Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[hawkeh]

grrrr.... the SAL is such a nuisance... why do this waves form at such higher latitudes than before?.. this season is getting to be boring...

Were not even in August yet man, we've had an extremely busy July so far.

I'm hoping this ends up developing and goes fishing, shoot some swell our way

[CrazyC83]

I think 2005 changed everyone's expectations for hurricane seasons...

[RL3AO]

I think 2005 changed everyone's expectations for hurricane seasons...

It changed peoples percecption of "normal".

[Derek Ortt]

maybe because the convection is a little weaker than yesterday

also, Dvorak numbers could be a little higher before upgrading

[Jason_B]

I think 2005 changed everyone's expectations for hurricane seasons...

Anybody who's been following the tropics for much longer than a season or two know that 2005 was a once in a lifetime occurrence. I think it's those who are fairly new to tracking hurricanes that think 2005 is the norm.

[alienstorm]

Latest satellite loop gives an indication that 98L might be resuming a more westward track. If you look at the steering levels for this type od disturbance it should resume a westward track with a possible dip to the wsw down the road.

Time will tell

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/De ... /index.htm

[Category 5]

[gatorcane]

Latest satellite loop gives an indication that 98L might be resuming a more westward track. If you look at the steering levels for this type od disturbance it should resume a westward track with a possible dip to the wsw down the road.

Time will tell

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/De ... /index.htm

Indeed my forecast reasoning from last night which called for a west bend to commence today seems to be right on "track" (no pun intended)

I surmise that TAFB sees more ridging (or a wave embedded in a deep easterly low-level flow) to show 98L pretty much ending up at 16N, 42W in 72 hours, or nearly 270-280 from where 98L is currently albeit as a weak cyclone or vigorous wave with attached low.

[HURAKAN]

[Jason_B]

Best looking "invest" I've ever seen.

[bvigal]

Well, if a strong ridge is going to build in at 25-35N, it better HURRY. Otherwise, we're looking at a

[coreyl]

I am reading that some people are saying it could move in a westward or wsw motion? Could somebody tell me why?

[cycloneye]

Well, if a strong ridge is going to build in at 25-35N, it better HURRY. Otherwise, we're looking at a

And my question is,where is that strong ridge as 98L keeps climbing in latitud,maybe bypassing most of the CV islands.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, if a strong ridge is going to build in at 25-35N, it better HURRY. Otherwise, we're looking at a

And my question is,where is that strong ridge as 98L keeps climbing in latitud,maybe bypassing most of the CV islands.

Im not sure, but if the steering currents are the same or similar to last night, a wnw motion seems likely for the next 6-12 hours, with a possible bend to the wsw, much like what 97L did.

[CrazyC83]

Best looking "invest" I've ever seen.

Not quite - the invest that eventually became Vince had an open eye while not yet classified as anything...

[stevetampa33614]

heh i remember than. Took forever for the NHC to say it something other than an invest. Hurricanes dont form up there remember

[RL3AO]

Best looking "invest" I've ever seen.

Not quite - the invest that eventually became Vince had an open eye while not yet classified as anything...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc05/ATL/24L.VINCE/vis/geo/1km/20051009.1600.msg1.x.vis1km.96LINVEST.25kts-NAmb-340N-190W.jpg

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

Having brought up the discussion, I'll be eating crow for dinner if this develops an eye before the NHC picks it up...

[Aric Dunn]

well interestingly all guidance (global) and current synoptics would suggest a turn to west today followed by possibly just south of west.. but who knows..