ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

Very high shear, which basically decapitates any LLC.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah fair enough, as you've been saying there looks likely be too much shear for anything to form, still it doesn't look quite so extreme for the western Caribbean as you say and we may have a window there IMO.

Why in the world do these pro mets think this storm will die in the Caribbean? It seems that the waters are plenty warm there and could very well provide the fuel this system.

yeah but theres 40kts of shear to its nw. should it stay south of there, it will remain in 15-20kt shear, which would still inhibit development.

[Cryomaniac]

If it does,this has got to set the record for longest lasting invest before upgrade Hopefully it upgrades before we get to 100 threads

It's got to be pretty close to that.

[RL3AO]

Yeah fair enough, as you've been saying there looks likely be too much shear for anything to form, still it doesn't look quite so extreme for the western Caribbean as you say and we may have a window there IMO.

Why in the world do these pro mets think this storm will die in the Caribbean? It seems that the waters are plenty warm there and could very well provide the fuel this system.

Water temps are overrated. Shear is the main decider of what a system will do.

[Bane]

At this point, I am just ready for 94L to die! It keeps going on this up and down roller coaster and we end up getting nowhere in the end. Every time it looks good it winds up fizzling and every time it looks bad it winds up exploding. This process has gotten pretty boring to watch after the last 3-4 days...

Every year there is at least one of these storms... hopefully this is it for this year.

I hope there are more crazy ones! I love it when the forecasters get all confused and us amateurs can sit back and just laugh and laugh and laugh at them. Of course it happens every season but I think the storms are going to act extra funny this season like they did in 2005. This season should be a lot like 2005 if this July is any indication of future activity.

yeah, nothing like laughing at those who are trying to give us an accurate forecast. that's funny stuff, right there.

[KWT]

Exactly shear is far more important factor in the Caribbean where the waters are warm enough for tropical development regardless of the time of year usually.

If it can remain in the weaker shear then whilst it probably wont develop it may stil lbe able to keep as a sharp trough and if it does reach lower shear levels in the western CAribbean then we could well see it try and develop again.

[tomdrewls]

Yeah fair enough, as you've been saying there looks likely be too much shear for anything to form, still it doesn't look quite so extreme for the western Caribbean as you say and we may have a window there IMO.

Why in the world do these pro mets think this storm will die in the Caribbean? It seems that the waters are plenty warm there and could very well provide the fuel this system.

yeah but theres 40kts of shear to its nw. should it stay south of there, it will remain in 15-20kt shear, which would still inhibit development.

I thought there have been systems recently that did just fine despite high shear? Hmmm... Maybe those were storms that had already formed though.

[HURAKAN]

Ana in 2003 did pretty good, but she was moving with the shear, not against the shear. Is like if you have a wall chasing you but you move at the speed or faster than the wall in the same direction, nothing will happen. But if you move against the wall, you will collide with the wall.

[tomdrewls]

NHC is giving it a 'high' probability (50%+), of TC formation in the next 48 hours....

If it does,this has got to set the record for longest lasting invest before upgrade Hopefully it upgrades before we get to 100 threads

The only reason there would be a lot of threads is because they only let you see a few entries at a time - talk about annoying!!

[senorpepr]

Where is the official NHC forecast?

a graph showing the model intensities was posted earlier in a link, and there was a line that said nhc, strengthening it to 40kt, then maintaining. and on the home page of s2k, theres a model page, and it shows the nhc track in white, going into honduras/nicaragua

Below is the track from the 18Z OFCI (the interpolated NHC forecast from 12Z).
For intensity: currently 30KT. 34kt by 17/06Z, 39kt by 17/18Z, and 42kt by 18/06Z and through the rest of the forecast period.




Of course, this isn't a hard forecast like you'd see in an advisory, especially with the status of 94L in limbo.

[RL3AO]

I thought there have been systems recently that did just fine despite high shear? Hmmm... Maybe those were storms that had already formed though.

A well developed system (hurricane) can usually hold off shear for a little bit. A developing system cannot. Anything over 15 knots and it doesn't have much chance for form. The Central Caribbean is near 40kts. A hurricane can form in 26C water if there is no shear. A hurricane won't form in 32C water with 25 kts of shear.

In this case, the lower level winds are moving very fast while the upper level winds are not. That creates the shear. In the case of Dean last year, the lower level winds were pretty strong from the east, but so were the middle and upper levels. So it didn't actually feel any shear. Thats not the case here.

[KWT]

Very interesting senorpepr I didn't know that the NHC did forecast tracks and strengths for invests as well but then again it makes sense otherwise how would recon know where abouts to look without that sort of guidence.
That track may just be far enough to the south to keep it away from the worst of the shear.

[skysummit]

Ok....I don't post here much any longer, however I have to ask, where is all this shear I keep hearing about that's supposed to be in the Eastern Caribbean?

From the 18z GFS:

200mb H +24
250mb H + 24

[deltadog03]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

There is your mid level shear for you...

[RL3AO]

Ok....I don't post here much any longer, however I have to ask, where is all this shear I keep hearing about that's supposed to be in the Eastern Caribbean?

From the 18z GFS:

200mb H +24
250mb H + 24

Its in the lower levels (850mb).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_850_024m.gif

[KWT]

The shear is at lower levels:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036m.gif

Note though that it remains lower closer to S.A which is probably the best chance for 94L.

[skysummit]

Ok....I don't post here much any longer, however I have to ask, where is all this shear I keep hearing about that's supposed to be in the Eastern Caribbean?

From the 18z GFS:

200mb H +24
250mb H + 24

Its in the lower levels (850mb).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_850_024m.gif

Gotcha....thanks. I was paying more attention to the upper layers.

[Innotech]

whether this storm forms or not, its not even worth worrying about damage or danger from it. Just a bit of wind and rain. I could see it being an issue with a major hurricane thread or something, but this thing is still barely an invest. Definitely over the top to regulate this particular thread much.

[cycloneye]

WONT41 KNHC 162152
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
600 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST COMPLETED
ITS MISSION IN THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION...
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LACKS A SINGLE WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SYSTEM IS NOT BEING CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.

REGARDLESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[RL3AO]

Better luck next time 94L.