ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[southerngale]

You forgot the third group...those of us reading these posts/lurking and waiting for the official word from the NHC.

That's the group I'm in. I won't be surprised with either call.

bastardi also fails to follow the rules of meteorology 99.5% of the time

Perhaps, but he is the senior tropical forecaster at AccuWx, and a scholarship wrestler at PSU, and won the over 40 division of the drug free body building championship 4 or 5 years ago.

Oh boy... I foresee a new avatar for someone.

[cheezyWXguy]

bastardi also fails to follow the rules of meteorology 99.5% of the time

Perhaps, but he is the senior tropical forecaster at AccuWx, and a scholarship wrestler at PSU, and won the over 40 division of the drug free body building championship 4 or 5 years ago.

haha is that a joke?

[Brent]

bastardi also fails to follow the rules of meteorology 99.5% of the time

Perhaps, but he is the senior tropical forecaster at AccuWx, and a scholarship wrestler at PSU, and won the over 40 division of the drug free body building championship 4 or 5 years ago.

Okay, this thread just got weird.

[CrazyC83]

Let's get back on topic.

Anyway, I think the STDS at about 4:30-4:45 will tell the tale if it is not TD3.

[curtadams]

I don't know, I almost think I see two circulations, one closer to Barbados, one around 56ºW, or, a very disorganized system.

That's what I see too. The center near Barbados has been formed by the leading blob of convection, the one near 56W is the "old" 94L center. Both are obscured under high cloud.

[Just Joshing You]

Hi, thx for the avatar.

[Ed Mahmoud]

haha is that a joke?

No, Bastardi competes in drug free body building championships. I don't know who would beat whom in a metereological arm wrestling contest, Stacy Stewart or Joe B.

If there is a dominant center, it is closer to 55ºW, IMHO. I wonder if the plane will fly that far East...

[Hurricaneman]

bastardi also fails to follow the rules of meteorology 99.5% of the time

Perhaps, but he is the senior tropical forecaster at AccuWx, and a scholarship wrestler at PSU, and won the over 40 division of the drug free body building championship 4 or 5 years ago.

haha is that a joke?

That pic is not doctored in anyway

anywho, I think 94l has a closed low but is not quite a depression yet because it looks a little bit too disorganized

[curtadams]

They are likely basing off the ships model which just recently came out, bringing it to a cat 2 in 5 days...Im not so sure about that. Shear is strong, but someone please tell me if there is evidence of shear decreasing

Strong in the northern Caribbean but moderate to mild in the southern Caribbean http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html A TS could develop just fine if it stays to the south.

[curtadams]

If there is a dominant center, it is closer to 55ºW, IMHO. I wonder if the plane will fly that far East...

That's what I was thinking earlier but on RGB low clouds in between seem to be moving N. So maybe not. Disorganized, as you say.

[KWT]

Yep curtadams right now it would survive down there but I do believe the models ramp up shear even further south ove rthe next few days as 94L comes on through. Still its an nteresting little system this one!

As has been said this is a very tricky system to tell whats going on, we seemto get one or two of these each year that look close but not quite there!

[alienstorm]

There is a possibilty that a new center is forming further east near 57W

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see a 'new' poster, who has probably been here before and banned, and came back with a new IP being banned again.


That is an unofficial prediction, but I'm about 90% sure.

[Just Joshing You]

I hope you're not talking about me. I'm not new.. I lurk only.

[RL3AO]

I hope you're not talking about me. I'm not new.. I lurk only.

He wasn't.

[tgenius]

I find myself in the not developing camp as well; It's a tough call either way, but I don't think it will pose a risk to CONUS... but of course that's just my 2c.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see a 'new' poster, who has probably been here before and banned, and came back with a new IP being banned again.


That is an unofficial prediction, but I'm about 90% sure.

100% sure...

[Derek Ortt]

An STDS is valid for 6 hours. Furthermore, it was superceeded by the TWO

a new statement will be released by 8 p.m.

[CrazyC83]

STDS just disappeared...NHC announcement imminent.

STDS's expire after 6 hours. A new STDS is likely coming (or the first advisory package if they decide that it is a tropical depression).

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see the plane was between 57 and 58ºW. I wish they'd hunt for a center just a shade further East, maybe near 13ºN and 57ºW.

That said, this looks less organized now than a couple of hours ago.