ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[seahawkjd]

So where exactly is the center in relation to land right now? Sorry, just got up and trying to get a grasp on what its doing.

[storms in NC]

We have some bands coming in here now But no rain yet.

If the low has move to the east some that would put Myrtle Beach, SC to Wilm NC for a partly land fall. JIMO only

[cpdaman]

So where exactly is the center in relation to land right now? Sorry, just got up and trying to get a grasp on what its doing.

good question. bouy observations to me indicate it is very close to land

linked noaa discussions indicated a new low near 31.2 79.8 or so may be in the process of taking over.

but until this bouy changes from a moderate south wind (over to NE or so) i don't see how the redevelop theory could be reality http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1

[Ed Mahmoud]

i'm on the coast in north carolina. chances of getting attacked by a large reptile are definitely there. we just tend to look before we swim.

There are supposedly alligators in the bayous around Houston, but I've never heard of a human attacked around here.


Maybe Texans are just smart enough to swim at the pool or the beach.

[hiflyer]

"THE SABSOON NETWORK OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST"

More here
http://www.skio.usg.edu/Skioresearch/ph ... /index.php

[KWT]

If you look at the floater loop you can clearly see where the center is at the moment, it seems to have been drifting eastwards a little bit though there may also be some NE movement as well its really tought to say as it really is only drifting at the moment.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There are no plans to send a plane into that region today, as highest winds are currently 15 to 20 mph and there are no signs of it developing any tropical characteristics.

Regards,

Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
Meteorologist
National Hurricane Center
Miami, Florida

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
> I see yesterday's POD didn't see a mission into the system off the SE
> Coast until tomorrow. However, seeing that something seems to be
> brewing, which may indeed threaten the US coast this weekend, do you
> think we'll get a resources permitting invest into 96L today?
>
>
>
> Edward M. Mahmoud
> Production Engineer
> EXXXXX Operating Company
> 713 953-xxxx
> Ed_Mahmoud@EXXXX.net

Bummer

[KWT]

Well I think Mr.Feltgen is going to be proved a little bit wrong with this system not sure how it can be claime dits not got tropical properties when convection is flaring up right near the LLC. Still who knows!

[BUD]

Lets not forget about in 2004 Gaston did the same thing and was a Hurricane in 48 hours time.

[senorpepr]

I'm not surprised, honestly. The circulation is well exposed still and surface observations don't support an upgrade. Recon would tell you the same thing.

[funster]

Well I think Mr.Feltgen is going to be proved a little bit wrong with this system not sure how it can be claime dits not got tropical properties when convection is flaring up right near the LLC. Still who knows!

Yes, I would have thought this one was going to be an obvious disturbance to at least become a depression.

[jrod]

"The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products."

I am seeing a more defined center on radar that is drifting to the south. With the proximiny to land and the lack of hot water availible near the coast I am still not expecting much from this area. Look at the heat potential charts, the LLC will have to move east to tap into the gulf steam. The nearshore waters are in the mid-70s and dropping with the offshore winds causing more upwelling. All I see is a rainmaker.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not surprised, honestly. The circulation is well exposed still and surface observations don't support an upgrade. Recon would tell you the same thing.

Unofficial, but I think this is darn close to being a tropical depression. I think the remnants of the old front, while still having drier air in the area, have faded enough this isn't really sub-tropical. But I guess it could be sub-tropical. But that doesn't really matter.

If aircraft had run in there late this afternoon, and found what I suspect, a tropical depression, and advisories were initiated at 5 pm, or maybe 8 pm, as a special, depending on timing, watches could have been issued.


Granted, this probably won't ever make hurricane strength, and a 12 or 18 hour delay in issuing watches/warnings isn't huge in this case, except for maybe small craft, whose operators should be smart enough to heed locally issued marine forecasts anyway, but a watch might keep one or two foolish boaters out of trouble by making it onto local TV and radio.

Again, my opinion that this is darn near being a depression is unofficial, and I am not (sadly) a meteorologist.

[jrod]

Also look at all the dry air around the system. We all have been suprised in the past by development or no development, but it appears to me that there is little supporting this becoming a depression anytime soon. We'll see how persistant this area is....

[orion]

Sat image with stations showing windbarbs...



and same image with radar...

[KWT]

There certainly i dry air present however there was also some dry air with Humberto and that didn't exactly stop that from bombing.
There is clearly some strong convection is that eastern side and as long as the LLC doesn't get cut off from that mass then there is no reason why this can't develop. Heat content isn't amazing but we've seen Bertha become a tropical storm over pretty much no heat content at all!

[jrod]

The eastern side is over water with a much higher heat content and is my guess of why it is strong on that side. It has potential and I have seen better organzed systems go poof and worse go boom.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll repeat, dry air sometimes hampers systems that try to spin up right before moving into Texas, creating "half a storm", with low clouds and isolated showers East of the center, a partially or completely exposed LLC, and all the deep convection over or East of the center.

Without much convection to mix down stronger winds above the surface, West side is just breezy, while the wind and rain is on the East side.


Important if this moves North or North-Northeast and makes landfall with coastline East of the center.


In my humble and unofficial opinion.

[KWT]

jrod, indeed we have the gulf waters over there which may be helping to boost the convection, interestingly mos tof the models has this heading NE and so whilst it probably doesn't quite reach those warm waters it probably does stay in water.

[orion]

Latest from Morehead City, NC NWS... they are still thinking it's going to move slowly up the coast and be mostly an offshore event. Although they admit it is "tricky" if 96L stays far enough from land over warm waters.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1050 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GIVEN WEAK STEERING THE LOW TO THE S WILL MOVE SLOWLY WITH MDLS
SHOWING IT STAYING CLOSE THE THE CST AS IT MOVES MAINLY NNE.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE GFS WITH INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA SAT INTO SUN WHEN THE LOW MOVES CLOSE TO NC. KEPT LIKELY
POPS CONFINED TO SRN AND IMD CSTL SITES WHERE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED TO BE BETTER. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLOW MOTION OF
LOW SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME TRAINING OF SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOW CLOSELY FOR
INCREASING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPCLY IF IT STAYS OVER WARM WTR
AND DOESNT MOVE OVER LAND. HIGHS WILL CONT AROUND 90 INLAND AND N
SAT AND SUN WITH LESS RAIN POTENTIAL WITH MAINLY MID 80S CST.

and from the marine forecast...

REST OF MARINE FCST IS TRICKY AS IT HINGES HEAVILY ON EVENTUAL TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES NOW OFF GA COAST...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NAM/ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER SOLUTION AND KEEPING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.
SE/S WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY.
LIKELY TO SEE SC CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE PUT
SC SEAS IN FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW KEPT WINDS UNDER 20 KT.