ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[superfly]

Ike to SE LA would be a disaster, many people would not/can not evac again.

[Sabanic]

This westward shift just makes the timing of the NW-N turn more creepy. When and where will it occur??

[ROCK]

When is the next gfdl out? I'm interested to see its consistency. Starting to get a tinge of long range worry here in Houston.

The Gulfstream data was incorporated as far as I know. The 0Z GFS should start coming out in the next 25 minutes. The 0Z GFDL comes out around 12:40 am central time, the 0Z UKMET/NOGAPS/CMC come out around 12:55 am, the 0Z HWRF comes out around 1:05 am, the EURO around 2:45 am. I think that covers the important ones.

EURO 2:20am our time.....but I am not staying up for that run....ugh

[meteorologyman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

It looks like my worst case scenario # 2 is close to panning out that I mentioned 1 to 3 days ago.

Scenario # 2 Ike continues moving SW not able to get ahead of the high pres, hitting NW haiti then finally get ahead of high pressure it between Cuba and Jamaica, then moves into NW Cuba into the Gulf... not sure how or where the front will be at this time but then every1 in the Gulf would have to watch

The front still appears to be there and Ike is expected to slow down in Gulf so now attention goes to Texas through W FL. now LA you're in the middle of cone so it could change in time, unforunately that was not the case with Gustav. So I think the higest threat is between LA and FL, I think the front will keep it away from Texas but I could be wrong

[setxweathergal]

But even on Gus, weren't there some models that always showed NOLA area? Or was that further down the road and not this far out? How far out did NHC have it nailed?

[vaffie]

But even on Gus, weren't there some models that always showed NOLA area? Or was that further down the road and not this far out? How far out did NHC have it nailed?

If you want to analyze the forecasts and how the models did with Gustav, you can do so here:
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark7/

[Stratosphere747]

Information about what the Euro shows will start trickling out by 1 cst or so.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 42 hours is just south of Cuba.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[ROCK]

0z GFS coming in....

42hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif


Luis you can post the GFS run......if you want to...

[meteorologyman]

But even on Gus, weren't there some models that always showed NOLA area? Or was that further down the road and not this far out? How far out did NHC have it nailed?

nhc was pretty close with in time, though at first I tink they were looking at near LA/TX border but with in 5 days before landfall it was NOLA, but this time there is a front, weak ridge, and a front so I think this cone will be switching quite a few times, where GUstav only had a High in the north and nothing else....Oh and dry air

[ROCK]

Information about what the Euro shows will start trickling out by 1 cst or so.

shhhhh...

[setxweathergal]

But even on Gus, weren't there some models that always showed NOLA area? Or was that further down the road and not this far out? How far out did NHC have it nailed?

If you want to analyze the forecasts and how the models did with Gustav, you can do so here:
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark7/

Thanks...but I wouldn't even pretend to know how to read all of that. I was just trying to figure out if there was one model more reliable to fixate on, and that doesn't shift as much as the others.

[vaffie]

00z GFS at 42 hours is just south of Cuba.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

It appears that the Bermuda High is slightly stronger at the beginning--perhaps the Gulfstream data found that.

[setxweathergal]

But even on Gus, weren't there some models that always showed NOLA area? Or was that further down the road and not this far out? How far out did NHC have it nailed?

nhc was pretty close with in time, though at first I tink they were looking at near LA/TX border but with in 5 days before landfall it was NOLA, but this time there is a front, weak ridge, and a front so I think this cone will be switching quite a few times, where GUstav only had a High in the north and nothing else....Oh and dry air

That's what I was thinking. Thank you.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 54 hours is in NW Caribbean Sea.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[Windy]

54hr

[meteorologyman]

With me being an amature, how do you guys think my forecasting is, I'm just curious what your oppinion is I've been posting my hypothesis and seem to get no positive or negative feed backs?

[vaffie]

But even on Gus, weren't there some models that always showed NOLA area? Or was that further down the road and not this far out? How far out did NHC have it nailed?

If you want to analyze the forecasts and how the models did with Gustav, you can do so here:
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark7/

Thanks...but I wouldn't even pretend to know how to read all of that. I was just trying to figure out if there was one model more reliable to fixate on, and that doesn't shift as much as the others.

None of the models are really all that consistent or right all the time. The GFDL jumps around a LOT, as does the GFS. The EURO jumps around less, but it can be wrong a lot too. Generally, I've found that if you take the average of the GFDL, the GFS, and the EURO, you get a very accurate track--and that's basically what the National Hurricane Center does--it uses a lot of consensus tracks in it's analyses.

[mattpetre]

But even on Gus, weren't there some models that always showed NOLA area? Or was that further down the road and not this far out? How far out did NHC have it nailed?

If you want to analyze the forecasts and how the models did with Gustav, you can do so here:
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark7/

Man o man, I started having some weird flashbacks looking at those archived models... Not sure if I'm ready for another couple of weeks of model watching. I'm going to stick with my original track (for better or worse).

Oh, who am I kidding I'll be on here day and night waiting for the latest info. Thank you Storm2K for a wonderful place to deal with my neurosis, and thank you for providing information that tends to be on the major television outlets sometimes 6 to 12 hours later. But those guys sure are good at standing in 60 mph winds. Guy on the radio put it well the other day. When people report on wars we don't expect them to stand on the front lines and describe the bullets going by and when there's a building burning in the city we don't expect the reporter to be in it. I just think the major media outlets should think about showing more about how their reporters are being very careful and safe. (sorry for my O.T. drift there.)

[Stratosphere747]