ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Bocadude85]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 58.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.08.2008 20.5N 58.3W WEAK

00UTC 29.08.2008 22.0N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.08.2008 23.4N 63.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2008 24.6N 66.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.08.2008 25.6N 68.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2008 27.1N 70.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 27.9N 71.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 28.0N 71.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2008 28.3N 72.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2008 27.3N 72.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.09.2008 26.4N 73.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2008 24.6N 75.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 03.09.2008 23.3N 77.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE


HWRF really dives her sw now!

[KWT]

Wow thats so like betsy is unreal, nearly the same position as when it made its SW dive as well!

[Typhoon_Willie]

I remember another storm that was nearly ripped apart by a ull and then was trapped by high pressure. It's name was Andrew!

[Bocadude85]

Can someone post the new GFDL please?

[HURAKAN]

457
WHXX04 KWBC 281731
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM HANNA 08L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.2 59.0 300./11.1
6 20.8 59.8 305./ 9.1
12 21.2 60.5 302./ 8.3
18 21.9 61.0 324./ 8.0
24 23.2 62.1 321./16.2
30 24.5 63.2 320./17.3
36 25.8 64.4 316./17.0
42 26.5 65.9 294./14.7
48 26.8 66.7 290./ 7.4
54 27.6 67.3 323./10.0
60 28.0 68.1 299./ 8.2
66 28.4 68.8 295./ 7.1
72 28.6 69.1 318./ 3.8
78 28.9 69.3 310./ 3.3
84 29.0 69.4 319./ .9
90 29.1 69.6 315./ 2.5
96 29.3 69.5 27./ 2.2
102 29.5 69.4 15./ 1.9
108 29.1 69.5 181./ 3.9
114 28.8 69.6 198./ 3.9
120 28.7 69.6 157./ .7
126 28.6 69.7 240./ 1.2

[jlauderdal]

457
WHXX04 KWBC 281731
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM HANNA 08L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.2 59.0 300./11.1
6 20.8 59.8 305./ 9.1
12 21.2 60.5 302./ 8.3
18 21.9 61.0 324./ 8.0
24 23.2 62.1 321./16.2
30 24.5 63.2 320./17.3
36 25.8 64.4 316./17.0
42 26.5 65.9 294./14.7
48 26.8 66.7 290./ 7.4
54 27.6 67.3 323./10.0
60 28.0 68.1 299./ 8.2
66 28.4 68.8 295./ 7.1
72 28.6 69.1 318./ 3.8
78 28.9 69.3 310./ 3.3
84 29.0 69.4 319./ .9
90 29.1 69.6 315./ 2.5
96 29.3 69.5 27./ 2.2
102 29.5 69.4 15./ 1.9
108 29.1 69.5 181./ 3.9
114 28.8 69.6 198./ 3.9
120 28.7 69.6 157./ .7
126 28.6 69.7 240./ 1.2

that looks stalled at the end, that would be interesting

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 281818
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1818 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA (AL082008) 20080828 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080828 1800 080829 0600 080829 1800 080830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 59.6W 21.6N 61.4W 22.8N 63.4W 23.7N 65.1W
BAMD 20.6N 59.6W 21.5N 61.1W 22.7N 62.8W 23.8N 64.6W
BAMM 20.6N 59.6W 21.3N 61.2W 22.3N 63.1W 23.2N 64.8W
LBAR 20.6N 59.6W 21.6N 61.1W 22.9N 62.9W 24.1N 64.9W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 48KTS 53KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 48KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080830 1800 080831 1800 080901 1800 080902 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.6N 66.6W 26.2N 69.5W 27.0N 71.2W 26.2N 73.4W
BAMD 24.9N 66.2W 26.7N 68.5W 27.2N 68.7W 25.9N 68.3W
BAMM 23.9N 66.4W 25.2N 68.9W 25.6N 70.4W 25.2N 71.6W
LBAR 25.2N 66.9W 26.3N 70.4W 25.5N 73.2W 23.5N 75.7W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 69KTS 63KTS
DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 69KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.6N LONCUR = 59.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 57.7W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.4N LONM24 = 57.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SWFLA_CANE]

HWRF and GFDL both have Hanna as a T.S. at the end of the run. HWRF as turns more north at the end and GFDL is nearly stationary.

[Vortex]

12Z UKmet very similar to last nights euro..heading sw in the later periods and implies a significant threat to the bahamas and southern florida/keys.

[gatorcane]

[Vortex]

well the euro was the first to suggest the w/sw turn so i will be looking carefully at todays 12z euro out in about 30 min.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Man that must be one hell of a high the models are seeing..She just bounces off of it..

[decgirl66]

Looks like if it is headed to Florida, it would be South Florida, am I right? Any chance of it taking a turn for central east Florida? Just curious...I am in North Brevard County and already have to take a 20 mile detour to work as part of SR 46 is closed down due to flooding from Ms Fay! (I work in Seminole County) Thanks in advance for any insight!

[Brent]

Edit: 12z Euro takes this between Cuba and Florida as a major hurricane:



Oh yeah, and then it heads to the Gulf and destroys New Orleans(again?)

[gatorcane]

how many runs has the Euro done this? I think we are going on 4-5 runs over 1-2 days in a row in the same place?

[Bocadude85]

Euro has been very consistent with a large hurricane hitting Florida...

[93superstorm]

Euro taking hanna between florida and cuba into Gulf aiming for N.O:

[JPmia]

The EURO does not slam south florida in that run...but it gets close and then goes on destroy whats left of Louisiana after Gustav.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082812!!/

[DESTRUCTION5]

The EURO does not slam south florida in that run...but it gets close and then goes on destroy whats left of Louisiana after Gustav.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082812!!/

That is thefriggin sickest Model run in History..

[KWT]

Looks like ECM has this hitting Cuba just then going into the gulf and heading for LA yet again, that would be like what Florida had to deal with when they had the 1-2 from Frances and Jeanne...