ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

and there you go on intensity....as I was explaining, now the NHC is more convinced:

From the 11AM TWO:

...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A
HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY 72
HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN...AND HANNA
COULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING. STILL...PREDICTING THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY...AT DAYS 3-5 IS VERY DIFFICULT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... HHMM.shtml

[KWT]

I think Hanna quite possibly has every shot of being a cat-1/2 before it make slandfall..

Will be interesting to see how much latitude it loses in the next 24hrs if much at all.

I think everywhere needs to watch this closely just in case, this is more organised then it was expected to be at this time about 24hrs. The NHC track it should be noted is very close to central and northern Florida.

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

All of FL is now back in the cone Floridians including all of peninsula Southern Florida...

and Hanna is now expected to be a hurricane off the coast of Florida and should affect the Bahamas and somewhere along the SE Coast of the CONUS....

[caneman]

one more shift West and Jax is in the crosshairs.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

Also the thing to note they now expect a 70kts landfalling hurricane, thats not a bad hurricane and also with it expected to go over the gulf stream waters I wouldn't be all that surprised if this comes in if anythnig a little higher then that forecast.

[Lifesgud2]

All of FL is now back in the cone Floridians including all of peninsula Southern Florida...

and Hanna is now expected to be a hurricane off the coast of Florida and should affect the Bahamas and somewhere along the SE Coast of the CONUS....

Gator..

On this present track, would the NHC issue watches warnings for Broward, PB counties?

[CourierPR]

If Hanna does go to a Hurricane that would put her going more to the north than to the west. Like you said what to wait for recon.

Again, based on what?

[chris_fit]

55kt FL wind found already by recon.

[gatorcane]

All of FL is now back in the cone Floridians including all of peninsula Southern Florida...

and Hanna is now expected to be a hurricane off the coast of Florida and should affect the Bahamas and somewhere along the SE Coast of the CONUS....

Gator..

On this present track, would the NHC issue watches warnings for Broward, PB counties?

That depends on wind speed probabilities for geographical areas. It's too early to say at this point. For those along the SE Coast of Florida, just a small shift to the west puts the forecast track very close to SE Florida.

Considering that each of the last several advisories keep shift the track left ever so slightly we cannot rule it out at this time.

[captain east]

This is fun, LOL. Soon we might have a depression # 10 too....

[AdamFirst]

All of FL is now back in the cone Floridians including all of peninsula Southern Florida...

and Hanna is now expected to be a hurricane off the coast of Florida and should affect the Bahamas and somewhere along the SE Coast of the CONUS....

Gator..

On this present track, would the NHC issue watches warnings for Broward, PB counties?

If the track checks I would guess TS Watches will be up tomorrow. Probably.

[Grease Monkey]

This is fun, LOL. Soon we might have a depression # 10 too....

It looks like a train in the atlantic now.

[Regit]

one more shift West and Jax is in the crosshairs.

It should be noted that the landfall point shifted ever so slightly NE this time. In the 5AM forecast, it was at the mouth of the Savannah River. Now, it's closer to Hilton Head.

[Grease Monkey]

one more shift West and Jax is in the crosshairs.

It should be noted that the landfall point shifted ever so slightly NE this time. In the 5AM forecast, it was at the mouth of the Savannah River. Now, it's closer to Hilton Head.

I'm confused. I thought the track was supposed to shift west and based on the 11am discussion.
Update:
Nevermind I see now.

[Trader Ron]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Looks South of the NHC track.

[storms in NC]

If Hanna does go to a Hurricane that would put her going more to the north than to the west. Like you said what to wait for recon.

Again, based on what?

Most of the time the stronger the storm more north it would go. But it don't alway happen but most of the time. The weaker the storm more west it goes.

[gatorcane]

one more shift West and Jax is in the crosshairs.

It should be noted that the landfall point shifted ever so slightly NE this time. In the 5AM forecast, it was at the mouth of the Savannah River. Now, it's closer to Hilton Head.

I'm confused. I thought the track was supposed to shift west and based on the 11am discussion.

short-term it did long-term it basically stayed the same.

[jlauderdal]

All of FL is now back in the cone Floridians including all of peninsula Southern Florida...

and Hanna is now expected to be a hurricane off the coast of Florida and should affect the Bahamas and somewhere along the SE Coast of the CONUS....

without rehashing last nights back and forth about the cone tht we had in this thread, just remember the cone is fixed in size and as the system moves closer to the se usa it will encompass more land area and look more imposing, dont be fooled by the cone