ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[cycloneye]

Incredible that the 00z GFS has in 72 hours the same area Gustav made landfall.Those people in Pinar del Rio haved no recuperated from the Gustav landfall.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[ROCK]

quote="setxweathergal"]

But even on Gus, weren't there some models that always showed NOLA area? Or was that further down the road and not this far out? How far out did NHC have it nailed?

If you want to analyze the forecasts and how the models did with Gustav, you can do so here:
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark7/

Thanks...but I wouldn't even pretend to know how to read all of that. I was just trying to figure out if there was one model more reliable to fixate on, and that doesn't shift as much as the others.[/quote]

None of the models are really all that consistent or right all the time. The GFDL jumps around a LOT, as does the GFS. The EURO jumps around less, but it can be wrong a lot too. Generally, I've found that if you take the average of the GFDL, the GFS, and the EURO, you get a very accurate track--and that's basically what the National Hurricane Center does--it uses a lot of consensus tracks in it's analyses.[/quote]


Heres what I do...CMC for possible TC formation....EURO , GFDL for track. In that order....probably over simplying somewhat.....

[Sanibel]

The GFDL jumps around a LOT, as does the GFS

It tends to react immediately to present features like a trough that isn't near to the hurricane but is near to the tail end of GFDL's current track. You have to learn GFDL's tendencies which is why I was saying it was locked on to the SW dips this year and nailed them well ahead of everything else. GFDL was so precisely accurate in advance of these SW tracks that, even though it is a computer model, I feel it deserves better.

[vaffie]

No change in GFS position at 72 hours so far. Ridge looks the same too.

Compare:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

[ROCK]

Incredible that the 00z GFS has in 72 hours the same area Gustav made landfall.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

man that would really wipe out that portion of Cuba if that verified....The Isle of Youth would be hammered once again....now if this goes into Central LA then I am going to choke on my doughnut.....

[mattpetre]

With me being an amature, how do you guys think my forecasting is, I'm just curious what your oppinion is I've been posting my hypothesis and seem to get no positive or negative feed backs?

Seems to me that you have pretty good knowledge of the dynamics and synoptics and are relatively conservative with your prognosis. All things that it takes to be a good and trusted forecaster. Myself on the other hand like to be a bit more wild and gambling on such things. Perhaps this should continue in a personal forecast thread however...

On the topic of models... seems to me like track is much more unknown than intensity in this particular case. That's rather unusual, huh?

[PTrackerLA]

Why does this all seem so familiar?!

[Windy]

90 hours:

[shah8]

Actually, here are the cities drastically affected by Ike, potentially...

Camaguey
Holguin
Nuevitas
Cienfuegos
Pinar Del Rio

the eastern part of Cuba is not all that lightly populated, you know...

[jinftl]

Where is the forecast and analysis? This thread is primarily to discuss the computer models so maybe this isn't going to be the most effective place to put it...maybe share your ideas in the other Ike discussion thread. There is so much going on, don't take a lack of response to your forecast as anything negative....things move very fast at times like this here.

With me being an amature, how do you guys think my forecasting is, I'm just curious what your oppinion is I've been posting my hypothesis and seem to get no positive or negative feed backs?

[vaffie]

Moving faster and further west in this run so far. Also a tad south.

[Bellarose]

90 hours:

Is that a little more to the east than it has been? It seems to be closer to FL to me, but I'm blurry eyed and tired.

[vaffie]

90 hours:

Is that a little more to the east than it has been? It seems to be closer to FL to me, but I'm blurry eyed and tired.

It's further west and slightly south.

[PTPatrick]

actually is almost identical to the 18z in speed and location

[ROCK]

Moving faster and further west in this run so far. Also a tad south.

misses that shortwave then west....pick it up then NNE......

[gatorcane]

if the US is lucky Ike stays south and is a Mexico issue.

Sounds impossible but who knows. Ike certainly keeps making these models shift west.

[Bellarose]

Thanks everyone. That will help me sleep a little better tonite!

[Weatherfreak000]

The trough is clearly evident in this run.

[cycloneye]

108 hours in central GOM.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif


trof leaves Ike behind....