ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[deltadog03]

If, I remember correctly, they did slow it down to some degree, but I don't remember how much. A slower IKE, should put it more towards the EAST on the gom....Would give the trof more time to come down and pick it up.

[jusforsean]

If, I remember correctly, they did slow it down to some degree, but I don't remember how much. A slower IKE, should put it more towards the EAST on the gom....Would give the trof more time to come down and pick it up.

When are we expecting to have this trough answer and will it affect florida or just once it gets into the gom?

[deltadog03]

On the trof answer, maybe a couple of days....

[perk]

I'm definitely not buying a Texas threat with one run of models. And neither should any of you.


Wait to see if any consistency forms here. Calm down....

Yet you are willing to buy a SW LA threat.

[tpr1967]

Deltadog what am seeing at 500mb is a short wave currently in the middle of the country
lifting ne thru the great lakes ne thru 24- 48 hrs. Energy near pacific nw dropping se and east
to the middle of the country by 48 to 72 hrs then lifting ne out fairly quickly. The short wave that picks up Ike latter in the forecast period will be from a piece of energy off the vortex
west of the pacific nw. I'm assuming the weakness created in the east gulf 48 to 72 hrs is the second shortwave i talked about is this correct?

[shah8]

deltadog, Ike missed east by about .35 tenths some at 06-00z for the 12z and 18z GFDL. 18z HWRF is about the same, but 12z HWRF is pretty close.

[Bellarose]

On the trof answer, maybe a couple of days....

That will be excruciating.

[TTheriot1975]

on TWC it seems that trough breaks up over Texas..never makes it all the way down..unless i got it wrong

[jlauderdal]

Its going depend on that trof...period....Models will stuggle since they really struggle with trof's coming out of the west.....

the noaa mission will also help the models resolve the ridging that we have in place

[Storm Contractor]

The one consenus the models all seem to share is that Ike will reintesify quite well once he is thru with his trip to Cuba. Every model I see builds atleast a strong 3 before landfall.

[otowntiger]

I can not believe the difference in the forecast track of this thing from just yesterday morning. Yesterday the models were pretty much at a concensus that this thing would miss FL to the east and now according to many of those models I'm now seeing a very real possibility of a Texas threat! I"m talking about those models that are now bending sharply to the left as they approach the north central gulf. Unbelieveable. What did the models see yesterday that made them indicate such a vastly different path than they see now?? I know the high pressure ridge is apparently what they see building so strongly westward in the current solutions, but what made them see the north movement so much further east just yesterday?

[physicx07]

If, I remember correctly, they did slow it down to some degree, but I don't remember how much. A slower IKE, should put it more towards the EAST on the gom....Would give the trof more time to come down and pick it up.

Unless it's so slow that it ends up being too far south still to get picked up by that trough...not too likely though.

But there are questions as to how strong the trough will be and if it will be strong enough to pick up Ike even if he is all the way up in the central gulf. I don't know if we'll ever have a strong feeling for that until a couple days away.

[tpr1967]

Their is going to be three short waves in the long wave pattern in the next 7to 8 days.
The first one is currently in the middle of the country that will have no effect on Ike.
The 2nd one is currently dropping se and e from the pacific nw. That one is one of the ones
that may weaken the ridge over the eastern gulf. But as of right now does not appear strong enough to pick up Ike. That will be passing by when Ike is south of florida. The third one is one
will be coming off of the upper vortex off the pacific nw coast. Thats the one the models have
picking up Ike 6-8 days out.

[Portastorm]

This may have been posted already and if so, I apologize, but Derek Ortt's latest forecast really has me concerned now! Fellow Texans take not ...

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092008forecast.html

[Stratosphere747]

*long range and always subject to huge shifts*

Looks like they will shift the track further W, and they might even flatten out the heading to imply a movement more towards Texas instead of the NGOM.

[Vortex]

00z NAM shifts further North..Not sure if this is a result of the data entered from recon..Not liking this trend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[rainman]

00z NAM shifts further North..Not sure if this is a result of the data entered from recon..Not liking this trend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

wait and see how the other models come in...nam is not that reliable for tropical systems

[Windy]

Anyone else notice the crazy intensity the 18z GFS forecasts? 145kts? Did someone leave the burner on under the GOMEX or something?

[Bellarose]

Newbie question...When will the rest of the models come in?

[Duddy]

Newbie question...When will the rest of the models come in?

After midnight central.