ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sihara]

Got a question for all you plywood kings. My gma lives 60 miles inland from the coast( near Destin) If this storm hits say panama city or ft walton beach should I go up and plywood her windows? Thanks

if a hurricane watch is issued you should, better you yet you should be a good grandson and buy her accordian shutters

Agree totally. We have the accordions and I love them. If something blows up quick, we just pull 'em shut and lock them. If you go that route, and if you're handy, inquire about installing them yourself. You can save a ton of money and a LOT of time - scheduling installers is why there's usually a waiting list. Just my op.

This Gustav is really quite stressful, with so much uncertainty in the track, the high over FL, a cold front possibly on its way. At what point will it be clearer where Gustav is heading?

[jasons2k]

Just to add we have plenty of prep information in the preparation forum: viewforum.php?f=30

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ignore.

[Annie Oakley]

Could Gustav pose a threat to the MS Gulf Coast down the road?

Let's hope not. BTW, the largest power distribution transformer manufacturer in the US was hit by ICE today and had 350 illegals detained....... not good news if the US gets hit by a major hurricane. Howard Industries (transformer company) built over 100,000 emergency units after Katrina.

That is rather an inflammatory statement and totally off-topic-I hope we continue to see weather-related professionalism here and not so much about football games, gas prices and the like. I guess I better duck now lol......

[KWT]

In the end probably the whole gulf region will have to keep a very close eye on what Gustav does, track may not be quite as tricky as it was for Fay as this one should get further so that when it makes the turn northward eventually whenever that is it should have waters to its north.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ignore.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Does anyone have the verifications on the models this year or where I can find them? It seems that the GFDL did pretty well with Fay. Even though it did have her in the Great Lakes by now (at one point), I think the 3-4 day track was pretty good. Next I'd have to think GFS, just going on recollection. Maybe the Euro too. Anyway, just wondering if maybe one is outperforming so I could keep an eye on it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

"If" it tracks down the middle of the nhc's thinking, in I don't see any reason why it could not. Then I would say that it may have about 24 hours after its short landfall in Hati to become a cane. If it don't, then it will have to wait intil the gulf. If it tracks south inbetween Jamiaca and Cuba it could get very interesting like Dennis 2005. I'm not saying it will get that strong, but it is always possible.

In the end it is all about track.

[deltadog03]

Very deep reds showing on the IR...(the eyewall) What concerns me is that folks we had a complete CLOSED EYE WALL with a TS...(not uncommon obviously) But, lets face it...a 60mph TS a closed eye wall

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If you are in Cuba/Haiti, Get to higher, non-mud-slide ground as soon as
possible so that you don't drown.

If you are in Texas, Louisiana, or Mississippi, you should hope for a
strong cold front to steer this away and turn it further northeast
towards Florida. If you are in Florida, hope it dies over Cuba.


As the next model runs come out, pay very close attention to WHEN
troughs make it to the gulf. THAT will determine WHERE Gustav
goes once in the Gulf. For the next 2 days Haiti and Cuba residents
need to evacuate from flooding and mud-slide regions.


Next 72 hours: Haiti and Cuba will get slammed with heavy
rain and wind. If you are near mud slide zones, get out of
those areas and find SAFER GROUND!!!!! THIS IS THE ONLY
WAY TO PREVENT MUD-SLIDE FLOOD DEATH!


GULF THREAT:
It all will depend on the trough-front.

If the front/trough is over the central gulf days 4/5, then
it will turn towards the central GOM, putting Louisiana
and Mississippi in the path. <-- Let us pray that this does not happen
for those recovering from Katrina/Rita.

If there is NO front/trough,
then Mexico is where it would go.

If there is NO trough until
Texas, then Texas is where it goes.

If there is a potent cold
front digging into the gulf by days 4/5, Gustav will likely turn
north or even northeast into the northeast gulf, from
the florida panhandle to the west coast, including the greater
Tampa Bay Area.

[RL3AO]

Very deep reds showing on the IR...(the eyewall) What concerns me is that folks we had a complete CLOSED EYE WALL with a TS...(not uncommon obviously) But, lets face it...a 60mph TS a closed eye wall

Everything is there for very quick intensification tonight.

[KWT]

Well Matt the only thing that makes me question the NHC track is the models are still to the south of it, would expect further small shifts to the south over the next couple of advisories if the models stick where they are.

Delta, yep those deep returns are coming back though its also true that most of the deep convection is on the southern side of the circulation. Still I do suspect we are seeing strengthening still. The thing that may stop any fast strengthening is the northern side looking less impressive.

[sphelps8681]

As the next model runs come out, pay very close attention to WHEN
troughs make it to the gulf. THAT will determine WHERE Gustav
goes once in the Gulf. For the next 2 days Haiti and Cuba residents
need to evacuate from flooding and mud-slide regions.

When should we expect the next model runs?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Very deep reds showing on the IR...(the eyewall) What concerns me is that folks we had a complete CLOSED EYE WALL with a TS...(not uncommon obviously) But, lets face it...a 60mph TS a closed eye wall

Everything is there for very quick intensification tonight.

There is two limits with this

1# Time before land
2# down slope off the Hati/DR mountains.

Besides that maybe a little "shear" on the northwestern quad.

[jasons2k]

This is a warning: let's stop the repetitive posts of the same information over and over again. Many are guilty of this.

Drop the name debate.
Drop the moral arguments over loss of life vs. weekend plans.
And drop the debates over ICE raids, etc.

As you can tell, patience is running thin after seeing this thread spiral out-of-control all day long.

Thank you.

[Blown Away]

From the 5pm discussion: Note that there is substantial uncertainty in the 4 and 5 day forecast positions...and one should not focus on these precise points.

I know there is always uncertainty 4-5 days out, but I can't ever recall the NHC using such strong wording. Am I just reading to much into this?

[wxman57]

I see that the 18Z GFDL is very close to my track over the western tip of Cuba Friday evening and into the SE Gulf, turning north between 86-88W. Looks reasonable as that ridge may hold in north of Gustav until Friday afternoon. NHC should be shifting its track south of Cuba tonight and trending toward a similar track farther west and a good bit faster.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If I had to make a guest about current strength. I would say 60 knots. That is a nice cdo forming there, with the eye redeveloping. A little messy on the northern side.

[O Town]

As the next model runs come out, pay very close attention to WHEN
troughs make it to the gulf. THAT will determine WHERE Gustav
goes once in the Gulf. For the next 2 days Haiti and Cuba residents
need to evacuate from flooding and mud-slide regions.

When should we expect the next model runs?

00z.........8pm
06z.........2am
12z.........8am
18z.........2pm

[Blown Away]

Very deep reds showing on the IR...(the eyewall) What concerns me is that folks we had a complete CLOSED EYE WALL with a TS...(not uncommon obviously) But, lets face it...a 60mph TS a closed eye wall

If Gustav rapidly intensifies/deepens more than predicted, will that have a major effect on the track?