ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

oh..

interesting ...

This is what I can do.

Original:


Retouched: (Brightness increased to 150 in Contrast)


See the difference.

sweet but it took awhile huh?

[Aric Dunn]

The outflow is probably the key story of today for 92L. As members have mentioned, it has improved tremendously throughout the day. If you look at this loop, you can see the "fanning" of the high clouds going around in a clockwise direction around the blob. That is a sign an anticyclone is building over the system.

Just looking for the next convection burst near the "LLC" wherever that may be and some gradual organization could be underway -- slow and steady for the next 48 hours though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

better loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

lighten this one up ... i wan to see that burst..


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/280.jpg

[gatorcane]

Does a pro met want to comment about the symmetric outflow we are mentioning above -- seems it is much more pronounced now then it has ever been

Thx

[KWT]

Yeah true it does look better in terms of convection though it didn't completely die off till another 2-3hrs time this time yesterday so best compare what they look like then. I think in terms of structure it has improved.

I also think that any LLC further west would be in deep trouble as everything I see suggests a new circulation will likely form within the next 24hrs in that deeper convection.

[HURAKAN]

The outflow or fanning of the clouds is in fact due to Dr. Phil.

92L was dying and Dr. Phil said to it "you need to breathe a little more."

j/k

It's true that the outflow was not present yesterday. It may be a sign that conditions are becoming more conducive for development.

[OuterBanker]

OK JB fans. Well, he thinks this will bust the 8 man front of shear. If it stays north of Hisp then it will be a problem from Fla to NC (personally, I think he has it in for NC this year). Actually, I think he thinks it will hit Fl and head north. Not sure if any model does this though.

[Bocadude85]

Invest 92L already being mentioned on local 10 news here

[SouthFloridawx]

I think we are going to start seeing some definite strengthening this evening. This is looking like maybe we might be seeing some good outflow from the convection there. Also I think that we might end up seeing a circulation under the convective mass.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[HURAKAN]

sweet but it took awhile huh?

I use Firefox and my RAM has 2 gigabytes. It takes a little time.

[wxman57]

Any low pressure center is still 150+ miles west of that convective burst, so there can be no outflow on the "west side". There is some westerly-moving cirrus outflow well east of the low pressure area. That's about it. It's no better organized than this morning. In fact, it may be less organized than this morning. There is no low center forming anywhere near that convection. Here's a 21Z surface plot with a satellite overlay. The area of low pressure is circled in red, with the approximate center of lower pressure at the crosshairs. This is in line with the NHC initialization of the center at 18z (extrapolated to 21Z). It's a long, long way away from becoming a TD.

[OuterBanker]

BTW, that's my opinion on what he's saying, not a direct quote (which would be a copyright infringement). I am wrong quite often (just ask my wife).

[cheezyWXguy]

Any low pressure center is still 150+ miles west of that convective burst, so there can be no outflow on the "west side". There is some westerly-moving cirrus outflow well east of the low pressure area. That's about it. It's no better organized than this morning. In fact, it may be less organized than this morning. There is no low center forming anywhere near that convection. Here's a 21Z surface plot with a satellite overlay. The area of low pressure is circled in red, with the approximate center of lower pressure at the crosshairs. This is in line with the NHC initialization of the center at 18z (extrapolated to 21Z). It's a long, long way away from becoming a TD.

Im sorry wxman, but I see absolutely nothing in that area. Who knows? There could be no "center" at all. But really,I do think that in the next 24 hours we could see a center begin to form under the deep convection as long is it persists, as it is doing now. There are some reds in that tiny new burst everyone is going nuts over.

[BensonTCwatcher]

some things we did not have last night either

convergence improving or measureable inflow http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

Divergencge over the system i.e. outflow http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dvg.html

Also the TUTT looks to be cutting off as the northermost ULL moves E and the one over Hisp. moves W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

I'll let 'er cook a while see what we get later tonight and tom. morning prove interesting

[Aric Dunn]

Any low pressure center is still 150+ miles west of that convective burst, so there can be no outflow on the "west side". There is some westerly-moving cirrus outflow well east of the low pressure area. That's about it. It's no better organized than this morning. In fact, it may be less organized than this morning. There is no low center forming anywhere near that convection. Here's a 21Z surface plot with a satellite overlay. The area of low pressure is circled in red, with the approximate center of lower pressure at the crosshairs. This is in line with the NHC initialization of the center at 18z (extrapolated to 21Z). It's a long, long way away from becoming a TD.

agreed that is close but its farther north.. look back at your older image it was farther north .. maybe you just overlooked it a little .. it did not move SW .. but i agree the "low" earlier has continued to head wnw but towards the evening it was really not there anymore and will likely be completly gone and a new weak low will likely take shape somewher in the vicinity of the convection it persists that it..

[KWT]

I agree wxman57 there is no center yet under the convection, I stil lbet that LLC will be gone in about 12hrs time...indeed I doubt its a LLC now to be honest, maybe a sharp trough.
Still think odds are far higher sometying reforms further east in that convection, not yet though clearly...

[OuterBanker]

I'm with Hurrakan. For those that are still with IE. it's time to change to Firefox. Rarely crash, and if you do you can recover where you were and not have to reboot. You will never go back to IE I promise.

[jlauderdal]

Invest 92L already being mentioned on local 10 news here

when they have max mayfield on ten doing hourly updates that is when i get concerned about it or better yet when he shows a pic of his house with shutters up then i get really concerned

[funster]

Any low pressure center is still 150+ miles west of that convective burst, so there can be no outflow on the "west side". There is some westerly-moving cirrus outflow well east of the low pressure area. That's about it. It's no better organized than this morning. In fact, it may be less organized than this morning. There is no low center forming anywhere near that convection. Here's a 21Z surface plot with a satellite overlay. The area of low pressure is circled in red, with the approximate center of lower pressure at the crosshairs. This is in line with the NHC initialization of the center at 18z (extrapolated to 21Z). It's a long, long way away from becoming a TD.

It's probably just like 48 hours away that's not a long, long way away at all.

[jlauderdal]

Did ya have to quote that twice?

no i didnt and shouldnt have and senor took care of it