ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

As I expected, mid level dry air is an issue, and convection is weakening because of the dry air intrusion. However, this will not inhibit slow, gradual development as time passes.

[HURAKAN]

I think convection is weakening because there is no LLC and we're in DMIN. Convection should increase in the morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Honeyko

not quite there, but getting close...


MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts


Way OT again, after Alabama football question, but I am guessing you could be female, and my wife (who is otherwise perfect) and most females seem less into weather than most men.


Southerngale being most awesome exception. Ditto Cajun Mama, and any other women who could suspend my account during peak August action.

[RL3AO]

New Orleans sounding shows that mid level dry air quite well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New Orleans sounding shows that mid level dry air quite well.

GFDL predicts poof-ation.


I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be completley surprised.

(sp? on completely...)

[Steve]

>>I think the MLC will work it's way down to the surface and thats where the LLC will form.

Why do you think this?

The trough is already at the surface, it's just not closed off yet.

Props to Ivanhater for the mention of the Bushwacker Fest. That's one of the best drinks ever and certainly a better topic than SEC SEC SEC football.

Pressure here about 29.89 but I haven't checked yesterday's obs to see how that measures up.

Steve

[Ptarmigan]

Not surprised that disturbance in the GOM got an invest. This one bears watching because it is closer to us than 90L and 99L.



I think it will be a TD at least or strong TS at most. Would be nice to see some rain though regardless if it develops or not.

[Honeyko]

The system has already shifted notably south of those model initiation points.

Hmmm....maybe there's a mid-level circulation to the east of that strongest return....

[Ivanhater]

>>I think the MLC will work it's way down to the surface and thats where the LLC will form.

Why do you think this?

The trough is already at the surface, it's just not closed off yet.

Props to Ivanhater for the mention of the Bushwacker Fest. That's one of the best drinks ever and certainly a better topic than SEC SEC SEC football.

Pressure here about 29.89 but I haven't checked yesterday's obs to see how that measures up.

Steve

Lol Steve, Of course Ill be out there again tonight

As this pulls further away from the coast, I think it will get better organized

[Derek Ortt]

you need vertical shear to allow for a dry air intrusion

[HouTXmetro]

>>I think the MLC will work it's way down to the surface and thats where the LLC will form.

Why do you think this?

The trough is already at the surface, it's just not closed off yet.

Props to Ivanhater for the mention of the Bushwacker Fest. That's one of the best drinks ever and certainly a better topic than SEC SEC SEC football.

Pressure here about 29.89 but I haven't checked yesterday's obs to see how that measures up.

Steve

So much for diminishing convection. It's Refiring over the MLC.

[SunnyThoughts]

Ivanhater, on my way out to the beach tonight too for a few ...gotta love the festival. Invest looking quite nice today..enjoy the rain for those who need it concerning this system, hope thats all that becomes of it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Semi-OT

radar on this shows tornado warning NE of Birmingham...

[tolakram]

The pics just before sunset are the best, I saved this one.

Look at the new convection near the center.



and the rainbow.

[jhamps10]

Semi-OT

radar on this shows tornado warning NE of Birmingham...

care to guess the directions again... thats west of Birmingham not NE. oh well, back on topic but for an invest it has that nice cyclonic shape for development. and correct me if I am wrong here, but isn't the waters near Galveston right around 90*?

[LSU2001]

I was about to post that very image. IMHO it looks like it is getting that fist/comma shape to it that usually signifies strengthening. The new convection bloom may signal a consolidation cycle that will allow the invest to get a closed LLC and become a depression.
JMHO,
TIm

[HouTXmetro]

I thihk the new convection means this is ready to take off.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, on my way out to the beach tonight too for a few ...gotta love the festival. Invest looking quite nice today..enjoy the rain for those who need it concerning this system, hope thats all that becomes of it.

Oh cool, sunny..If you see me (thats me in the avatar) say hey!

Yep, new convection firing, seems to be due south of Pensacola...

[jhamps10]

I was about to post that very image. IMHO it looks like it is getting that fist/comma shape to it that usually signifies strengthening. The new convection bloom may signal a consolidation cycle that will allow the invest to get a closed LLC and become a depression.
JMHO,
TIm

yeah, here is a nice clear image courtesy of grlevelx3 of the Eglin AFB radar

[TexWx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

boom...