ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[PTrackerLA]

Dear 94L, if you're not going to form today please go away. You've had your chance now move on! Looks more disorganized this afternoon, now I need to figure out what's going on in the southwestern carib.

[Thunder44]

I would expect the NHC to come out with a statement very soon if they already decided to not upgrade. Too much time between now and the next TWO. The plane seems to still be in the storm investigating.

[Brent]

Dear 94L, if you're not going to form today please go away. You've had your chance now move on!

I have to agree, I hate these type of storms. I really think it's now or never honestly.

[Ivanhater]

New model guidance just out:

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080716 1800 UTC

Strong signal for no upgrade.

Can we wait til recon is done please? We have the best possible information coming in of what is actually going on with recon...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bastardi just posted that NHC should call this a 30 to 40 knot TD/TS and be done with it.


I don't know, I almost think I see two circulations, one closer to Barbados, one around 56ºW, or, a very disorganized system.

[Derek Ortt]

Dear 94L, if you're not going to form today please go away. You've had your chance now move on! Looks more disorganized this afternoon, now I need to figure out what's going on in the southwestern carib.

more outflow boundaries in the SW carib as well

[KWT]

Yeah someone said the same thing earlier Ed about possibly two circulations.

cheezyWXguy, yeah though for a system that is barely closed if it is closed at all 20-25kts is a big problem.

[gatorcane]

seems like we have two general camps of view/thoughts reading through these posts:

one camp (made of mostly amateurs) are seeing development into a depression

another camp (made of mostly pro mets) are not seeing development into a depression.

Hmmm...

[Derek Ortt]

bastardi also fails to follow the rules of meteorology 99.5% of the time

[wx247]

You forgot the third group...those of us reading these posts/lurking and waiting for the official word from the NHC.

[jusjas]

Hi all, this is jusjas from Trinidad port of spain. Skies overcast, strong gusts of wind and would you believe we are recovering from low level flooding in some areas. I am curious to know how invest 94l will treat us.
Bye for now
Jusjas

[cycloneye]

You forgot the third group...those of us reading these posts/lurking and waiting for the official word from the NHC.

The majority!.

[rblock06]

Accuweather is already saying this could become a hurricane in the central Caribbean and strike the Yucatan. Probably going out a little to far as usual

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=3

[wxman57]

New model guidance just out:

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080716 1800 UTC

Strong signal for no upgrade.

But why does it show 18z?

That's the initial time of the run, the 0-hr. It appears to be a re-run of the model an hour after the first time they put it out. Why? I don't know why they ran it again.

[Ed Mahmoud]

bastardi also fails to follow the rules of meteorology 99.5% of the time

Perhaps, but he is the senior tropical forecaster at AccuWx, and a scholarship wrestler at PSU, and won the over 40 division of the drug free body building championship 4 or 5 years ago.

[cheezyWXguy]

Accuweather is already saying this could become a hurricane in the central Caribbean and strike the Yucatan. Probably going out a little to far as usual

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=3

They are likely basing off the ships model which just recently came out, bringing it to a cat 2 in 5 days...Im not so sure about that. Shear is strong, but someone please tell me if there is evidence of shear decreasing

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing we should get a STDS in the next 30 minutes or so if it is not going to be upgraded to TD3.

[wxman57]

another camp (made of mostly pro mets) are not seeing development into a depression.

Hmmm...

I'm seeing pro mets on other boards saying there is a closed LLC, and this is not just an open wave. So there is at least a split amongst the message board mets.

As you know, I was a strong proponent of this system 3 days ago when it did appear to have a well-defined LLC. That LLC appeared to dissipate (or become much, much weaker) yesterday. As it is now, undergoing strong shear with minimal convection, it doesn't qualify for upgrading.

[KWT]

rblock06, I can't see it doing anything even close to that, I guess they are igonring the high shear in the Caribbean right now!
It is true that the further south it stays though the less it will come under but even the shear now looks like its enough to stop devlopment. Stil lwe will see, we have to get an upgrade before we can go further and NHC don't seem to be wanting to upgrade yet.

[gatorcane]

it is a depression, it isn't a depression, what is the NHC saying.........



this is truly storm2k at its best