ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

what is everyone fighting about? we all know this track is going to change again and again

[KWT]

Yeah I think anyone who doesn't think thats a pretty decent shift of the track is clearly missing something. Now whether or not it takes the NHC is another matter we shall have to wait and see!

I suspect the center presently is around 16.3N and 71.1W.

[dwg71]

RL3A0, exactly speeding up will make a difference. The track did shift W, not disputing, but to say that they moved it 180 miles west, imo, is misleading.


It moved west, lets move on.

[ak8s]

Can someone tell me why the TX/LA border is safe from Gustav? These Mexican named storms have me a little gun-shy. Rita, Humberto, Eduoard and now Gustav. If they had named it Geoff or Grady, I don't think I'd be holding my breath right now.

So, all you weather gurus...why isn't the upper TX coast at risk?

[crazycajuncane]

Once it hits the gulf everyone should have basic preps. If not then it's okay you will have 3-4 days to have a good idea if you need food and water or if you need to get the hell out!

[dwg71]

Can someone tell me why the TX/LA border is safe from Gustav? These Mexican named storms have me a little gun-shy. Rita, Humberto, Eduoard and now Gustav. If they had named it Geoff or Grady, I don't think I'd be holding my breath right now.

So, all you weather gurus...why isn't the upper TX coast at risk?

Texas coast IS at risk, but its slight atm. Gustav would move around periphery of HP ridge progged to move over florida into eastern gulf. Cliff's notes answer.

[RL3AO]

Can someone tell me why the TX/LA border is safe from Gustav? These Mexican named storms have me a little gun-shy. Rita, Humberto, Eduoard and now Gustav. If they had named it Geoff or Grady, I don't think I'd be holding my breath right now.

So, all you weather gurus...why isn't the upper TX coast at risk?

Gustav is Swedish.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Gonna get interesting....

first off thanks to whoever posted this link for sat pix
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/
Been on the site regularly but never for sat...great updates and frequency.

So no good recon until after midnight, sun is going down, and the G4 does not sample upper air until tomorrow afternoon....going to be a lot of speculation and thoughts...fun!

meanwhile the hurricane hunters are out on US1 with their boot drive to collect coins for JetA...just kidding...come on up to KMIA or KFLL...the majors are getting it for 4 on wholesale buys....Southwest for 3 cuz they hedged..grin.

ADD satellite page updates every 15 minutes, and has fine display resolution. I used it almost exclusively when Fay was over Florida.

[Tireman4]

Always good to keep your supplies up during this time of year. Cannot hurt. No matter where you are on the Gulf and or East Coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

Can someone tell me why the TX/LA border is safe from Gustav? These Mexican named storms have me a little gun-shy. Rita, Humberto, Eduoard and now Gustav. If they had named it Geoff or Grady, I don't think I'd be holding my breath right now.

So, all you weather gurus...why isn't the upper TX coast at risk?

It could be. It is just simply to early to tell where this is going to end up.

[ROCK]

Gonna get interesting....

first off thanks to whoever posted this link for sat pix
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/
Been on the site regularly but never for sat...great updates and frequency.

So no good recon until after midnight, sun is going down, and the G4 does not sample upper air until tomorrow afternoon....going to be a lot of speculation and thoughts...fun!

meanwhile the hurricane hunters are out on US1 with their boot drive to collect coins for JetA...just kidding...come on up to KMIA or KFLL...the majors are getting it for 4 on wholesale buys....Southwest for 3 cuz they hedged..grin.

ADD satellite page updates every 15 minutes, and has fine display resolution. I used it almost exclusively when Fay was over Florida.

Nice site Ed, thanks.....and I mean that in a very sincere way....

[cpdaman]

correct me if i'm wrong but the first cone was thru 8am sat (with the storm ending on a WNW heading)

the second cone was thru 8pm sat (with the storm on the same wnw heading) so it will be a bit less than 180 miles change since you should subtract 12 hours movement when comparing to the first track (or add 12 hours from the first cone (given the wnw heading) and compare to the second cone.

[carversteve]

Where will Gustav be by Labor Day Weekend ? We have to make a decision about the Beach(Gulf Shores), and soon, concerning this weekend. Will Gust. be close enough to the Gulf coast to ruin holiday plans?

edit: just saw the 3 posts ahead of mine, I was typing while they were being posted.

It is really annoying when some people only care about Gustav ruining there holiday weekend..I think we need to be worried about the possible destruction he may cause and trying to prevent loss of life!!!

[ak8s]

Can someone tell me why the TX/LA border is safe from Gustav? These Mexican named storms have me a little gun-shy. Rita, Humberto, Eduoard and now Gustav. If they had named it Geoff or Grady, I don't think I'd be holding my breath right now.

So, all you weather gurus...why isn't the upper TX coast at risk?

Texas coast IS at risk, but its slight atm. Gustav would move around periphery of HP ridge progged to move over florida into eastern gulf. Cliff's notes answer.

Haha! Cliff notes. I guess I should have asked for the 'first grade picture book' answer. I like to see what you are talking about. Most of the weather talk goes over my head that is why I seldom post. (yay, post 3!)

*waves to southerngale*

[cpdaman]

anyone notice the convection in the exteme NE corner is headed North east with the trough, seems like it is robbing the storm of some moisture

like i said earlier the west 2/3 appear under the influence of the ridge/ with the northeastern part under the trough

[ak8s]

Can someone tell me why the TX/LA border is safe from Gustav? These Mexican named storms have me a little gun-shy. Rita, Humberto, Eduoard and now Gustav. If they had named it Geoff or Grady, I don't think I'd be holding my breath right now.

So, all you weather gurus...why isn't the upper TX coast at risk?

Gustav is Swedish.

OH! Well, nevermind. (In my best Emily Litella voice)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can someone tell me why the TX/LA border is safe from Gustav? These Mexican named storms have me a little gun-shy. Rita, Humberto, Eduoard and now Gustav. If they had named it Geoff or Grady, I don't think I'd be holding my breath right now.

So, all you weather gurus...why isn't the upper TX coast at risk?

Gustav is Swedish.

Gustavo is Spanish. I suspect Gustav is also French. I thought WMO guidelines for the Atlantic were English, French and Spanish names, to reflect the populations living in potentially affected areas. You'd think Ivan was Russian, but explain Ivan Rodriguez?


BTW, I think Gustav may already be feeling Hispaniola. Looks like orographic enhancement with storms firing on eastern side of Cordillera Central, and a loss of convection of the Western side with air that is downsloping and heading offshore. See WV loop

[Nexus]

Towers shooting up around the eye-like feature:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170045.GIF

[Patrick99]

If Gustav went right up the entire spine of Cuba per the 5PM track, isn't there a good chance that it would be completely disrupted? Cuba isn't exactly a small island; that's a lot of land, if a storm enters at that point and travels WNW, staying over land all the way. Why would it be such a given that there would be much of anything left by the time it hit the Gulf?

[pojo]

It shouldn't matter what nationality Gustav is.........

he is a potentially damaging near Hurricane strength tropical cyclone.