WPAC: Developed Low ex-Nakri

[KWT]

It looks very good right now, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it becomes a decent strength typhoon, its got a really good structure and banding now.

[wyq614]

has been named NAKRI

[KWT]

Yeah not at all surprising really, I wouldn't be surprised if its borderline typhoon strength right now actually.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0805 NAKRI (0805) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 14.3N 137.6E POOR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 15.8N 136.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 290600UTC 17.6N 136.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 300600UTC 19.7N 135.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[Chacor]

Up to T3.0 at 12z.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 14.3N 137.4E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 15.5N 136.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 291200UTC 16.8N 136.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 301200UTC 18.7N 135.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Chacor]

Small and compact storm.

[Chacor]

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NAKRI) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE FORWARD
TRACK SPEED HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 06 TO 12
HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MORE
CONSOLIDATED AND A 271032Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE.
B. THE CYCLONE REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
AXIS, WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY TOWARD
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON 271200Z FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD,
AS WELL AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INCLUDING THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. TS 06W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED UPON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND 3.0 FROM RJTD, AND RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS BEEN CHANGED SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING. THE FORWARD TRACK SPEED THROUGH
TAU 72 HAS BEEN DECREASED DUE TO A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. TS 06W WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE
NEAR TAU 72, AS IT REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND THIS EASTERN RIDGE EXERTS A SLIGHTLY MORE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE THAN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE WEST. TS 06W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THESE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES WILL ALLOW TS 06W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE WESTERN STEERING RIDGE AND THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD
TO THE WEST. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. TS 06W WILL THEN BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRODUCTION OF COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION OF TS 06W WILL BEGIN PRIOR TO TAU 120.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like only a threat to Iwo To and Chichi Jima, as a weakened system.

[KWT]

Looks like a decent system right now, as has been daid a nice small compact system with some deep convection over the center, got to watch for an eye starting to develop now.

WPAC really pumping out these early season cyclones aren't they, pretty impressive start given we were in la nina just a little while ago.

[cycloneye]

300
WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 137.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 137.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.1N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.8N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.4N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.2N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.3N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.0N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.8N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 137.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN AD-
JUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 96.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//

[KWT]

Certainly looking an impressive system, I personally think its a little stronger then what its currently estimated at but there you go!
Looks like there is a decent chance looking at it currently plus the forecast for it to become a typhoon over the next 48hrs IMO, quite probably sooner then that actually.

[Chacor]

T3.5 from JMA at 00z.

[HURAKAN]

Nakri could be nearing typhoon status. Small systems can be surprising.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0805 NAKRI (0805) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 14.8N 137.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 15.8N 136.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 300000UTC 17.1N 134.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 310000UTC 19.0N 133.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[cycloneye]

501
WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 137.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 137.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.9N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.6N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.2N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.7N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.9N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.4N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 28.2N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 137.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A REVISION TO THE PAST STORM MOTION
BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS CHANGED THE PREVIOUS
SIX HOUR TRACK SPEED ESTIMATE FROM 02 KNOTS TO 05 KNOTS.
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT TRACK SPEED OF 05 KNOTS SUGGESTS THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS PROGRESSED STEADILY FORWARD WITHOUT ACCELER-
ATING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z,
282100Z AND 290300Z.//

[Chacor]

Nearly a typhoon from JMA. NRL/JTWC have it at 65 kts now.

WTPQ20 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 15.8N 136.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 17.1N 135.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 301200UTC 18.9N 133.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 311200UTC 20.9N 133.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[StormspinnerD2]

Looks quite good, structure-wise.

[KWT]

Oh yes that is looking good now, the eye has emerged quite well and the eyewall looks closed as well which is another sign that this system has strengthened well recently.

I think this probably is a typhoon, the main question is how strong will it become in the enxt 72hrs, no reason why it can't IMO get upto 90-100kts if not more like other recent cyclones in this region.

[HURAKAN]