ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

why is your brighter than my >>>>>

oh did i already mention that the location of that convection that is begininng to fire is exactly where we want it to if we want to look for something to close off

i think i mentioned that already .. i was waiting for it to happend..

[CourierPR]

Well! 92L seems to be holding its own pretty well this evening. It definitely didn't die overnight...

So far, Bones remains in sick bay.

[HURAKAN]

Well! 92L seems to be holding its own pretty well this evening. It definitely didn't die overnight...

Another d word applies, dormant.

Like a volcano, you know it will erupt but while it looks quiet people think it's dead.

[txag2005]

While it probably will not develop for the next couple days, it looks like this thing is not going to die off like 93L anytime soon.

Late development like that will be a bit scary for the landfall location, especially if there is rapid intensification. There will be little time for people to prepare and leave if necessary, since most people have no idea whats going on in the tropics unless there is a TS or Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Bones is in check A few said this morning that the convection would collapse completly in a few hours.

[HURAKAN]

why is your brighter than my >>>>>

My computer has its own star making things brighter!!! j/k It's called Photobucket.

All the images I post are saved in Photobucket or imageshack before being posted.

[gatorcane]

While it probably will not develop for the next couple days, it looks like this thing is not going to die off like 93L anytime soon.

Late development like that will be a bit scary for the landfall location, especially if there is rapid intensification. There will be little time for people to prepare and leave if necessary, since most people have no idea whats going on in the tropics unless there is a TS or Hurricane.

Well that possibility certainly exists. I have a difficult time communicating to nonweather enthusiasts about the fact this invest needs to be closely watched because if there is not a TD or CONE, it seems many people don't care (even though, as Sandy stated, we have a feeling it is about to erupt).

[fci]

While it probably will not develop for the next couple days, it looks like this thing is not going to die off like 93L anytime soon.

Late development like that will be a bit scary for the landfall location, especially if there is rapid intensification. There will be little time for people to prepare and leave if necessary, since most people have no idea whats going on in the tropics unless there is a TS or Hurricane.

If you are referring to South Florida as a possible landfall location, if a TD with potential for RI is headed our way it will get a lot of attention from the media including during Olympics coverage. People will not be caught by surprise.

[Aric Dunn]

winds now NW at dominica
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TDCF.html

nnw in quadaloupe

[HURAKAN]

If you are referring to South Florida as a possible landfall location, if a TD with potential for RI is headed our way it will get a lot of attention from the media including during Olympics coverage. People will not be caught by surprise.

We did a lot of preparations for Ernesto even thought it was weak TS when it left Cuba. Local TV stations were live for about 72 hours.

[N2Storms]

[quote="gatorcane"][quote="txag2005"]While it probably will not develop for the next couple days, it looks like this thing is not going to die off like 93L anytime soon.

Late development like that will be a bit scary for the landfall location, especially if there is rapid intensification. There will be little time for people to prepare and leave if necessary, since most people have no idea whats going on in the tropics unless there is a TS or Hurricane.[/quote]

Well that possibility certainly exists. I have a difficult time communicating to nonweather enthusiasts about the fact this invest needs to be closely watched because if there is not a TD or CONE, it seems many people don't care (even though, as Sandy stated, we have a feeling it is about to erupt).[/quote]



NWS In Tallahassee doesn't seem too concerned that it will affect the Panhandle and really, as of right now I would have to totally agree w / them. Most likely will stay either well south or east of our area but it is still going to be extremely interesting to watch and see how this all plays out.

[gatorcane]

If you are referring to South Florida as a possible landfall location, if a TD with potential for RI is headed our way it will get a lot of attention from the media including during Olympics coverage. People will not be caught by surprise.

We did a lot of preparations for Ernesto even thought it was weak TS when it left Cuba.

Good example Sandy, recall NHC mentioned Ernesto could undergo RI and become a major before hitting South Florida. It didn't happen but there was that possibility.

[txag2005]

While it probably will not develop for the next couple days, it looks like this thing is not going to die off like 93L anytime soon.

Late development like that will be a bit scary for the landfall location, especially if there is rapid intensification. There will be little time for people to prepare and leave if necessary, since most people have no idea whats going on in the tropics unless there is a TS or Hurricane.

If you are referring to South Florida as a possible landfall location, if a TD with potential for RI is headed our way it will get a lot of attention from the media including during Olympics coverage. People will not be caught by surprise.

You bring up a good point. If there is a place where this stuff is taken serious, its Florida.

[CronkPSU]

school starts Monday in Florida...so that should increase the odds that this thing at least develops to the point where school boards are going to have to make some tough calls for the first week of school

luckily I run a summer camp and my last day is Friday so I'll basically be on vacation/hurricane prep all next week

[haml8]

what happened to 93L? It disappeared or is it in the process of being upgraded? Hey Mike good to hear from ya again

93L was deactivated.It may well be again back if the system reorganizes.The thread is at Talking tropics forum.

I thought someone on this site said 92L is disorganizing and failing, time to move on to 93L? How quickly things change I guess. One day NEXT, then the following day YIKES!

I am thankful of the pro mets on here keep us all in check and focused on the right systems.

[KWT]

The thing to note is look at how quickly thje convection has weakened again:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Same thing that hpapened yesterday around this time and this should delay any further development but it won't prevent future development of course.

[HURAKAN]

oh..

interesting ...

This is what I can do.

Original:


Retouched: (Brightness increased to 150 in Contrast)


See the difference.

[Aric Dunn]

The thing to note is look at how quickly thje convection has weakened again:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Same thing that hpapened yesterday around this time and this should delay any further development but it won't prevent future development of course.

hmmmmmmmmmmm...............

I see new convection firing ........ it a very suspiscious spot.. ..ssssshhhhhh,,,,,,,,, dont tell anyone you might scare it away..........92l is a hermet crab it gets scared when to many people are watching

[gatorcane]

The outflow is probably the key story of today for 92L. As members have mentioned, it has improved tremendously throughout the day. If you look at this loop, you can see the "fanning" of the high clouds going around in a clockwise direction around the blob. That is a sign an anticyclone is building over the system.

Just looking for the next convection burst near the "LLC" wherever that may be and some gradual organization could be underway -- slow and steady for the next 48 hours though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

The thing to note is look at how quickly thje convection has weakened again:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Same thing that hpapened yesterday around this time and this should delay any further development but it won't prevent future development of course.

However,compared to yesterday at this time,when it was almost nonexsistant,today looks better in that regard.