
DSHP 55KTS 59KTS 62KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 102.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 99.7W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 7.5N LONM24 = 97.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


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#27 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 25, 2008 7:45 pm

Oh thats starting to look a lot like a tropical depression now I have to admit look at that deep convection over the system, an upgrade is probably not all that far away I'd imagine looking at that.
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#28 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 25, 2008 9:35 pm

we mentioned it this evening and were quite aggressive in calling for formation
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Re: INVEST 94E in EPAC

#29 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 25, 2008 10:12 pm

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#30 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 26, 2008 4:58 am

It maybe slightly lacking in deep convection in places but I think it must be very close to being a tropical depression now looking at its current organisation.
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 26, 2008 6:22 am

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#32 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 26, 2008 6:42 am

Looking increasingly good now can see the deep convection has increased quite a lot now expanding to the NW, I think tropical depression status must be quite close now surely?

Just waiting for the first few visible images to come through now whenever that will be.
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Re: INVEST 94E in EPAC

#33 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 26, 2008 7:01 am

081
ABPZ20 KNHC 261145
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 26, 2008 7:19 am

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First double of the season!
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Re: INVEST 94E in EPAC=5 AM PDT TWO=TD next day or two

#35 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 26, 2008 7:43 am

WHXX01 KMIA 261238
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC THU JUN 26 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942008) 20080626 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080626 1200 080627 0000 080627 1200 080628 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 105.4W 11.9N 107.6W 12.7N 109.6W 13.4N 111.5W
BAMD 11.0N 105.4W 11.6N 107.4W 12.3N 109.2W 13.1N 110.9W
BAMM 11.0N 105.4W 11.8N 107.5W 12.6N 109.5W 13.6N 111.4W
LBAR 11.0N 105.4W 12.0N 108.1W 12.9N 110.7W 13.9N 113.3W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS 55KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080628 1200 080629 1200 080630 1200 080701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 113.5W 14.9N 117.8W 15.7N 123.0W 16.5N 129.1W
BAMD 13.8N 112.8W 14.8N 117.2W 15.9N 123.0W 17.8N 129.8W
BAMM 14.4N 113.5W 15.7N 118.4W 17.0N 125.0W 19.3N 132.4W
LBAR 15.0N 116.0W 16.4N 121.1W 17.5N 126.8W 12.9N 129.9W
SHIP 62KTS 66KTS 57KTS 54KTS
DSHP 62KTS 66KTS 57KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 105.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 102.4W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 99.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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#36 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 26, 2008 7:52 am

Now upto 25kts as well now so its getting there now, just really waitin for the NHC to pull the trigger with regards to this invest really, also SHIPS still get upto hurricane status by 72hrs.
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Re: INVEST 94E in EPAC

#37 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 26, 2008 7:56 am

26/1145 UTC 11.5N 104.7W T1.0/1.0 94E -- East Pacific Ocean
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#38 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 26, 2008 8:30 am

Ah its a little short according to that cycloneye thats probably why they are holding back on upgrading this system right now then, its getting there though.
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#39 Postby Chacor » Thu Jun 26, 2008 8:34 am

For what it's worth, TAFB have this at T1.5/1.5:
EP, 94, 200806261145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1060N, 10550W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, CB, I, 5, 1515 /////, , , GOES12, CSC, T, DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=
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#40 Postby Chacor » Thu Jun 26, 2008 9:21 am

First visibles...

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