TC Bertha

[RL3AO]

[Ivanhater]

Ive been taking the wait and see approach with this one, and I think chances are good. We dont have a big blob that moved off the coast and fizzle when it hit the water, we have storms firing on there own (good convergence). So it is able to sustain itself on its own, not just 1 complex thunderstorm that dies off when it hits the water. As well with the outstanding model support, this has a great shot IMHO.

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

here is a animation for everyone.. nice burst of convection starting..

[jabber]

code orange now

Ohhh... thank you great one..... boy them were the days.

[wxman57]

Ive been taking the wait and see approach with this one, and I think chances are good. We dont have a big blob that moved off the coast and fizzle when it hit the water, we have storms firing on there own (good convergence). So it is able to sustain itself on its own, not just 1 complex thunderstorm that dies off when it hits the water. As well with the outstanding model support, this has a great shot IMHO.

It does concern me that convection has flared up a bit the past 2-3 hours, but the key is if that convection can increase and persist through tomorrow. As for the model projections (DSHP) of intensity, when have they not forecast development? Most invests never develop, yet the intensity models forecast development on almost every run.

Regardless, I'm quite confident this system will be no more than an irritant in that we'll only have to issue advisories for a storm well out to sea. The 00Z position is already at 12N/19W. I don't know of any storm that's reached the Caribbean from that far north at 19W. And there should be several opportunities for it to turn safely out to sea and not be a threat to the eastern U.S. (regardless of one famous met's somewhat wishful thinking) in the next week or two. He must not have to work the 4th if it develops.

What I don't want to see is another storm like Alberto of 2000 that just doesn't know when to give up and die.

[Aric Dunn]

ok this should work now



decent flare up .. lets if it persists

[jabber]

I would agree with most of the folks here that say it will turn out if and thats a big if it develops. Sure fun to watch nature at work.

[HURAKAN]

That's pretty good.

[Ivanhater]

Ive been taking the wait and see approach with this one, and I think chances are good. We dont have a big blob that moved off the coast and fizzle when it hit the water, we have storms firing on there own (good convergence). So it is able to sustain itself on its own, not just 1 complex thunderstorm that dies off when it hits the water. As well with the outstanding model support, this has a great shot IMHO.

It does concern me that convection has flared up a bit the past 2-3 hours, but the key is if that convection can increase and persist through tomorrow. As for the model projections (DSHP) of intensity, when have they not forecast development? Most invests never develop, yet the intensity models forecast development on almost every run.

Regardless, I'm quite confident this system will be no more than an irritant in that we'll only have to issue advisories for a storm well out to sea. The 00Z position is already at 12N/19W. I don't know of any storm that's reached the Caribbean from that far north at 19W. And there should be several opportunities for it to turn safely out to sea and not be a threat to the eastern U.S. (regardless of one famous met's somewhat wishful thinking) in the next week or two. He must not have to work the 4th if it develops.

What I don't want to see is another storm like Alberto of 2000 that just doesn't know when to give up and die.

Haaa..very true Wxman. I remember the last time I was tracking around the 4th..Dennis 05..but yeah, it has passed the 1st phase imo of being able to sustain itself without 1 huge thunderstorm complex that looks great but dies as soon as it hits the water. As you say will it be able to keep it up? As far as the ships, I honestly havnt looked at them much, brings it to a cat 2 I believe, but the globals seem to like the development chances, at least in the near term.

Track wise, looks like there will be a weakness, but the ridge might build back in later on, depending on what global model you look at. Regardless, wouldnt that be something to have a cape verde storm the start of July? Those warmer waters off Africa has something to do with that I would imagine.

[cycloneye]

And look also at the big bombing of convection behind 92L.

[tropicsPR]

This image is updated every 15 minutes and has a nice animation

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

[Aric Dunn]

8 images is all i can do or the image gets to small since i can only host a certain size file...

this is a animation with a new image from the last on and a little faster..



but its better than the alternative.. i.e no real floater yet

[Aric Dunn]

interesting to note and a sign of organization.. the band developing to the north .. and that is going to be a good burst of convection tonight i believe! so we have a band to the south and to the north now its going to be a interesting night ..

[Eyewall]

code orange now

Ohhh... thank you great one..... boy them were the days.

i dont get it :|

[brunota2003]

code orange now

Ohhh... thank you great one..... boy them were the days.

i dont get it :|

Maybe about the air quality Code Orange? I dunno

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey Aric... I think you're right man. Looks like we may have something in the morning, as long as this convection keeps up.

Especially with the upper level support and low level convergence. I'd be betting on at least a TD within 48 Hours.

[RattleMan]

code orange now

Ohhh... thank you great one..... boy them were the days.

i dont get it :|

IIRC there was a user named The Great One long ago who acted ridiculously.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: And look also at the big bombing of convection behind 92L.

Yeah good looking Cycloneye, waouw a big baby is on fire; amazing waves are everywhere

[MiamiensisWx]

I have rescinded my previous decision and I will resume posting here. I still don't believe it will develop (per my latest analysis), but the challenges of forecasting are manifesting themselves in this situation.