ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[txag2005]

Is it still showing improvement?

[HURAKAN]

8 P.M. EDT 08/13/2008 Atlantic Ocean Tropical Outlook

The disturbance a couple of hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles gained convection during the day. Conditions are reasonable favorable and this system could become a tropical depression over the next two days.

The tropical wave near 35W has lost most of its organization. This system is currently not expected to develop within the next 36 hours.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Forecaster: Judt

Link: http://www.nwhhc.com/gpage1.html

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE
EXTENDS FROM 21N57W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N59W TO 9N60W. THE
WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-59W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION STILL EXISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

My thoughts in relation to Florida:

The chance of a tropical system impacting Florida is about the same if not slightly heightened from yesterday. If the system does impact Florida it should be between Monday and Wednesday of next week unless its speed changes. At this point, it looks like there will be a curve to the north is this systems path after a possible landfall in Southern Florida. Where that curve takes place has yet to be seen, but it will likely take place either just west or east of Florida, or quite possibly right up the spine of the state. Of course if this system takes a late curve at the right time, those on the west coast may have another story entirely. This system is still organizing, and is not yet a Tropical Depression. Intensification is not occurring, and cannot occur until a few organizational items are taken care of. Over the last 24 hours, the only mentionable change with this system is its location. Again, my first complete (amateur) forecast will be done when a Tropical Depression declared.

[txag2005]

Wow, the latest NHC statements make it seem like the chance of development is very low at best over the next 2-3 days. Definitely a different tune than what has been witnessed on here for the past few hours.

[jlauderdal]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE
EXTENDS FROM 21N57W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N59W TO 9N60W. THE
WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-59W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION STILL EXISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

executive summary: hurry up and wait

[rockyman]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the final visible loop of the day (I like to use "rock" mode), I see 2 things that I didn't see at this time yesterday: 1) pronounced low-level turning which is partially obscured by convection on the east side and 2) outflow becoming established on the western side. These 2 developments, together with heavy convection popping again this evening leads me to believe that the system is continuing to organize slowly. It seems to be "getting the fundamentals" together (low level spin/upper-level divergence). With these fundamentals established, the system (IMHO) has a good chance of becoming a depression in the 24-48 hour time frame.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 132358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRESENTLY LIMITED AND DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH OR JUST NORTH
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Derek Ortt]

NHC in agreement with us

chances of developing most certainly increasing

[ekal]

Does NHC still have a low-level invest tasked for later tonight? I looked at the TCPOD, but three of those flights have been scrubbed since it was issued. Thanks.

[fci]

Speaking of the first day of school coming up in FL, I remember school was supposed to start here in Palm Beach County the morning Andrew hit in '92. My first day of junior year got delayed by a day, and then the storm turned out to be not much of anything for northern PBC where I live. I went to the beach a little after first light and the thing that struck me was all the helicopters flying south overhead. They were on their way to film/check out the real devastation much farther south. (And no, I am not saying this storm will be Andrew ... just sharing a first day of school recollection prompted by an earlier post.)

they moved the school calendars back two weeks last year in part because of Andrew and Charlie and their impact on school schedules...Charlie came during the end of the first week of school (opening night of the Olympics as well)

Quick jaunt off topic but the calendar was moved back because the Legislature required starting no earlier than 2 weeks before Labor Day. School was starting SO early, 2nd week of August that there was an outcry that the Legislature reacted to.
I do not believe that Hurricane Season had anything to do with it.

Sorry for the departure from 92L.

[RL3AO]

Does NHC still have a low-level invest tasked for later tonight? I looked at the TCPOD, but three of those flights have been scrubbed since it was issued. Thanks.

I think there is a NOAA P3 flight scheduled for tonight.

[KWT]

It'd be ironic that just as it starts to look real good it'll go over one of the major islands and die

Still as long as it stays away from those islands eventually its going to get better conditions then presently.

[stormchazer]

NHC in agreement with us

chances of developing most certainly increasing

You are suppose to be voice of reason and pessimism. Do you see indication now that 92L may have turned the corner to possible developing?

[Derek Ortt]

yep... increased inflow

[CronkPSU]

NHC in agreement with us

chances of developing most certainly increasing

You are suppose to be voice of reason and pessimism. Do you see indication now that 92L may have turned the corner to possible developing?

yeah I was not expecting Derek to say that either...must have missed that post earlier, I was fully expecting him to come on and say not to worry because this thing isn't likely to intensify anytime soon (and he was dead on so far)

[Ivanhater]

NHC in agreement with us

chances of developing most certainly increasing

Lol at first I thought you made a typo and meant decreasing

[RL3AO]

NHC kept it orange.

[cycloneye]

NHC kept it orange.

It has been a while that you dont post your table for the TWOS.

[JPmia]

Invest 92L already being mentioned on local 10 news here

when they have max mayfield on ten doing hourly updates that is when i get concerned about it or better yet when he shows a pic of his house with shutters up then i get really concerned

Agreed! we should have a webcam on his house during hurricane season! most media outlets down here have mentioned it in their newscasts tonight as an area to watch...Channel 6 says it is going to the Northern Carib...guess he didn't look at those models.