ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

Still working out the kinks on my new map...

very nice, just want to say I really appreciate these maps, they were great with Fay and I like this one even more!

[KWT]

It looks a mess cpdaman BUT its inner core prehaps looks the best it has done since about 9hrs ago IMO with the eye emerging again and deep convection in the northern and western eyewall.

tolakram, looks good, seems like a slight WNW jog to me.

[Scorpion]

looks to be impacted by shear from the trough to its north, particularly the NE side of the storm

honestly it looks like a mess when you view it from 'the big picture'

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

huge mass of storms sucked northeast thru puerto rico and hispanola

gustav is a tiny little bugger

What are you talking about? It's looking really good now.

[cheezyWXguy]

looks to be impacted by shear from the trough to its north, particularly the NE side of the storm

honestly it looks like a mess when you view it from 'the big picture'

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

huge mass of storms sucked northeast thru puerto rico and hispanola

gustav is a tiny little bugger

It does not look like a mess and there is not shear affecting the storm right now...thats why it has an eye and outflow is excellent in all quads. There is a weakness in the ne quad that is quickly filling in now and should be gone in about 3 hours. By 5am I could see this at hurricane.

[Lowpressure]

Great work on the maps. Is there a way to put elevation values on some parts of the islands? With Fay there was much debate over terrain over the Greater Antilles.

[cpdaman]

looks to be impacted by shear from the trough to its north, particularly the NE side of the storm

honestly it looks like a mess when you view it from 'the big picture'

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

huge mass of storms sucked northeast thru puerto rico and hispanola

gustav is a tiny little bugger

What are you talking about? It's looking really good now.

look at my link NOT the close up floater (for a moment0 , look at all the storms getting sucked away north of hispanola and puerto rico, doesn't look too favorable of conditions

also on the floater look at the NE corner of convection, it IS missing, West looks great, south too but that aint gonna cut it IMO

cheezywxman the convection that trys to pop in the NE quad gets sucked NE like it has all day

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Also, WHY does the forward motion slow down so much beyond
day 3 in NHC's latest forecast???


I have asked this 3 times, but got no answer.

Perhaps If I take a guess and am way wrong about it somebody will come correct it with the right answer. But I think it has to do with the front that supposed to also change its direction to more northward movement in the coming days which running into makes sense to slow it down. Any Pros care to verify or debunk that?

Regardless I think we'll see significant track/intensity forecast changes in the next 12 hours judging by the way its looking atm. Then again the NHC is going to gradually move their track over time even if its way off at least I think that is how they work.

Thanks....true this will be a long wait and see situation.

[cycloneye]

Great work on the maps. Is there a way to put elevation values on some parts of the islands? With Fay there was much debate over terrain over the Greater Antilles.

That is a great idea.I think HURAKAN has those graphics of the mountains.

[deltadog03]

While, we sit back and relax...haaa jk I remind you last wed. nights run of the euro showed a huge storm over the tip of western cuba...I know euro dosn't show it like this now, but that would be CRAZY for a model to nail something like that 10 days out.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

looks to be impacted by shear from the trough to its north, particularly the NE side of the storm

honestly it looks like a mess when you view it from 'the big picture'

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

huge mass of storms sucked northeast thru puerto rico and hispanola

gustav is a tiny little bugger

Maybe the elevation of Hispanola is partly to blame. As those bands try to swirl around Gustav, they are hitting those mountains head on, and forced to splay out around them. Of course, there very well could be some shear too!

[deltadog03]

Interesting verification from Dr. Masters.... This was for FAY

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/i ... verify.gif

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS=The Best track at 00:00 UTC has the intensity up to 55kts and it will be the 11 PM EDT advisory intensity,pending surprises of the last minute.

AL, 07, 2008082600, , BEST, 0, 164N, 712W, 55, 993, TS,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[srainhoutx]

While, we sit back and relax...haaa jk I remind you last wed. nights run of the euro showed a huge storm over the tip of western cuba...I know euro dosn't show it like this now, but that would be CRAZY for a model to nail something like that 10 days out.

Yep. I know that several did a double take on that run.

[Bolebuns]

Does anyone have a detailed pic of surface temps in the GOM?

Thanks!

B

[RL3AO]

Does anyone have a detailed pic of surface temps in the GOM?

Thanks!

B

[KWT]

55kts now, hardly surprising given the inner core is continuing to rev up quite nicely at the current time, as lnog as the inner core continues to look pretty decent then Gustav will strengthen.

[Ivanhater]

[RattleMan]

While, we sit back and relax...haaa jk I remind you last wed. nights run of the euro showed a huge storm over the tip of western cuba...I know euro dosn't show it like this now, but that would be CRAZY for a model to nail something like that 10 days out.

[cheezyWXguy]

55kts now, hardly surprising given the inner core is continuing to rev up quite nicely at the current time, as lnog as the inner core continues to look pretty decent then Gustav will strengthen.

I expect 60 kt at 11pm...this thing is definitely strengthening now and once that ne quad closes off then this thing should begin to take off.

[cpdaman]

awesome ivan hater

feel free to keep these coming