ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Thunder44]

Westward winds in two locations.

There is a third area in the between on there that reported westerly winds too. It looks this system has multiple centers.

[cycloneye]

At this point, I am just ready for 94L to die! It keeps going on this up and down roller coaster and we end up getting nowhere in the end. Every time it looks good it winds up fizzling and every time it looks bad it winds up exploding. This process has gotten pretty boring to watch after the last 3-4 days...

Its only Mid July!

[Just Joshing You]

Where is the official NHC forecast?

[RL3AO]

12z T+48 850mb winds = 40kt south of Hispinola. 300mb winds of 5-10kt in the same place. That = 30+ kts of shear. Not good for 94Ls sake.

[RL3AO]

Where is the official NHC forecast?

There isn't one because its not a tropical cyclone.

[wxman57]

Bones has a statement:

[Cryomaniac]

This post is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any information, meteorological, economic or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose.

I think this might get upgraded at 11pm. I can't see it lasting very long though.

[KWT]

We've not had a vortex though so whilst we probably are close without a vortex message from recon we have no closed low...yet!
Still we shall see, if the estiamted 20-25kts of shear hits this system it won't have much of a chance at its current organisation of surviving in the long term, though if it does get a window in the western Caribbean who knows!

[tomdrewls]

There is a third area in the between on there that reported westerly winds too. It looks this system has multiple centers.

Sweet then we could get "c" and "d" named.

LOL! That would be so funny. Three tropical storms all stuck together. :-D

[texbosoxfan]

NHC is giving it a 'high' probability (50%+), of TC formation in the next 48 hours....

[KWT]

Haha wxman57 so does that you mean you still think it has a chance

[srainhoutx]

Bones has a statement:

Good one wxman57. Looks like along week ahead.

[cheezyWXguy]

Where is the official NHC forecast?

a graph showing the model intensities was posted earlier in a link, and there was a line that said nhc, strengthening it to 40kt, then maintaining. and on the home page of s2k, theres a model page, and it shows the nhc track in white, going into honduras/nicaragua

[Brent]

At this point, I am just ready for 94L to die! It keeps going on this up and down roller coaster and we end up getting nowhere in the end. Every time it looks good it winds up fizzling and every time it looks bad it winds up exploding. This process has gotten pretty boring to watch after the last 3-4 days...

Every year there is at least one of these storms... hopefully this is it for this year.

[wxman57]

Haha wxman57 so does that you mean you still think it has a chance

I think we may have just seen any chance of an upgrade slip by. I do think it was a TD Mon-Tue, but it was a bit lacking in convection. Low-level winds in the Caribbean look a bit strong for development. Maybe a chance of something in the western Caribbean Sunday.

[Cryomaniac]

Every year there is at least one of these storms... hopefully this is it for this year.

It does seem to happen fairly often. Of course, last year there was that business with Erin as well...

[tomdrewls]

At this point, I am just ready for 94L to die! It keeps going on this up and down roller coaster and we end up getting nowhere in the end. Every time it looks good it winds up fizzling and every time it looks bad it winds up exploding. This process has gotten pretty boring to watch after the last 3-4 days...

Every year there is at least one of these storms... hopefully this is it for this year.

I hope there are more crazy ones! I love it when the forecasters get all confused and us amateurs can sit back and just laugh and laugh and laugh at them. Of course it happens every season but I think the storms are going to act extra funny this season like they did in 2005. This season should be a lot like 2005 if this July is any indication of future activity.

[KWT]

Yeah fair enough, as you've been saying there looks likely be too much shear for anything to form, still it doesn't look quite so extreme for the western Caribbean as you say and we may have a window there IMO.

[canegrl04]

NHC is giving it a 'high' probability (50%+), of TC formation in the next 48 hours....

If it does,this has got to set the record for longest lasting invest before upgrade Hopefully it upgrades before we get to 100 threads

[tomdrewls]

Yeah fair enough, as you've been saying there looks likely be too much shear for anything to form, still it doesn't look quite so extreme for the western Caribbean as you say and we may have a window there IMO.

Why in the world do these pro mets think this storm will die in the Caribbean? It seems that the waters are plenty warm there and could very well provide the fuel this system.