ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Brent]

I wonder if the NHC is waiting for the stock market to close before upgrading? This would be a smart move because it could cause a massive panic and shoot oil higher if this had any chance in hell of making it to the GOM.

No.

[NDG]

Interesting that the center appears to be a lot further S than we thought earlier this morning.

[Thunder44]

One thing that may keep them from upgrading it is they haven't found winds more than 25kts yet.

[KWT]

Indeed NDG, looks the actual center is probably below 12N which is interestin because the estimated position yesterday was 13N!

[senorpepr]

They do have to consider such things because they carry so much clout. What they say is taken much more seriously than any other forecast.

The NHC bases their decisions on meteorology and not the economy/oil prices.

[senorpepr]

Looking at the latest data from recon, I'm wondering... it sort of looks like there are two circulations. One just south of 12°N/58-59°W (roughly) and closer to Barbados.

[KWT]

That would make sense given this is a fairly poorly organised system at the moment, so it may have several centers circulating a broader area of lower pressure?

[TexasStorm]

[HURAKAN]

This system needs another DMAX to rejuvenate itself.

[KWT]

It may just get that as well Hurakan who knows. I don't think it looks to bad right now though convection wise though the convection is still running ahead of the circulation to some extent.

[cheezyWXguy]

This system needs another DMAX to rejuvenate itself.

yeah its a long way away, but I think that will be the dmax that will finally get it to produce consistent convection

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[TexasStorm]

Indeed NDG, looks the actual center is probably below 12N which is interestin because the estimated position yesterday was 13N!

12.3 to be exact:

18 GMT 07/15/08 13.0N 50.1W 25 1012 Invest
00 GMT 07/16/08 12.6N 51.8W 25 1011 Invest
12 GMT 07/16/08 12.2N 56.5W 30 1009 Invest
18 GMT 07/16/08 12.3N 58.7W 30 1009 Invest

[KWT]

Ah ok TexasStorm, still quite alot further south then was estimated yesterday.

cheezyWXguy, IMO its got one more Dmax before shear really ramps up as it enters the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

New model guidance just out:

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080716 1800 UTC

Strong signal for no upgrade.

[lebron23]

OFCI?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

[dwsqos2]

METAR TTCP 161900Z 33006KT 9999 FEW012CB BKN100 BKN270 28/23 Q1012 NOSIG

Wind Obs from Tobago Crown Point: 330 degrees at 6 knots

[NDG]

New model guidance just out:

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080716 1800 UTC

Strong signal for no upgrade.

But why does it show 18z?

[KWT]

Indeed wxman57 but this is an evolving situation, if there is a vortex message come through I think the NHC will run with it straight away IMO.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ah ok TexasStorm, still quite alot further south then was estimated yesterday.

cheezyWXguy, IMO its got one more Dmax before shear really ramps up as it enters the Caribbean.

I agree, but I dont see shear getting higher than 20-25kt...as shown on the ssd shear map. However that much is enough to stop development or even weaken the storm...but I think that after maybe 2 days at its current speed, shear should begin to decrease to maybe 15kt. Not exactly favorable, but better. If this thing ever gets into the gulf, then I would start worrying. However the track is extremely uncertain and such a possibility shouldnt even be considered at this time.