Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[NDG]

Is going to be a close call if it stays overnight over water and eventually moving inland during the day, you guys know that convection is usually at the highest in the morning hours with tropical systems.

And it indeed that is what happened,
This is or was most likely a TD this morning, last night there was a ship that reported 40+ mph NE of the LLC along with 10' waves.

[Derek Ortt]

dvorak

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
31/0545 UTC 17.5N 87.8W T1.5/1.5 90L
30/2345 UTC 16.8N 87.8W TOO WEAK 90L

16.8 to 17.5 hmmm.. 1.5 all we need 2 and we have td

1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb

TIME OUT

A Dvorak number of 2.0 is no way shape or form guarantees anything as a TD! In no way.

What matters is if there is a closed surface circulation. That is all

[gatorcane]

Any chance an LLC tries to reform farther east where the deeper convection seems to be building?

This thing needs to get onshore quickly. I am not particularly comfortable with a system that hangs around in the Gulf of Honduras waiting for the next trough to pick it up. Models are showing a deep trough in the 5-7 day range but 90L should be gone by then (I hope)

In fact the heights across Florida have been falling overnight as the ridge is gradually breaking down. But -- a stronger ridge is building in from the North and west of 90L that we are hoping will move 90L generally westward.

[ftolmsteen]

My money is on the CLP5 model.

[NDG]

Interesting that Euro and the GFS take this system eventually into isthmus of MX or EPAC but living behind a trough of low pressure in the GOH, developing a new system by the end of next week in that area, with a weakness in the central US tracking north into the GOM.

[gatorcane]

This loop shows where the highs are at. There is one off the coast of Cape Canaveral FL and there is another one just NW of Texas that is moving SE. I see a weakness in the Eastern GOM between these two highs. The Texas high should fill the weakness though, at least that is what the initial thinking is. I think the ridge north of 90Ls current position is very weak and steering currents are also weak at the moment

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Chacor]

90L is now off NRL. HOWEVER, I don't see an 01L in ATCF. There is no upgrade unless it's in ATCF.

[NDG]

I guess the LLC moved very slowly NW all night, if Belize City's last wind report was a SW wind and to the north of them Chetumal's last top of the hour report was of calm winds and a pressure of 1006mb.

[Thunder44]

I guess the LLC moved very slowly NW all night, if Belize City's last wind report was a SW wind and to the north of them Chetumal's last top of the hour report was of calm winds and a pressure of 1006mb.

I just saw that. I wonder if the LLC got into bay just east of Chetumal.

[Cryomaniac]

90L is now off NRL. HOWEVER, I don't see an 01L in ATCF. There is no upgrade unless it's in ATCF.

In that case, it's gone altogether, yes?

[NDG]

90L is now off NRL. HOWEVER, I don't see an 01L in ATCF. There is no upgrade unless it's in ATCF.

Something is weird if they still have Alma and took off 90L on NRL.

[NDG]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALMA IS ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
17N88W. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS
MORNING

[cycloneye]

Maybe they are in the proccess to change it to noname.

[Chacor]

Cycloneye, there isn't an 01L on ATCF yet. If they're making it 01L, it should appear on ATCF first.

[NDG]

I guess the LLC moved very slowly NW all night, if Belize City's last wind report was a SW wind and to the north of them Chetumal's last top of the hour report was of calm winds and a pressure of 1006mb.

I just saw that. I wonder if the LLC got into bay just east of Chetumal.

As of from the top of the hour, Belize City is now reporting a SSW wind, Chetumal still reporting calm winds, so the circulation is now moving inland near Chetumal or just to the south of them.

[Stormavoider]

Looking at this visible loop, the center is well over land.

[drezee]

I do beleive the center is near Chetumal. The naval base to the SW of the city is reporting NW winds. That means it is likely heading N of W meaning it should come out near Campeche instead of Sabancuy. This is night and day. If it comes out near Campeche, then you will have a named system on your hands likely.. .

[drezee]

Looking at this visible loop, the center is well over land.

At 1221 UTC, when you made this post, there were no visble pictures available of the center. Not until the 1215 UTC came out at 1225 and that was only one frame...

[NDG]

Looking at this visible loop, the center is well over land.

I can't tell with only two daylight visible shots available. LOL

[cycloneye]

31/1145 UTC 17.7N 88.4W OVERLAND 90L -- Atlantic Ocean