ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[A1A]

Looks like a corpus strike there....Can't tell...Watched too many footballs flying today..Maybe the EURO is on to something Rocky.

Coop, I have been telling you bro...EURO latched on 2 days ago...4 runs in a row in same general area......globals have been trending west since....of course you called me a EURO hugger....

Does the EURO appear on the swf ensemble? http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

If yes, what symbol does it use?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Canadian has dirty side all over Tampa/St Pete area on way to Panhandle...

Well that means that there is still uncertainty...but on the model plots the storm makes a hard
west and heads far away from Tampa Bay...but Ed I agree that there is still some uncertainty
lurking...my amateurish mind is not a reliable source of information...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Canadian has dirty side all over Tampa/St Pete area on way to Panhandle...

BOOOO CANADA!!!!

I was just watching BayNews9 and saw that they no longer had us in the cone and I got excited! I know that I'll keep watching Ike because 1) I'm addicted to this stuff and 2) He keeps switching up on me so, I won't turn my back on him!

At least there's 2 of us so, we can keep an almost 24 hour watch! When Chrissy goes to bed, then it's my turn to hop on here and see what's happening!

[haml8]

So the breakdown is this: (INSERT DISCLAIMER HERE for interpretation reasons Consult NHC for proper interp, but to my fellow board members

GFDL: ride the spine of Cuba WNW eventuall moving more westerly once it hits 90W then (question?)

GFS: Same thing really af GFDL

HWRF: Same as GFDL (maybe a touch south)

UKMET South of Cuba, North of Jamaica possible west to Yucatan.

Euro: Same as GFDL and once at 90W hauling butt WSW then south into MX.

Is this an accurate Summary

[ROCK]

Looks like a corpus strike there....Can't tell...Watched too many footballs flying today..Maybe the EURO is on to something Rocky.

Coop, I have been telling you bro...EURO latched on 2 days ago...4 runs in a row in same general area......globals have been trending west since....of course you called me a EURO hugger....

Does the EURO appear on the swf ensemble? http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

If yes, what symbol does it use?

no...heres the link.....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[haml8]

Thanks for the feedback guys.. This has saved me some reading tonight, I maight actually get some sleep Get addicted at times to this board... Ed, what is your gut feeling on this cold front? Most of the fronts that have tried to come through here latley have stalled north in Dallas and not closed the deal? Waht would this do? Open up a SE TX hit?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So the breakdown is this: (INSERT DISCLAIMER HERE for interpretation reasons Consult NHC for proper interp, but to my fellow board members

GFDL: ride the spine of Cuba WNW eventuall moving more westerly once it hits 90W then (question?)

GFS: Same thing really af GFDL

HWRF: Same as GFDL (maybe a touch south)

UKMET South of Cuba, North of Jamaica possible west to Yucatan.

Euro: Same as GFDL and once at 90W hauling butt WSW then south into MX.

Is this an accurate Summary

Sounds reasonable to me. Based on those model projections, Hurricane Ike's gonna haul a$$ westward
to the west Gulf.

In the meantime, I'm gonna hit da crib fo rizzay and git sum sleep up in dis subtropical climate.

[Wx_Warrior]

CMC is nearly trash-worthy most of the time...If a trough or weakness isn't found...Ike is more likely to travel w then now, which would put him Central Texas or more towards Corpus. Who knows...These storms have been crazy thus far and this one isn't any different.

[Duddy]

What is the science behind a central Texas coat hit (Corpus?).

No, central Texas is Matagorda Bay. Near Port Lavaca. The 00z GFS has it over Matagorda. My county.

[HouTXmetro]

I forecasted Gustav to pass within 75 miles of New Orleans and struck gold, so here is My Unofficial Forecast and Formula

EURO + Climotolagy= Cone of Uncertainty (Corpus Christi, TX to Lake Charles, LA)

FINAL ANSWER

[Wx_Warrior]

If the trough doesn't make it then I'd guesstimate Corpus to Central la.

[ROCK]

Looks like a corpus strike there....Can't tell...Watched too many footballs flying today..Maybe the EURO is on to something Rocky.

Coop, I have been telling you bro...EURO latched on 2 days ago...4 runs in a row in same general area......globals have been trending west since....of course you called me a EURO hugger....

Does this mean that you'll get your Shiner on ice then? I sure hope so 'cause then at least something good will come of this storm!

I'm just soooo giddy to be out of the cone for the moment and I hope that it stays that way!!

Sorry, Texas. You are a great state full of awesome people but, I really didn't want this one anywhere close to me!

nah, I am going to crawfish on that deal.....Treasure...

with any storm I have fun tracking them and talking trash now and then, but when it comes down to pucker time I get serious.....

[HouTXmetro]

If the trough doesn't make it then I'd guesstimate Corpus to Central la.

That's what I'm calling for. I am a confessed EURO hugger after 2007 Dean and Felix. GFS 2nd.

[Jagno]

I forecasted Gustav to pass within 75 miles of New Orleans and struck gold, so here is My Unofficial Forecast and Formula

EURO + Climotolagy= Cone of Uncertainty (Corpus Christi, TX to Lake Charles, LA)

FINAL ANSWER

Hmmmm, Corpus Christi to Lake Charles is a much wider spread than 75 miles from New Orleans. Either way isn't going to be pretty.

[jinftl]

What could be an interesting developement in the next few days is that if the tracks stays more on the southern side of the cone, tropical storm warnings may be needed for Jamaica and a hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands. That would be remarkable from a storm now north of both of those locations in latitude.

Not having a hurricane warning for north coast of haiti is a close call as well.

[haml8]

Based off of what you guys have shown me and looking quickly at the models, looks like the cone will include Texas soon and show a eventual Corups to W-LA land fall eventually. (Ed is right, the board will have all Texas posters flipping out we will need to keep them at bay and chill em out so they don't mis represent j/k ) Of course Texas is the majority stakeholder. The plus here is that ther is ALOT of time left and this models have been WACKY! So we will just have to wait and see. With Gustav the trough was the player, I guess the cold front will be the player in this one? I just have a hard time thinking that the cold front will make it far enough down to make a difference. Again, I am just talking out loud here.. not an official forecast or even an amature hypothesis I rely on the pro mets and "rank amatures" around here to give me solid input

[HouTXmetro]

I forecasted Gustav to pass within 75 miles of New Orleans and struck gold, so here is My Unofficial Forecast and Formula

EURO + Climotolagy= Cone of Uncertainty (Corpus Christi, TX to Lake Charles, LA)

FINAL ANSWER

Hmmmm, Corpus Christi to Lake Charles is a much wider spread than 75 miles from New Orleans. Either way isn't going to be pretty.

Not really, I called for 75 miles east or west of New Orleans which is a radius 150 miles. Being this far out I can't narrow it down. But of course this is pure specualtion and I am not a pro. Just an amateur like you guys. We all have our formulas, but refer to the NHC.....lol

[Weatherfreak000]

THE STORM IS 7 DAYS AWAY. CALM DOWN.

[ROCK]

ok now back to business.......0z GFDL rolling in....

out 36hrs now

[Jagno]

I forecasted Gustav to pass within 75 miles of New Orleans and struck gold, so here is My Unofficial Forecast and Formula

EURO + Climotolagy= Cone of Uncertainty (Corpus Christi, TX to Lake Charles, LA)

FINAL ANSWER

Hmmmm, I was just picking/joking! Both are extremely narrow margins in comparison to the NHC cones and in my opinion, much too soon to tell.