ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[HouTXmetro]

NHC will be forced to move their track East. Don't know what happend tonight but the models are lining up with the consistent GFDL.

[dwg71]

i would think at least 50+ miles or so. still a lot of time, 4+ days.

[Nederlander]

No change in NHC..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023214.shtml?5day?large#contents

[attallaman]

NHC will be forced to move their track East. Don't know what happend tonight but the models are lining up with the consistent GFDL.

What's causing these shifts back to the east? A weakness in the ridge?

[coreyl]

No change in NHC..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023214.shtml?5day?large#contents

The NHC doesn't come out with a new forecast track until 4am cdt.

[Scorpion]

HWRF shows 914 mb landfall around Buras

[Ivanhater]

No change in NHC..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023214.shtml?5day?large#contents

Next track will come out 4am central time and they will base it off these new models

canadian

[weatherguru18]

The track isn't updated unil 5am. I doubt that there will be any huge deviation from what is there now. Those models have been all over the place. Galveston, New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, back to New Orleans, tonight it was Lake Charles and Vermilion Bay and now we're back to Mississippi. Come on. They aren't going to adjust the track every single time the models make wild swings. They look for trends. Look for an eastward shift...but not by much. Perhaps back to where it was earlier this afternoon or yesterday...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Like our met said tonight the models are really starting to lock in on Gustav paying a visit to somewhere on the LA coast albeit east, central, or west. Wont know until Saturday. Btw, he is agreeing with AFM, thinking central to east somewhere between the Pecan Island area to Grand Isle. But of course things can change.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The track isn't updated unil 5am. I doubt that there will be any huge deviation from what is there now. Those models have been all over the place. Galveston, New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, back to New Orleans, tonight it was Lake Charles and Vermilion Bay and now we're back to Mississippi. Come on. They aren't going to adjust the track every single time the models make wild swings. They look for trends. Look for an eastward shift...but not by much. Perhaps back to where it was earlier this afternoon or yesterday...

That is what we are saying guru, nothing dramatic just 50 or so miles to the east.

[Sjones]

New 2am NHC Model...Looks like nothing has changed since the 11pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023214.shtml?5day?large#contents

[dwg71]

New 2am NHC Model...Looks like nothing has changed since the 11pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023214.shtml?5day?large#contents

they dont update forecast until 5am est

every 6 hours

[Ivanhater]

New 2am NHC Model...Looks like nothing has changed since the 11pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023214.shtml?5day?large#contents

They dont change that till the next complete update

[attallaman]

No change in NHC..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023214.shtml?5day?large#contents

The NHC doesn't come out with a new forecast track until 4am cdt.

I just wanted to ask this question, all of the time positions listed on the NHC maps are they EDT or local time depending on where the positions are located on the maps? For example if there's a plot on the map indicating where the storm will be for example south of Mississippi on Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. is that 7:00 p.m. CDT or 7:00 p.m., EDT?

[dwg71]

oh how quickly it can change (or change back)

[Ivanhater]

oh how quickly it can change (or change back)

Lol..doesnt even have GFS on there...NHC on the left side of the 00z models now

[Texashawk]

These models remind me of the hero whose girlfriend has to choose who to shoot: him, or his evil twin brother, with the two being Houston and NO.

"Shoot him!"

"No, he's the one you want!"

"Can't you tell it's me? Shoot HIM!"

"Don't be crazy! Think! He's trying to trick you! Shoot him!"

Just some of my weird imagery at work. Move along.

[dwg71]

houston has not had the model support that nola has, but as of now its nola's turn

[attallaman]

houston has not had the model support that nola has, but as of now its nola's turn

Explain what you mean if you would.

[southerngale]

Well, I hope y'all are right about the eastward shift. Maybe it will stick this time. I saw several of the models on Wunderground (yes, I know there are many others) shift much farther west and it had me a bit concerned... but others shifted farther east. A big split. We spent several hours online searching for available hotel rooms and everywhere we searched or called was booked. We finally found some rooms in Fort Worth! Just precautionary... I don't plan on needing them.
On the plus side... I close on my house in the morning (well, later this morning), so that will finally be out of the way before this enters the GOM.