ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Windy]

96hr:



102hr:



108hr:

[Duddy]

The trough is clearly evident in this run.

How are you guys watching the models before they come out?

[ROCK]

The trough is clearly evident in this run.

How are you guys watching the models before they come out?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml


hit refresh a lot......

[Dean4Storms]

I see a weakness stretching all the way from Ike in that run clear across the SE out into the Atlantic, how could Ike miss that trough?

[Windy]

The trough is clearly evident in this run.

How are you guys watching the models before they come out?

GFS is coming out as we speak. Watch it here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/model_l.shtml

or just camp on the open directory here:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/?M=D

[TTheriot1975]

can someone post the link to the gfs?

[Duddy]

The trough is clearly evident in this run.

How are you guys watching the models before they come out?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml


hit refresh a lot......

I'm about to rape my F5 key.

[vaffie]

At 120 hours it is due south of New Orleans (as opposed to the 18Z model) in which it was due south of Mobile. So quite a bit further west this run, and also slightly further south.

Compare:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

[micktooth]

can someone post the link to the gfs?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[Duddy]

Does the GFS run through 126H or 144H?

[ROCK]

I see a weakness stretching all the way from Ike in that run clear across the SE out into the Atlantic, how could Ike miss that trough?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif


trof is shallower not as deep......possibly...

[Weatherfreak000]

Storm is heading towards SELA it seems per the GFS.

[setxweathergal]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_108l.gif


trof leaves Ike behind....

Very ignorant question...but bare with me...in the above image, where is the trof that you're referring to?

[Dean4Storms]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

[ROCK]

I see a weakness stretching all the way from Ike in that run clear across the SE out into the Atlantic, how could Ike miss that trough?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif


trof is shallower not as deep......possibly...

[Dean4Storms]

Well this is one situation where if the trough is just a little steeper than what the GFS is showing this storm turns northward sooner for sure. This could swing back and forth for awhile.

[ROCK]

about to choke on my doughnut....


scratch that Brownsville maybe MX this run......EURO showed something very similar last two runs..

[Dean4Storms]

It takes Ike to Texas!!!

[Windy]

And purely for an idea of the trend, here's 150hr:

[vaffie]

Hang in there Rock. Still too early to choke on your doughnut--give it a couple days. Ridge is not breaking down at 126 hours this time. Ike probably headed for Texas this run.