ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[O Town]

HWRF has it as a cat 5 in the gulf and GFDL as a cat 3 in the gulf so far

gfdl was at 120kt i think....140 mph...but WOW hwrf cat 5?

That says max winds 116 kts. which is a Cat. 4

[Scorpion]

I think Jamaica might need to watch out for a strengthening Cat 4 if it keeps headed west like this.

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow: That says max winds 116 kts. which is a Cat. 4 114-135kts.

yes but a pressure of 910mb equates to a cat 5. Ivan was 165 at 910. Wilma wasnt because she was a freak of nature and thats the only storm I can find that wasnt a cat 5 at 910.

[KWT]

Tampa Bay, I guess its partly because the steering weakens a little but also they are just unsure of the track I guess, they should speed it up though in the next few advisories as well show slight shifts south.

also I think this is undergoing a strengthening phase, the northern quadrant doesn't look amazing but the inner core is tightening up and thats what matters really with developing storms, I'd have thought 60kts is a good guess right now.

[RL3AO]

:uarrow: That says max winds 116 kts. which is a Cat. 4 114-135kts.

yes but a pressure of 910mb equates to a cat 5. Ivan was 165 at 910. Wilma wasnt because she was a freak of nature and thats the only storm I can find that wasnt a cat 5 at 910.

Those models always over do the pressures.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks KWT!

[fci]

Jamaica seems to have "Tampa Bay" type shield which usually deflects storms from giving them a direct hit.

Just my observation over the years.....

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow: That says max winds 116 kts. which is a Cat. 4 114-135kts.

yes but a pressure of 910mb equates to a cat 5. Ivan was 165 at 910. Wilma wasnt because she was a freak of nature and thats the only storm I can find that wasnt a cat 5 at 910.

Those models always over do the pressures.

Thats true. I didnt say it was correct, but if that pressure were to verify, then it would almost 100% certainly be a cat 5

[HURAKAN]

Looks to be close to hurricane status.

Like I said before, just like a volcano, 94L erupted!!!

[wxman57]

I see that the 18Z GFDL is very close to my track over the western tip of Cuba Friday evening and into the SE Gulf, turning north between 86-88W. Looks reasonable as that ridge may hold in north of Gustav until Friday afternoon. NHC should be shifting its track south of Cuba tonight and trending toward a similar track farther west and a good bit faster.

Yeah given the NHc are still north of most other models they will have to trend a little further south. The thing that is very interesting is that if it does take that bend back west it will travel over some of the most impressive heat content in the entire basin, if it has its inner core and little shear that is ingrediants for some rapid strengthening into a pretty powerful system I reckon.

GFDL takes it to 115 kts at 114 hrs now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks to be close to hurricane status.

Yep, already an eye forming...can you believe this just formed today? If this is bumped up at 11pm or 5 am, wouldnt this beat out Humberto? That looks possible once deep convection wraps totally around the center.

[KWT]

Yeah on that track thats probably quite possible I'd have thought wxman57. Early days but is there anything other then land interaction that could prevent a major hurricane in the western Caribbean/Gulf?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Jamaica seems to have "Tampa Bay" type shield which usually deflects storms from giving them a direct hit.

Just my observation over the years.....

LOL that Tampa Bay shield was destroyed in 2004 when Jeanne marched across the state
and did some category 1 force structural damage...the eye was in northeast Hillsborough
within 20 miles of Tampa...though a recording station near Boca Ciega Bay (Saint Petersburg
Beach) recorded sustained winds of 91 mph with gusts to 104 mph (bcbaywatch.com) during
Jeanne. Also, the structural damage near Saint Pete/Clearwater Beaches
of shops having entire doors blown in, roofs blown off,
and concrete ripped from the sides of condominiums suggest a strong category 1 direct hit.

In any case, hopefully Gustav stays far away from Tampa Bay.

[Dean4Storms]

You nailed it Wxman57, that ridge holds until Gustav gets into the SE GOM and then the weakness over the Gulf will become a big player.

[sphelps8681]

I did not know where to post this question, so I will ask it here. This may sound a little silly, but does the moon phase (new moon, full moon) have any impacts on Tropical weather strength. Last week Tropical Storm Fay was not under a good moon phase. My husband and I fish alot and I also check moon phase, pressures, etc when we go fishing. I collected data on pressure, tides, moon phase, etc and we always got more fish during low pressure, new moon/full moon. When the moon is full or new fishing is always better. If low pressure fishing is good to. Does this also apply to Tropical weather? We are approaching a new moon this weekend.

Just curious.

[LSU2001]

Jamaica seems to have "Tampa Bay" type shield which usually deflects storms from giving them a direct hit.

Just my observation over the years.....

Yeah like the Ivan jump

[Lowpressure]

Also, WHY does the forward motion slow down so much beyond
day 3 in NHC's latest forecast???


I have asked this 3 times, but got no answer.

I would be guessing, but would venture to guess it is to allow for uncertainty that far out-day 4/5. A 14 kt forward speed window would have potential huge errors and a large cone.
Just my thinking.

[tolakram]

Still working out the kinks on my new map...

Google earth using Google terrain maps overlay.

[cpdaman]

looks to be impacted by shear from the trough to its north, particularly the NE side of the storm

honestly it looks like a mess when you view it from 'the big picture'

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

huge mass of storms sucked northeast thru puerto rico and hispanola

gustav is a tiny little bugger

[Smurfwicked]

Also, WHY does the forward motion slow down so much beyond
day 3 in NHC's latest forecast???


I have asked this 3 times, but got no answer.

Perhaps If I take a guess and am way wrong about it somebody will come correct it with the right answer. But I think it has to do with the front that supposed to also change its direction to more northward movement in the coming days which running into makes sense to slow it down. Any Pros care to verify or debunk that?

Regardless I think we'll see significant track/intensity forecast changes in the next 12 hours judging by the way its looking atm. Then again the NHC is going to gradually move their track over time even if its way off at least I think that is how they work.