ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Derek Ortt]

Post deleted

[Bertha08]

I see a 'new' poster, who has probably been here before and banned, and came back with a new IP being banned again.


That is an unofficial prediction, but I'm about 90% sure.

me?

[gboudx]

I see a 'new' poster, who has probably been here before and banned, and came back with a new IP being banned again.


That is an unofficial prediction, but I'm about 90% sure.

me?

No.

[RL3AO]

I see a 'new' poster, who has probably been here before and banned, and came back with a new IP being banned again.


That is an unofficial prediction, but I'm about 90% sure.

me?

No. The mods already deleted the persons posts.

[Bertha08]

Ok cool.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see a 'new' poster, who has probably been here before and banned, and came back with a new IP being banned again.


That is an unofficial prediction, but I'm about 90% sure.

me?

Said poster already neutralized.

[cheezyWXguy]

I see the plane was between 57 and 58ºW. I wish they'd hunt for a center just a shade further East, maybe near 13ºN and 57ºW.

That said, this looks less organized now than a couple of hours ago.

actually, it maybe slightly better organized now...I just looked at the rgb loop, and I see what looks to be the northern side of the llc just outside of the deepest convection, suggesting that the center is inside the reds and deep oranges...If im right and convection persists, i could see td at 11 if not 5. btw, the nhc has an official forecast track out now, but no signs of an upgrade yet...im very unsure of the next 10 minutes...

[HurricaneHunter914]

The 5pm adivsory came out for Bertha, but no TD#3 was there. Looks like no upgrade.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 5pm adivsory came out for Bertha, but no TD#3 was there. Looks like no upgrade.

well if convection increases, then it maybe saved for 11pm

[Bertha08]

The 5pm adivsory came out for Bertha, but no TD#3 was there. Looks like no upgrade.

well if convection increases, then it maybe saved for 11pm

I doubt it, somehow.

[RL3AO]

The 5pm adivsory came out for Bertha, but no TD#3 was there. Looks like no upgrade.

This is far from over and it's very close to being upgraded. It looks like those who said "It's dead Jim" are in for a major shock.

I still doubt this will be a TC any time soon.

[Brent]

It doesn't have to be upgraded now or even today. There is plenty of time over very warm water before hitting land. Latest intensity guidance brings this over 70kts in 96 hours.

I'll believe that when I see it.

I have serious doubts this will ever even get a name.

[KWT]

Problem is with those intensity forecasts is they assume we have a solid closed off low right now and thus strengthen right from the off and also in high sheare set-ups they tend to under-estimate the effects of it on a system I've noticed.

[NDG]

Probably no upgrade because not enough convection near center of circulation, highest winds are away from lowest pressure found.

[RL3AO]

Westward winds in two locations.

[Extremeweatherguy]

At this point, I am just ready for 94L to die! It keeps going on this up and down roller coaster and we end up getting nowhere in the end. Every time it looks good it winds up fizzling and every time it looks bad it winds up exploding. This process has gotten pretty boring to watch after the last 3-4 days...

[cheezyWXguy]

The 5pm adivsory came out for Bertha, but no TD#3 was there. Looks like no upgrade.

This is far from over and it's very close to being upgraded. It looks like those who said "It's dead Jim" are in for a major shock.

I still doubt this will be a TC any time soon.

It seems this thing is about as close as possible to being upgraded without actually being upgraded. Theres an obvious llc, theres convection over it, and the nhc has an official track and intensity forecast out right now...however there is no official advisory out currently. I wouldnt be surprised to see this upgraded either at 11 or tomorrow. I think tomorrow is actually a pretty good possibility, because it is currently moving toward a small pocket of only 5-10kts of shear. However that should be short lasting and shear should gradually increase to 15-20 kts before decreasing in the western caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

At this point, I am just ready for 94L to die! It keeps going on this up and down roller coaster and we end up getting nowhere in the end. Every time it looks good it winds up fizzling and every time it looks bad it winds up exploding. This process has gotten pretty boring to watch after the last 3-4 days...

your not alone extreme! lol..happens every year though

[tomdrewls]

It may not upgrade until the warm Caribbean Sea waters. Then it might spin up real quick! These crazy wet and windy things can go from nothing to super scary in a hurry.

[Noles2006]

It doesn't have to be upgraded now or even today. There is plenty of time over very warm water before hitting land. Latest intensity guidance brings this over 70kts in 96 hours.

It's not going to happen... IMO.