ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[lonelymike]

Got a question for all you plywood kings. My gma lives 60 miles inland from the coast( near Destin) If this storm hits say panama city or ft walton beach should I go up and plywood her windows? Thanks

[srainhoutx]

this question was posed earlier......

why did the crew climb up to 650mb?

Because they started flying the storm at 1000ft (invest) and soon realized the strength... they climbed up to 2500ft and that's where they received the 65kt gust..... for safety reasons they flew at 700mb.... the 650mb was recorded because they were climbing back to normal flight altitude to come back to Homestead for a routine problem.

Thanks for the update pojo. I always enjoy reading your "expert discussion" concerning RECON and I know many learn a great deal from an "operational standpoint". Thanks for your service.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Significant Gulf of Mexico Threat Likely:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_07.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

Call me insane, but I think the NOGAPS is right this time. In fact, Bermuda should be on the watch for a hurricane. I am very concerned for the island right now.

Why? The nogaps has been totally out of it throughout this ones life, even as an invest. Besides, the high looks to be strong enough to support a westward turn.

[KWT]

Matt I'm talking about Fay's second stay over Florida where it spent around 60hrs over Florida whilst only weakening slowly.

EJ...if its to take Nogaps track it needs to bend north pretty much now, current motion still looks close to 310 to me, maybe even slightly west of that now though with the center under convection that can only be a very rough estimate.

[LSU2001]

Got a question for all you plywood kings. My gma lives 60 miles inland from the coast( near Destin) If this storm hits say panama city or ft walton beach should I go up and plywood her windows? Thanks

Depends on the overall strength of the system. In Baton Rouge La. (about 100 miles inland) during Katrina we got 50-60 mph winds while I did not board up I probably should have.
Tim

[jlauderdal]

Got a question for all you plywood kings. My gma lives 60 miles inland from the coast( near Destin) If this storm hits say panama city or ft walton beach should I go up and plywood her windows? Thanks

if a hurricane watch is issued you should, better you yet you should be a good grandson and buy her accordian shutters

[Sanibel]

Those center convection spots could be a sign of strengthening. I assume no data has been gotten for hours from this so it could be stronger already.

They have the track pegged pretty good, but tracks have gone off before, and realize what is downrange here.

[canegrl04]

The models don't have a clue right now where Gustav is headed

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The models don't have a clue right now where Gustav is headed

The reliable ones- GFDL/HWRF take this into the southeast gulf.
Throw out the other ones, the Bams fail to sense Fay's northerly
pull, and NOGAPS is too aggressive going north.

[Stephanie]

The models don't have a clue right now where Gustav is headed

They never will have an "exact landfalling" point either. Models never have. They offer guidance, that's all.

With that said, the consensus looks like it will go through Cuba and into the GOM as of this model run.

[Blown Away]

What does Accuweather see that everybody else does not?? Showing a landfall in SFL is pretty bold.

[Sanibel]

NOGAPS is already disproven. It's well past NOGAPS' N track already.

[TideJoe]

Could Gustav pose a threat to the MS Gulf Coast down the road?

Let's hope not. BTW, the largest power distribution transformer manufacturer in the US was hit by ICE today and had 350 illegals detained....... not good news if the US gets hit by a major hurricane. Howard Industries (transformer company) built over 100,000 emergency units after Katrina.

[Recurve]

Quick recap for newbies and anyone interested:

Where will it go?
Too soon to tell. First concern is Hispaniola, then Cuba, Jamaica. Possibly Florida, Mexico and the entire Gulf coast.

Where does the NHC say it will go?
See http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Even the experts are expressing uncertainty because the computer models right now have a large spread.

Will it become a hurricane?
NHC thinks so, before it hits Cuba, or thereabouts.

Where did the name come from?
There's disagreement among proponents of Sweden, Germany, France, Mexico, and other places.

Are you scared?
Less so than with Fay, but that's just me.

Should I fill my gas tank?
Yes. I own stock in Exxon.

Hold me?
Maybe later.

What is layer-mean wind analysis showing?
The storm will likely track westward or northwestward, possibly into a weakness in the ridge, bringing it over Cuba and into the Straits of Florida or Gulf, or more directly westerly toward the Yucatan in the near term.

When is recon flying into the storm?
Recon was there and had to come back because of equipment trouble.

[stormchazer]

The models don't have a clue right now where Gustav is headed

You said it canegrl04! Thats why they look like a blooming flower, cause they got no blooming idea where it is going. My brother in-law asked today if I thought it was headed to MS. and I said yes. My dad asked if I thought it would head to Florida and I said yes. Why, because like everyone else, I have no clue.

Seriously though, we all watch a zillion storms and we know that it takes time once a storm is classified to get good data in the models and start thinking track. We have a long few days ahead and plenty of time for Gustav to reveal itself.

[Stephanie]

Blown away - the spaghetti models above are showing a close call to south Florida with two taking him right into her. I don't think that AccuWeather is being "bold". Besides, look at the cone - almost all of the models are within it.

[capepoint]

lol Recurve. Thats informative and still too funny.

[Max_Power]

The models don't have a clue right now where Gustav is headed

Looking at the spread between NGPS and BAMD, at least one of the models has to be correct.

[KWT]

Looking at the IR it does seem like Gustav's northern side is getting somewhat hampered by Hispaniola however theres still some pretty good convection close to the center.