ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah gatorcane it does look interesting, I wonder if this is the reason why the models have been strengthening Hanna despite the shear being forecasted?

Once the shear does ease down I think we can expect some pretty decent strengthening occuring withthe constant convective burst, plus lets remember its got the gulf stream to go over...I think this could well be another cat-2 landfall if the shear eases up quickly enough.

[umguy]

Yeah gatorcane it does look interesting, I wonder if this is the reason why the models have been strengthening Hanna despite the shear being forecasted?

Once the shear does ease down I think we can expect some pretty decent strengthening occuring withthe constant convective burst, plus lets remember its got the gulf stream to go over...I think this could well be another cat-2 landfall if the shear eases up quickly enough.

Very true the hurricane hot water bath.

[gatorcane]

Yeah gatorcane it does look interesting, I wonder if this is the reason why the models have been strengthening Hanna despite the shear being forecasted?

Once the shear does ease down I think we can expect some pretty decent strengthening occuring withthe constant convective burst, plus lets remember its got the gulf stream to go over...I think this could well be another cat-2 landfall if the shear eases up quickly enough.

The NHC has been below the model guidance for most of the forecast projections of Hanna. Models want to strengthen her more but NHC clearly does not buy it just yet ---

but NHC does mentions each forecast discussion that the NHC intensity forecast is below the intensity forecast from the model consensus which means its possible it could get stronger but NHC wants to be convinced more before forecasting it.

[meteorologyman]

I hope Hanna doesn't become an Andrew, remember he had shear and once shear decreased it RI into high end CAT4, and he was over the Bahammas

[Blown Away]

So do we see a W cone shift at 11am? Usually the shift it the opposite way I was thinking!

[AdamFirst]

I hope Hanna doesn't become an Andrew, remember he had shear and once shear decreased it RI into high end CAT4, and he was over the Bahammas

Don't worry, Andrew had more time to develop than Hanna...I don't think anyone expects a CAT5 monster

[boca]

Look at Hanna faning out now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Impressive indeed, there is some northerly shear from Gustav...but I tell you sure looks like an anticyclonic flow is trying to build in especially for Hanna's southern side.

I'm wondering if Hanna gets stronger the ridge gets pumped up forcing her more westerly rather than that sharp NNW turn.

[umguy]

I hope Hanna doesn't become an Andrew, remember he had shear and once shear decreased it RI into high end CAT4, and he was over the Bahammas

I've been thinking the same thing. Or maybe more like trying to forget about it right now.

[vbhoutex]

Not to play devil's advocate, but even NHC is saying in their discussions the track is uncertain.

Not to mention the NHC states at the 5am EST discussion:

"ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR
HANNA"

I'm not sure Heather living in Florida how you feel better reading the NHC discussion when they indicate this

Nonetheless its doubtful Hanna will ever be as strong as Gustav and the intensity forecasts by the models are not showing a major out of Hanna at this time.

I think she could be a cat 1 to a 2. By the she is looking today I think by this afternoon we will have a low cat 1.This is NOT a FORCAST JMO

Why? What factors make you think this? Back your self up with some facts instead of just stating an opinion. It brings a lor more credibility to your posting. I've seen storms that looked hugely impressive and if that is all I went on I would have guessed a "CAT5" was imminent, if I hadn't looked further and seen that other factors in the synoptics were getting ready to affect it. Gustav is even a good example of this since he didn't "perform" as expected due to shear and dry air entrainment.

[gatorcane]

Look at Hanna faning out now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Impressive indeed, there is some northerly shear from Gustav...but I tell you sure looks like an anticyclonic flow is trying to build in especially for Hanna's southern side.

I'm wondering if Hanna gets stronger the ridge gets pumped up forcing her more westerly rather than that sharp NNW turn.

I don't know but I tell you something. Check out TD 7 that just formed in the central Atlantic.....it may be prudcent to monitor this situation.

[gatorcane]

Look at Hanna faning out now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Impressive indeed, there is some northerly shear from Gustav...but I tell you sure looks like an anticyclonic flow is trying to build in especially for Hanna's southern side.

I'm wondering if Hanna gets stronger the ridge gets pumped up forcing her more westerly rather than that sharp NNW turn.

latest:

[storms in NC]

{but NHC wants to be convinced more before forecasting it.}

I can understand why.

[Evil Jeremy]

So do we see a W cone shift at 11am? Usually the shift it the opposite way I was thinking!

Yes, especially with the center reforming further south.

[AJC3]

I don't know but I tell you something. Check out TD 7 that just formed in the central Atlantic.....it may be prudcent to monitor this situation.

nine

[meteorologyman]

The NHC has been below the model guidance for most of the forecast projections of Hanna. Models want to strengthen her more but NHC clearly does not buy it just yet ---

but NHC does mentions each forecast discussion that the NHC intensity forecast is below the intensity forecast from the model consensus which means its possible it could get stronger but NHC wants to be convinced more before forecasting it.[/quote]

This is what I'm concern of, there maybe a possiblity of dangerous Hurricane impacting anyone in SE coast between 48-72 hours, evacuations need to be taken into an account in my oppinion, and I thin it takes at least 48 hours to get majority of the people out, but at the rate nhc is forecasting her it could be 24 hours or less at landfall before they say yeah she's going to be a very bad storm. this is just my sickening gut feeling

[Lifesgud2]

Gatorcane...

Any chance of Hannah making landfall up your way..say central Fla? Right now it seems as if she is stalling.

[storms in NC]

If Hanna does go to a Hurricane that would put her going more to the north than to the west. Like you said what to wait for recon.

[greels]

Question for you.......

"If" recon finds that Hanna has strengthened and is possibly a Cat 1, does NHC issue an alert immediately or do they wait until their next advisory is scheduled to be posted.

I am getting quite concerned here on Provo.....it's really nasty here.

Many thanks for any answer I may get to this.

[gatorcane]

anybody in the cone should pay attention...

[AdamFirst]

Question for you.......

"If" recon finds that Hanna has strengthened and is possibly a Cat 1, does NHC issue an alert immediately or do they wait until their next advisory is scheduled to be posted.

I am getting quite concerned here on Provo.....it's really nasty here.

Many thanks for any answer I may get to this.

If they find evidence that it has strengthened into a hurricane, they would issue an immediate advisory. They did it for Gustav when it blew up south of Cuba